Football · England League 2 · 24/10, 16:00
Prediction: Rochdale vs Accrington Stanley
Team pages: Rochdale · Accrington Stanley
Prediction summary
Expected goals
2.71Total
Rochdale1.43
Accrington Stanley1.28
1X2
Rochdale
Draw
Accrington Stanley
Markets
Over 2.5 goals 51%
Both teams to score 54%
Most likely score
1-1 13%
Recent form · 10 last
Rochdale
4-2-4 (W-D-L)
Accrington Stanley
3-4-3 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Rochdale
4–1–1
Accrington Stanley
(6 last)
- Accrington Stanley3-3Rochdale
- Rochdale3-1Accrington Stanley
- Accrington Stanley2-1Rochdale
- Accrington Stanley1-2Rochdale
- Rochdale2-1Accrington Stanley
- Accrington Stanley0-1Rochdale
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Rochdale 1490 · Accrington Stanley 1506
| Rochdale | Draw | Accrington Stanley | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 39% | 28% | 32% |
| Market | 40% | 28% | 32% |
Estimated total (ours)
2.71 goals · Bet365 line 2.25 · +0.5
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 57%model estimate
Match keys
- H2H favours Rochdale: 4-1-1.
- Cards-heavy: 6.9 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Rochdale | Accrington Stanley | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1.3 / 1.2 | 1.4 / 1.3 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.5 / 0.6 | 0.7 / 0.9 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 30/30/40% | 20/50/30% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 2.6 / 4.4 | 2.2 / 5.6 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 2.1 / 0.3 | 4.8 / 0.2 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Rochdale 4–1–1 Accrington Stanley
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30/08/22 England EFL Trophy | Accrington Stanley | 3-3 HT 0-0 | Rochdale |
| 17/04/21 England League 1 | Rochdale | 3-1 HT 1-1 | Accrington Stanley |
| 10/10/20 England League 1 | Accrington Stanley | 2-1 HT 0-0 | Rochdale |
| 01/01/20 England League 1 | Accrington Stanley | 1-2 HT 0-1 | Rochdale |
| 12/10/19 England League 1 | Rochdale | 2-1 HT 1-0 | Accrington Stanley |
| 09/04/19 England League 1 | Accrington Stanley | 0-1 HT 0-0 | Rochdale |
Standings · England League 2
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Salford City | 11 | 7 | 1 | 3 | 17 | 11 | 22 |
| 2 | Barnet | 9 | 6 | 3 | 0 | 22 | 12 | 21 |
| 3 | Crewe | 11 | 5 | 6 | 0 | 15 | 9 | 21 |
| 4 | York | 10 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 18 | 12 | 16 |
| 5 | Walsall | 10 | 3 | 7 | 0 | 13 | 7 | 16 |
| 6 | Gillingham | 11 | 4 | 4 | 3 | 16 | 13 | 16 |
| 7 | Chesterfield | 11 | 4 | 3 | 4 | 17 | 15 | 15 |
| 8 | Cheltenham | 11 | 4 | 3 | 4 | 17 | 20 | 15 |
| 9 | Bristol Rovers | 11 | 5 | 0 | 6 | 15 | 18 | 15 |
| 10 | Accrington Stanley | 11 | 3 | 5 | 3 | 16 | 15 | 14 |
| 11 | Newport County | 11 | 3 | 5 | 3 | 14 | 13 | 14 |
| 12 | Fleetwood Town | 11 | 3 | 5 | 3 | 12 | 11 | 14 |
| 13 | Rochdale | 11 | 4 | 2 | 5 | 13 | 15 | 14 |
| 14 | Shrewsbury | 11 | 4 | 2 | 5 | 10 | 15 | 14 |
| 15 | Grimsby | 11 | 3 | 4 | 4 | 13 | 13 | 13 |
| 16 | Exeter | 11 | 3 | 4 | 4 | 6 | 6 | 13 |
| 17 | Tranmere | 11 | 2 | 6 | 3 | 14 | 15 | 12 |
| 18 | Swindon | 11 | 3 | 3 | 5 | 10 | 15 | 12 |
| 19 | Oldham | 10 | 3 | 2 | 5 | 13 | 14 | 11 |
| 20 | Colchester | 10 | 2 | 5 | 3 | 10 | 13 | 11 |
| 21 | Port Vale | 9 | 3 | 2 | 4 | 5 | 9 | 11 |
| 22 | Northampton | 9 | 2 | 4 | 3 | 6 | 7 | 10 |
| 23 | Rotherham | 11 | 2 | 4 | 5 | 12 | 18 | 10 |
| 24 | Crawley Town | 9 | 1 | 2 | 6 | 9 | 17 | 5 |
Common opponents 5 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Rochdale | Accrington Stanley |
|---|---|---|
| Swindon | 1-0 W | 1-1 D |
| Oldham | 2-0 W | 0-0 D |
| Walsall | 0-0 D | 2-3 L |
| Gillingham | 1-4 L | 3-1 W |
| Crawley Town | 1-2 L | 3-2 W |
| Record vs common | 2 W 1 D 2 L | 2 W 2 D 1 L |
Better against common opponents: Rochdale (3 of 5 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Rochdale
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17/10 | Crewe England League 2 |
0-2 | 2-3 | 7 | 1 | L |
| 10/10 | Tranmere England League 2 |
0-1 | 1-1 | 3 | 1 | D |
| 03/10 | Swindon England League 2 |
0-0 | 1-0 | 11 | 2 | W |
| 26/09 | Fleetwood Town England League 2 |
2-1 | 2-1 | 5 | 3 | W |
| 19/09 | Oldham England League 2 |
1-0 | 2-0 | 0 | 0 | W |
| 12/09 | Walsall England League 2 |
0-0 | 0-0 | 4 | 4 | D |
| 05/09 | Gillingham England League 2 |
0-1 | 1-4 | 6 | 3 | L |
| 01/09 | Shrewsbury England League 2 |
2-0 | 3-0 | 1 | 5 | W |
| 29/08 | Colchester England League 2 |
0-0 | 0-1 | 3 | 3 | L |
| 22/08 | Crawley Town England League 2 |
0-1 | 1-2 | – | – | L |
Accrington Stanley
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17/10 | Gillingham England League 2 |
2-1 | 3-1 | 11 | 5 | W |
| 10/10 | Oldham England League 2 |
0-0 | 0-0 | 9 | 5 | D |
| 03/10 | Cheltenham England League 2 |
0-0 | 2-0 | 8 | 6 | W |
| 26/09 | Swindon England League 2 |
1-1 | 1-1 | 7 | 2 | D |
| 19/09 | Newport County England League 2 |
0-0 | 0-0 | 4 | 4 | D |
| 12/09 | Barnet England League 2 |
1-0 | 1-2 | 4 | 6 | L |
| 05/09 | Crawley Town England League 2 |
1-1 | 3-2 | 1 | 6 | W |
| 01/09 | Grimsby England League 2 |
1-2 | 2-2 | 2 | 5 | D |
| 29/08 | Walsall England League 2 |
1-2 | 2-3 | 4 | 6 | L |
| 22/08 | Exeter England League 2 |
0-2 | 0-2 | – | – | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Rochdale vs Accrington Stanley?
According to our model, the most likely result is a Rochdale win (40%). Probabilities: Rochdale 40%, draw 28%, Accrington Stanley 32%.
How many goals are expected in Rochdale vs Accrington Stanley?
The model expects 2.71 goals (Rochdale 1.43 · Accrington Stanley 1.28), with a 56% chance of over 2.25 goals.
Will both teams score in Rochdale vs Accrington Stanley?
The model gives a 54% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.