Football · England League 2 · 24/10, 16:00

Prediction: Gillingham vs Grimsby

Team pages: Gillingham · Grimsby

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.73Total

Gillingham1.22

Grimsby1.51

1X2

30% 28% 43%

Gillingham Draw Grimsby

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 50% Both teams to score 54%

Most likely score

1-1 13%

Recent form · 10 last

Gillingham 4-4-2 (W-D-L)

DDDWWWLDWL

Grimsby 2-4-4 (W-D-L)

DDDDWWLLLL

Head-to-head

Gillingham 0–2–4 Grimsby (6 last)

Gillingham1-4Grimsby
Grimsby1-0Gillingham
Grimsby1-1Gillingham
Gillingham0-1Grimsby
Gillingham1-1Grimsby
Grimsby2-0Gillingham

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Gillingham 1499 · Grimsby 1464

	Gillingham	Draw	Grimsby
Our model	30%	28%	43%
Market	30%	28%	43%

Estimated total (ours) 2.73 goals · Bet365 line 2.5 · +0.2

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 57%model estimate

Match keys

H2H favours Grimsby: 4-2-0.
Cards-heavy: 9.2 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Gillingham	Grimsby
Goals for / against (FT)	1.6 / 1	1.2 / 1.3
Goals for / against (HT)	0.4 / 0.6	0.7 / 0.7
Half-time result (W/D/L)	10/60/30%	30/30/40%
Corners (HT / FT)	0.9 / 2.9	3.1 / 6.3
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.4 / 0.2	4.8 / 0.2

Odds Bet365

13.10

X3.30

22.15

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+0.25)1.93

2 (-0.25)1.93

Line ⓘ

Over 2.51.98

Under 2.51.88

Diff.: 0.05 · xG: 2.55

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 00:28

	Bet365	Best now
1	3.10 → 3.10	Bet365 3.10
X	3.30 → 3.30	Bet365 3.30
2	2.15 → 2.15	Bet365 2.15

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 9.1%

Time*	1	X	2
00:14 +14’	3.10	3.30	2.15

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Gillingham 0–2–4 Grimsby

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Date	Home	Score	Away
18/04/26 England League 2	Gillingham	1-4 HT 0-1	Grimsby
18/10/25 England League 2	Grimsby	1-0 HT 0-0	Gillingham
28/01/25 England League 2	Grimsby	1-1 HT 0-1	Gillingham
01/10/24 England League 2	Gillingham	0-1 HT 0-1	Grimsby
16/03/24 England League 2	Gillingham	1-1 HT 1-1	Grimsby
02/09/23 England League 2	Grimsby	2-0 HT 2-0	Gillingham

Standings · England League 2

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Salford City	11	7	1	3	17	11	22
2	Barnet	9	6	3	0	22	12	21
3	Crewe	11	5	6	0	15	9	21
4	York	10	4	4	2	18	12	16
5	Walsall	10	3	7	0	13	7	16
6	Gillingham	11	4	4	3	16	13	16
7	Chesterfield	11	4	3	4	17	15	15
8	Cheltenham	11	4	3	4	17	20	15
9	Bristol Rovers	11	5	0	6	15	18	15
10	Accrington Stanley	11	3	5	3	16	15	14
11	Newport County	11	3	5	3	14	13	14
12	Fleetwood Town	11	3	5	3	12	11	14
13	Rochdale	11	4	2	5	13	15	14
14	Shrewsbury	11	4	2	5	10	15	14
15	Grimsby	11	3	4	4	13	13	13
16	Exeter	11	3	4	4	6	6	13
17	Tranmere	11	2	6	3	14	15	12
18	Swindon	11	3	3	5	10	15	12
19	Oldham	10	3	2	5	13	14	11
20	Colchester	10	2	5	3	10	13	11
21	Port Vale	9	3	2	4	5	9	11
22	Northampton	9	2	4	3	6	7	10
23	Rotherham	11	2	4	5	12	18	10
24	Crawley Town	9	1	2	6	9	17	5

Common opponents 5 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Gillingham	Grimsby
Accrington Stanley	1-3 L	2-2 D
Newport County	0-0 D	1-2 L
Bristol Rovers	3-0 W	2-0 W
Northampton	1-1 D	0-2 L
Fleetwood Town	0-0 D	2-2 D
Record vs common	1 W 3 D 1 L	1 W 2 D 2 L

Better against common opponents: Gillingham (3 of 5 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Gillingham

DDDWWWLDWL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
17/10	Accrington Stanley England League 2	1-2	1-3	1	5	L
10/10	Rotherham England League 2	1-1	4-1	2	5	W
03/10	Newport County England League 2	0-0	0-0	3	6	D
26/09	York England League 2	0-1	0-3	2	6	L
19/09	Bristol Rovers England League 2	0-0	3-0	1	3	W
12/09	Tranmere England League 2	0-0	2-0	5	5	W
05/09	Rochdale England League 2	1-0	4-1	6	3	W
01/09	Chesterfield England League 2	0-1	1-1	2	3	D
29/08	Northampton England League 2	1-1	1-1	4	6	D
22/08	Fleetwood Town England League 2	0-0	0-0	–	–	D

Grimsby

DDDDWWLLLL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
17/10	Northampton England League 2	0-1	0-2	3	7	L
10/10	Port Vale England League 2	0-1	0-1	4	2	L
03/10	Shrewsbury England League 2	0-1	1-2	8	7	L
26/09	Newport County England League 2	0-0	1-2	3	4	L
19/09	Crawley Town England League 2	2-0	2-0	9	6	W
12/09	Bristol Rovers England League 2	2-0	2-0	8	6	W
05/09	Cheltenham England League 2	0-2	2-2	7	2	D
01/09	Accrington Stanley England League 2	2-1	2-2	8	5	D
29/08	Fleetwood Town England League 2	1-1	2-2	7	6	D
22/08	Walsall England League 2	0-0	0-0	–	–	D

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Gillingham vs Grimsby?

According to our model, the most likely result is an Grimsby win (43%). Probabilities: Gillingham 30%, draw 28%, Grimsby 43%.

How many goals are expected in Gillingham vs Grimsby?

The model expects 2.73 goals (Gillingham 1.22 · Grimsby 1.51), with a 50% chance of over 2.5 goals.

Will both teams score in Gillingham vs Grimsby?

The model gives a 54% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.