Football · England League 2 · 31/10, 13:30

Prediction: Grimsby vs York

Team pages: Grimsby · York

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.67Total

Grimsby1.42

York1.26

1X2

40% 27% 33%

Grimsby Draw York

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 50% Both teams to score 54%

Most likely score

1-1 14%

Recent form · 10 last

Grimsby 3-3-4 (W-D-L)

DDWWLLLLDW

York 4-4-2 (W-D-L)

WLDWLWDDDW

Head-to-head

Grimsby 0–1 York (1 last)

York2-1Grimsby

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Grimsby 1482 · York 1511

	Grimsby	Draw	York
Our model	40%	28%	32%
Market	41%	26%	33%

Estimated total (ours) 2.67 goals · Bet365 line 2.75

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 51%model estimate

Match keys

High corners: 11.7 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 8.3 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Grimsby	York
Goals for / against (FT)	1.6 / 1.4	1.7 / 1
Goals for / against (HT)	0.7 / 0.8	0.7 / 0.3
Half-time result (W/D/L)	30/20/50%	40/50/10%
Corners (HT / FT)	3.5 / 6.6	2.3 / 5.1
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	5 / 0.2	3.3 / 0.3

Odds Bet365

12.25

X3.50

22.75

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.25)2.02

2 (+0.25)1.82

Line ⓘ

Over 2.751.82

Under 2.752.02

Diff.: 0.1 · xG: 2.85

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 00:36

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.25 → 2.25	Bet365 2.25
X	3.50 → 3.50	Bet365 3.50
2	2.75 → 2.75	Bet365 2.75

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 9.4%

Time*	1	X	2
00:30 +6’	2.25	3.50	2.75

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · Grimsby 0–0–1 York

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Date	Home	Score	Away
20/07/24 Club Friendly List	York	2-1 HT 1-1	Grimsby

Standings · England League 2

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Salford City	12	8	1	3	19	12	25
2	Barnet	11	6	4	1	24	16	22
3	Cheltenham	13	6	3	4	22	22	21
4	Crewe	13	5	6	2	16	16	21
5	York	12	5	5	2	21	13	20
6	Walsall	11	4	7	0	16	7	19
7	Chesterfield	13	5	4	4	23	17	19
8	Exeter	13	5	4	4	10	7	19
9	Accrington Stanley	13	4	6	3	22	16	18
10	Shrewsbury	13	5	3	5	16	20	18
11	Grimsby	13	4	5	4	19	16	17
12	Gillingham	13	4	5	4	18	18	17
13	Tranmere	13	3	7	3	16	16	16
14	Swindon	13	4	4	5	13	16	16
15	Bristol Rovers	13	5	1	7	16	20	16
16	Newport County	13	3	6	4	16	16	15
17	Rochdale	13	4	3	6	15	22	15
18	Fleetwood Town	13	3	5	5	15	17	14
19	Northampton	11	3	4	4	8	8	13
20	Oldham	12	3	3	6	14	18	12
21	Colchester	12	2	6	4	11	16	12
22	Rotherham	13	2	6	5	17	23	12
23	Port Vale	11	3	3	5	6	12	12
24	Crawley Town	11	1	3	7	12	21	6

Common opponents 6 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Grimsby	York
Gillingham	4-1 W	3-0 W
Northampton	0-2 L	1-1 D
Port Vale	0-1 L	2-0 W
Newport County	1-2 L	1-1 D
Cheltenham	2-2 D	2-3 L
Accrington Stanley	2-2 D	1-1 D
Record vs common	1 W 2 D 3 L	2 W 3 D 1 L

Better against common opponents: York (3 of 6 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Grimsby

DDWWLLLLDW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
24/10	Gillingham England League 2	1-1	4-1	6	7	W
20/10	Rochdale England League 2	0-1	2-2	10	6	D
17/10	Northampton England League 2	0-1	0-2	3	7	L
10/10	Port Vale England League 2	0-1	0-1	4	2	L
03/10	Shrewsbury England League 2	0-1	1-2	8	7	L
26/09	Newport County England League 2	0-0	1-2	3	4	L
19/09	Crawley Town England League 2	2-0	2-0	9	6	W
12/09	Bristol Rovers England League 2	2-0	2-0	8	6	W
05/09	Cheltenham England League 2	0-2	2-2	7	2	D
01/09	Accrington Stanley England League 2	2-1	2-2	8	5	D

York

WLDWLWDDDW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
24/10	Port Vale England League 2	0-0	2-0	2	1	W
20/10	Accrington Stanley England League 2	0-0	1-1	7	5	D
17/10	Newport County England League 2	1-0	1-1	0	6	D
10/10	Northampton England League 2	0-1	1-1	8	3	D
26/09	Gillingham England League 2	1-0	3-0	4	6	W
19/09	Chesterfield England League 2	0-0	0-2	4	3	L
12/09	Swindon England League 2	2-0	4-0	6	3	W
05/09	Crewe England League 2	1-1	1-1	9	3	D
01/09	Cheltenham England League 2	1-1	2-3	4	1	L
29/08	Exeter England League 2	1-0	2-1	7	5	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Grimsby vs York?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Grimsby win (40%). Probabilities: Grimsby 40%, draw 27%, York 33%.

How many goals are expected in Grimsby vs York?

The model expects 2.67 goals (Grimsby 1.42 · York 1.26), with a 52% chance of under 2.75 goals.

Will both teams score in Grimsby vs York?

The model gives a 54% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.