Football · England League 2 · 31/10, 16:00

Prediction: Accrington Stanley vs Northampton

Team pages: Accrington Stanley · Northampton

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.21Total

Accrington Stanley1.2

Northampton1

1X2

40% 30% 30%

Accrington Stanley Draw Northampton

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 62% Both teams to score 50%

Most likely score

1-1 15%

Recent form · 10 last

Accrington Stanley 4-5-1 (W-D-L)

DWLDDWDWDW

Northampton 3-3-4 (W-D-L)

LDDWLLDWLW

Head-to-head

Accrington Stanley 2–2–2 Northampton (6 last)

Accrington Stanley0-0Northampton
Northampton0-1Accrington Stanley
Northampton1-0Accrington Stanley
Accrington Stanley1-1Northampton
Accrington Stanley1-5Northampton
Northampton4-5Accrington Stanley

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Accrington Stanley 1537 · Northampton 1481

	Accrington Stanley	Draw	Northampton
Our model	39%	32%	29%
Market	40%	29%	30%

Estimated total (ours) 2.21 goals · Bet365 line 2.25

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 53%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Accrington Stanley (rating 1537 vs 1481).
High corners: 10.7 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 8.4 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Accrington Stanley	Northampton
Goals for / against (FT)	1.8 / 0.9	0.8 / 0.8
Goals for / against (HT)	0.9 / 0.5	0.5 / 0.4
Half-time result (W/D/L)	30/60/10%	40/40/20%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.4 / 5.5	3 / 5.2
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.7 / 0.2	3.7 / 0.2

Odds Bet365

12.25

X3.10

23.00

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.25)2.02

2 (+0.25)1.82

Line ⓘ

Over 2.251.95

Under 2.251.90

Diff.: 0.1 · xG: 2.15

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 00:42

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.25 → 2.25	Bet365 2.25
X	3.10 → 3.10	Pinn 3.21
2	3.00 → 3.00	Pinn 3.37 ★

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 10% Pinnacle margin 6.3%

Time*	1	X	2
00:23 +19’	2.25	3.10	3.00

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
18:45 +357’	2.17	3.22	3.42
18:28 +20’	2.20▲	3.21▼	3.37▼

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Accrington Stanley 2–2–2 Northampton

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Date	Home	Score	Away
06/02/21 England League 1	Accrington Stanley	0-0 HT 0-0	Northampton
14/11/20 England League 1	Northampton	0-1 HT 0-1	Accrington Stanley
28/12/15 England League 2	Northampton	1-0 HT 0-0	Accrington Stanley
29/08/15 England League 2	Accrington Stanley	1-1 HT 0-1	Northampton
31/01/15 England League 2	Accrington Stanley	1-5 HT 1-2	Northampton
20/09/14 England League 2	Northampton	4-5 HT 1-3	Accrington Stanley

Standings · England League 2

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Salford City	12	8	1	3	19	12	25
2	Barnet	11	6	4	1	24	16	22
3	Cheltenham	13	6	3	4	22	22	21
4	Crewe	13	5	6	2	16	16	21
5	York	12	5	5	2	21	13	20
6	Walsall	11	4	7	0	16	7	19
7	Chesterfield	13	5	4	4	23	17	19
8	Exeter	13	5	4	4	10	7	19
9	Accrington Stanley	13	4	6	3	22	16	18
10	Shrewsbury	13	5	3	5	16	20	18
11	Grimsby	13	4	5	4	19	16	17
12	Gillingham	13	4	5	4	18	18	17
13	Tranmere	13	3	7	3	16	16	16
14	Swindon	13	4	4	5	13	16	16
15	Bristol Rovers	13	5	1	7	16	20	16
16	Newport County	13	3	6	4	16	16	15
17	Rochdale	13	4	3	6	15	22	15
18	Fleetwood Town	13	3	5	5	15	17	14
19	Northampton	11	3	4	4	8	8	13
20	Oldham	12	3	3	6	14	18	12
21	Colchester	12	2	6	4	11	16	12
22	Rotherham	13	2	6	5	17	23	12
23	Port Vale	11	3	3	5	6	12	12
24	Crawley Town	11	1	3	7	12	21	6

Common opponents 5 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Accrington Stanley	Northampton
York	1-1 D	1-1 D
Gillingham	3-1 W	1-1 D
Newport County	0-0 D	1-0 W
Crawley Town	3-2 W	1-1 D
Grimsby	2-2 D	2-0 W
Record vs common	2 W 3 D 0 L	2 W 3 D 0 L

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Accrington Stanley

DWLDDWDWDW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
24/10	Rochdale England League 2	3-0	5-0	3	5	W
20/10	York England League 2	0-0	1-1	6	5	D
17/10	Gillingham England League 2	2-1	3-1	11	5	W
10/10	Oldham England League 2	0-0	0-0	9	5	D
03/10	Cheltenham England League 2	0-0	2-0	8	6	W
26/09	Swindon England League 2	1-1	1-1	7	2	D
19/09	Newport County England League 2	0-0	0-0	4	4	D
12/09	Barnet England League 2	1-0	1-2	4	6	L
05/09	Crawley Town England League 2	1-1	3-2	1	6	W
01/09	Grimsby England League 2	1-2	2-2	2	5	D

Northampton

LDDWLLDWLW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
24/10	Colchester England League 2	1-0	2-0	7	3	W
20/10	Tranmere England League 2	0-1	0-1	9	2	L
17/10	Grimsby England League 2	1-0	2-0	7	7	W
10/10	York England League 2	1-0	1-1	4	3	D
19/09	Rotherham England League 2	0-0	0-1	5	4	L
12/09	Shrewsbury England League 2	0-2	0-2	5	2	L
05/09	Newport County England League 2	0-0	1-0	2	5	W
01/09	Crawley Town England League 2	1-0	1-1	4	3	D
29/08	Gillingham England League 2	1-1	1-1	4	6	D
22/08	Crewe England League 2	0-0	0-1	–	–	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Accrington Stanley vs Northampton?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Accrington Stanley win (40%). Probabilities: Accrington Stanley 40%, draw 30%, Northampton 30%.

How many goals are expected in Accrington Stanley vs Northampton?

The model expects 2.21 goals (Accrington Stanley 1.2 · Northampton 1), with a 52% chance of under 2.25 goals.

Will both teams score in Accrington Stanley vs Northampton?

The model gives a 50% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.