Football · England League 2 · 24/10, 13:30
Prediction: Northampton vs Colchester
Team pages: Northampton · Colchester
Prediction summary
Expected goals
1.92Total
Northampton1.13
Colchester0.79
1X2
Northampton
Draw
Colchester
Markets
Over 1.5 goals 58%
Not both to score 53%
Most likely score
0-0 16%
Recent form · 10 last
Northampton
2-4-4 (W-D-L)
Colchester
2-5-3 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Northampton
4–2
Colchester
(6 last)
- Colchester0-1Northampton
- Northampton3-2Colchester
- Northampton3-0Colchester
- Colchester0-1Northampton
- Colchester1-0Northampton
- Northampton0-4Colchester
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Northampton 1469 · Colchester 1473
| Northampton | Draw | Colchester | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 42% | 34% | 24% |
| Market | 45% | 29% | 27% |
Estimated total (ours)
1.92 goals · Bet365 line 2.25 · -0.3
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 66%model estimate
Match keys
- H2H favours Northampton: 4-0-2.
- Cards-heavy: 7.1 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Northampton | Colchester | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 0.6 / 0.8 | 0.9 / 1.2 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.4 / 0.4 | 0.3 / 0.4 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 30/50/20% | 20/50/30% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 3.4 / 5.6 | 1.7 / 3.6 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 3.6 / 0.2 | 3.6 / 0.1 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Northampton 4–0–2 Colchester
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 25/02/23 England League 2 | Colchester | 0-1 HT 0-1 | Northampton |
| 30/07/22 England League 2 | Northampton | 3-2 HT 1-1 | Colchester |
| 19/02/22 England League 2 | Northampton | 3-0 HT 1-0 | Colchester |
| 14/08/21 England League 2 | Colchester | 0-1 HT 0-1 | Northampton |
| 24/08/19 England League 2 | Colchester | 1-0 HT 0-0 | Northampton |
| 02/02/19 England League 2 | Northampton | 0-4 HT 0-1 | Colchester |
Standings · England League 2
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Salford City | 11 | 7 | 1 | 3 | 17 | 11 | 22 |
| 2 | Barnet | 9 | 6 | 3 | 0 | 22 | 12 | 21 |
| 3 | Crewe | 11 | 5 | 6 | 0 | 15 | 9 | 21 |
| 4 | York | 10 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 18 | 12 | 16 |
| 5 | Walsall | 10 | 3 | 7 | 0 | 13 | 7 | 16 |
| 6 | Gillingham | 11 | 4 | 4 | 3 | 16 | 13 | 16 |
| 7 | Chesterfield | 11 | 4 | 3 | 4 | 17 | 15 | 15 |
| 8 | Cheltenham | 11 | 4 | 3 | 4 | 17 | 20 | 15 |
| 9 | Bristol Rovers | 11 | 5 | 0 | 6 | 15 | 18 | 15 |
| 10 | Accrington Stanley | 11 | 3 | 5 | 3 | 16 | 15 | 14 |
| 11 | Newport County | 11 | 3 | 5 | 3 | 14 | 13 | 14 |
| 12 | Fleetwood Town | 11 | 3 | 5 | 3 | 12 | 11 | 14 |
| 13 | Rochdale | 11 | 4 | 2 | 5 | 13 | 15 | 14 |
| 14 | Shrewsbury | 11 | 4 | 2 | 5 | 10 | 15 | 14 |
| 15 | Grimsby | 11 | 3 | 4 | 4 | 13 | 13 | 13 |
| 16 | Exeter | 11 | 3 | 4 | 4 | 6 | 6 | 13 |
| 17 | Tranmere | 11 | 2 | 6 | 3 | 14 | 15 | 12 |
| 18 | Swindon | 11 | 3 | 3 | 5 | 10 | 15 | 12 |
| 19 | Oldham | 10 | 3 | 2 | 5 | 13 | 14 | 11 |
| 20 | Colchester | 10 | 2 | 5 | 3 | 10 | 13 | 11 |
| 21 | Port Vale | 9 | 3 | 2 | 4 | 5 | 9 | 11 |
| 22 | Northampton | 9 | 2 | 4 | 3 | 6 | 7 | 10 |
| 23 | Rotherham | 11 | 2 | 4 | 5 | 12 | 18 | 10 |
| 24 | Crawley Town | 9 | 1 | 2 | 6 | 9 | 17 | 5 |
Common opponents 4 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Northampton | Colchester |
|---|---|---|
| Shrewsbury | 0-2 L | 2-2 D |
| Newport County | 1-0 W | 0-1 L |
| Crewe | 0-1 L | 1-1 D |
| Swindon | 0-0 D | 1-3 L |
| Record vs common | 1 W 1 D 2 L | 0 W 2 D 2 L |
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Northampton
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20/10 | Tranmere England League 2 |
0-1 | 0-1 | 9 | 2 | L |
| 17/10 | Grimsby England League 2 |
1-0 | 2-0 | 7 | 7 | W |
| 10/10 | York England League 2 |
1-0 | 1-1 | 4 | 3 | D |
| 19/09 | Rotherham England League 2 |
0-0 | 0-1 | 5 | 4 | L |
| 12/09 | Shrewsbury England League 2 |
0-2 | 0-2 | 5 | 2 | L |
| 05/09 | Newport County England League 2 |
0-0 | 1-0 | 2 | 5 | W |
| 01/09 | Crawley Town England League 2 |
1-0 | 1-1 | 4 | 3 | D |
| 29/08 | Gillingham England League 2 |
1-1 | 1-1 | 4 | 6 | D |
| 22/08 | Crewe England League 2 |
0-0 | 0-1 | – | – | L |
| 15/08 | Swindon England League 2 |
0-0 | 0-0 | 10 | 2 | D |
Colchester
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20/10 | Chesterfield England League 2 |
0-1 | 1-1 | 2 | 5 | D |
| 17/10 | Exeter England League 2 |
0-0 | 0-0 | 5 | 4 | D |
| 10/10 | Newport County England League 2 |
0-0 | 0-1 | 4 | 3 | L |
| 26/09 | Shrewsbury England League 2 |
1-1 | 2-2 | 4 | 3 | D |
| 19/09 | Cheltenham England League 2 |
0-0 | 1-1 | 3 | 8 | D |
| 12/09 | Crewe England League 2 |
1-0 | 1-1 | 1 | 1 | D |
| 05/09 | Swindon England League 2 |
1-0 | 1-3 | 6 | 2 | L |
| 01/09 | Bristol Rovers England League 2 |
0-1 | 0-2 | 2 | 4 | L |
| 29/08 | Rochdale England League 2 |
0-0 | 1-0 | 5 | 3 | W |
| 22/08 | Oldham England League 2 |
0-1 | 2-1 | – | – | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Northampton vs Colchester?
According to our model, the most likely result is a Northampton win (43%). Probabilities: Northampton 43%, draw 31%, Colchester 26%.
How many goals are expected in Northampton vs Colchester?
The model expects 1.92 goals (Northampton 1.13 · Colchester 0.79), with a 57% chance of under 2.25 goals.
Will both teams score in Northampton vs Colchester?
The model gives a 53% chance that not both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 0-0.