Football · England League 2 · 30/10, 20:45
Prediction: Newport County vs Chesterfield
Team pages: Newport County · Chesterfield
Prediction summary
Expected goals
2.69Total
Newport County1.15
Chesterfield1.54
1X2
Newport County
Draw
Chesterfield
Markets
Over 2.5 goals 50%
Both teams to score 54%
Most likely score
1-1 13%
Recent form · 10 last
Newport County
2-5-3 (W-D-L)
Chesterfield
4-4-2 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Newport County
2–4
Chesterfield
(6 last)
- Newport County2-1Chesterfield
- Chesterfield4-1Newport County
- Chesterfield2-1Newport County
- Newport County0-3Chesterfield
- Chesterfield1-0Newport County
- Newport County4-1Chesterfield
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Newport County 1511 · Chesterfield 1528
| Newport County | Draw | Chesterfield | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 27% | 28% | 45% |
| Market | 28% | 26% | 46% |
Estimated total (ours)
2.69 goals · Bet365 line 2.75
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 50%model estimate
Match keys
- H2H favours Chesterfield: 4-0-2.
- High corners: 11.2 combined avg.
- Cards-heavy: 9 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Newport County | Chesterfield | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 0.8 / 0.9 | 2.1 / 1.4 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.2 / 0.4 | 1.1 / 0.5 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 10/60/30% | 60/10/30% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 1.6 / 4.1 | 3.2 / 7.1 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 4.5 / 0.1 | 4.5 / 0 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Newport County 2–0–4 Chesterfield
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 24/01/26 England League 2 | Newport County | 2-1 HT 0-0 | Chesterfield |
| 27/09/25 England League 2 | Chesterfield | 4-1 HT 2-0 | Newport County |
| 08/03/25 England League 2 | Chesterfield | 2-1 HT 2-1 | Newport County |
| 18/10/24 England League 2 | Newport County | 0-3 HT 0-1 | Chesterfield |
| 01/05/18 England League 2 | Chesterfield | 1-0 HT 0-0 | Newport County |
| 26/08/17 England League 2 | Newport County | 4-1 HT 0-1 | Chesterfield |
Standings · England League 2
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Salford City | 12 | 8 | 1 | 3 | 19 | 12 | 25 |
| 2 | Barnet | 11 | 6 | 4 | 1 | 24 | 16 | 22 |
| 3 | Cheltenham | 13 | 6 | 3 | 4 | 22 | 22 | 21 |
| 4 | Crewe | 13 | 5 | 6 | 2 | 16 | 16 | 21 |
| 5 | York | 12 | 5 | 5 | 2 | 21 | 13 | 20 |
| 6 | Walsall | 11 | 4 | 7 | 0 | 16 | 7 | 19 |
| 7 | Chesterfield | 13 | 5 | 4 | 4 | 23 | 17 | 19 |
| 8 | Exeter | 13 | 5 | 4 | 4 | 10 | 7 | 19 |
| 9 | Accrington Stanley | 13 | 4 | 6 | 3 | 22 | 16 | 18 |
| 10 | Shrewsbury | 13 | 5 | 3 | 5 | 16 | 20 | 18 |
| 11 | Grimsby | 13 | 4 | 5 | 4 | 19 | 16 | 17 |
| 12 | Gillingham | 13 | 4 | 5 | 4 | 18 | 18 | 17 |
| 13 | Tranmere | 13 | 3 | 7 | 3 | 16 | 16 | 16 |
| 14 | Swindon | 13 | 4 | 4 | 5 | 13 | 16 | 16 |
| 15 | Bristol Rovers | 13 | 5 | 1 | 7 | 16 | 20 | 16 |
| 16 | Newport County | 13 | 3 | 6 | 4 | 16 | 16 | 15 |
| 17 | Rochdale | 13 | 4 | 3 | 6 | 15 | 22 | 15 |
| 18 | Fleetwood Town | 13 | 3 | 5 | 5 | 15 | 17 | 14 |
| 19 | Northampton | 11 | 3 | 4 | 4 | 8 | 8 | 13 |
| 20 | Oldham | 12 | 3 | 3 | 6 | 14 | 18 | 12 |
| 21 | Colchester | 12 | 2 | 6 | 4 | 11 | 16 | 12 |
| 22 | Rotherham | 13 | 2 | 6 | 5 | 17 | 23 | 12 |
| 23 | Port Vale | 11 | 3 | 3 | 5 | 6 | 12 | 12 |
| 24 | Crawley Town | 11 | 1 | 3 | 7 | 12 | 21 | 6 |
Common opponents 4 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Newport County | Chesterfield |
|---|---|---|
| Cheltenham | 0-1 L | 1-2 L |
| York | 1-1 D | 2-0 W |
| Colchester | 1-0 W | 1-1 D |
| Gillingham | 0-0 D | 1-1 D |
| Record vs common | 1 W 2 D 1 L | 1 W 2 D 1 L |
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Newport County
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 24/10 | Cheltenham England League 2 |
0-1 | 0-1 | 5 | 5 | L |
| 20/10 | Rotherham England League 2 |
1-2 | 2-2 | 2 | 4 | D |
| 17/10 | York England League 2 |
0-1 | 1-1 | 6 | 6 | D |
| 10/10 | Colchester England League 2 |
0-0 | 1-0 | 5 | 3 | W |
| 03/10 | Gillingham England League 2 |
0-0 | 0-0 | 2 | 6 | D |
| 26/09 | Grimsby England League 2 |
0-0 | 2-1 | 7 | 4 | W |
| 19/09 | Accrington Stanley England League 2 |
0-0 | 0-0 | 5 | 4 | D |
| 12/09 | Fleetwood Town England League 2 |
1-0 | 1-1 | 9 | 5 | D |
| 05/09 | Northampton England League 2 |
0-0 | 0-1 | 0 | 5 | L |
| 01/09 | Salford City England League 2 |
0-0 | 1-2 | 0 | 4 | L |
Chesterfield
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 24/10 | Crewe England League 2 |
5-0 | 5-1 | 2 | 0 | W |
| 20/10 | Colchester England League 2 |
1-0 | 1-1 | 7 | 5 | D |
| 17/10 | Port Vale England League 2 |
0-1 | 0-1 | 9 | 5 | L |
| 10/10 | Crawley Town England League 2 |
1-0 | 2-2 | 7 | 7 | D |
| 03/10 | Tranmere England League 2 |
1-0 | 4-2 | 12 | 6 | W |
| 26/09 | Cheltenham England League 2 |
0-2 | 1-2 | 11 | 4 | L |
| 19/09 | York England League 2 |
0-0 | 2-0 | 7 | 3 | W |
| 12/09 | Oldham England League 2 |
1-0 | 2-1 | 4 | 5 | W |
| 05/09 | Barnet England League 2 |
1-2 | 3-3 | 4 | 7 | D |
| 01/09 | Gillingham England League 2 |
1-0 | 1-1 | 8 | 3 | D |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Newport County vs Chesterfield?
According to our model, the most likely result is an Chesterfield win (46%). Probabilities: Newport County 27%, draw 27%, Chesterfield 46%.
How many goals are expected in Newport County vs Chesterfield?
The model expects 2.69 goals (Newport County 1.15 · Chesterfield 1.54), with a 54% chance of under 2.75 goals.
Will both teams score in Newport County vs Chesterfield?
The model gives a 54% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.