Football · England League 2 · 14/11, 16:00
Prediction: Colchester vs Gillingham
Team pages: Colchester · Gillingham
Prediction summary
Expected goals
2.49Total
Colchester1.4
Gillingham1.09
1X2
Colchester
Draw
Gillingham
Markets
Under 2.5 goals 52%
Both teams to score 52%
Most likely score
1-1 14%
Recent form · 10 last
Colchester
0-5-5 (W-D-L)
Gillingham
5-2-3 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Colchester
2–3–1
Gillingham
(6 last)
- Gillingham1-1Colchester
- Colchester0-0Gillingham
- Colchester2-1Gillingham
- Gillingham1-1Colchester
- Colchester2-0Gillingham
- Colchester0-1Gillingham
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Colchester 1444 · Gillingham 1503
| Colchester | Draw | Gillingham | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 43% | 29% | 28% |
| Market | 44% | 28% | 29% |
Estimated total (ours)
2.49 goals · Bet365 line 2.5
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 55%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Gillingham (rating 1444 vs 1503).
- H2H favours Colchester: 2-3-1.
- Cards-heavy: 8.2 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Colchester | Gillingham | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 0.7 / 1.6 | 1.8 / 1.4 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.4 / 0.5 | 0.6 / 0.5 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 20/50/30% | 30/50/20% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 2 / 3.9 | 1.7 / 3.5 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 3.6 / 0.1 | 4.6 / 0.2 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Colchester 2–3–1 Gillingham
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 29/12/25 England League 2 | Gillingham | 1-1 HT 0-0 | Colchester |
| 06/12/25 England League 2 | Colchester | 0-0 HT 0-0 | Gillingham |
| 07/10/25 England EFL Trophy | Colchester | 2-1 HT 0-1 | Gillingham |
| 01/04/25 England League 2 | Gillingham | 1-1 HT 0-1 | Colchester |
| 26/12/24 England League 2 | Colchester | 2-0 HT 1-0 | Gillingham |
| 01/01/24 England League 2 | Colchester | 0-1 HT 0-0 | Gillingham |
Standings · England League 2
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Salford City | 14 | 10 | 1 | 3 | 25 | 15 | 31 |
| 2 | Barnet | 13 | 7 | 5 | 1 | 28 | 18 | 26 |
| 3 | Walsall | 13 | 5 | 7 | 1 | 21 | 12 | 22 |
| 4 | Crewe | 14 | 5 | 7 | 2 | 17 | 17 | 22 |
| 5 | Cheltenham | 14 | 6 | 3 | 5 | 23 | 25 | 21 |
| 6 | Grimsby | 14 | 5 | 5 | 4 | 24 | 18 | 20 |
| 7 | York | 14 | 5 | 5 | 4 | 24 | 21 | 20 |
| 8 | Gillingham | 14 | 5 | 5 | 4 | 20 | 19 | 20 |
| 9 | Accrington Stanley | 14 | 4 | 7 | 3 | 23 | 17 | 19 |
| 10 | Chesterfield | 14 | 5 | 4 | 5 | 24 | 21 | 19 |
| 11 | Tranmere | 14 | 4 | 7 | 3 | 19 | 17 | 19 |
| 12 | Exeter | 14 | 5 | 4 | 5 | 11 | 9 | 19 |
| 13 | Swindon | 14 | 5 | 4 | 5 | 15 | 17 | 19 |
| 14 | Newport County | 14 | 4 | 6 | 4 | 20 | 17 | 18 |
| 15 | Shrewsbury | 14 | 5 | 3 | 6 | 17 | 22 | 18 |
| 16 | Fleetwood Town | 14 | 4 | 5 | 5 | 18 | 18 | 17 |
| 17 | Bristol Rovers | 14 | 5 | 1 | 8 | 17 | 23 | 16 |
| 18 | Oldham | 14 | 4 | 3 | 7 | 15 | 19 | 15 |
| 19 | Port Vale | 12 | 4 | 3 | 5 | 10 | 14 | 15 |
| 20 | Rochdale | 14 | 4 | 3 | 7 | 17 | 26 | 15 |
| 21 | Northampton | 13 | 3 | 5 | 5 | 9 | 10 | 14 |
| 22 | Rotherham | 14 | 2 | 6 | 6 | 18 | 25 | 12 |
| 23 | Colchester | 13 | 2 | 6 | 5 | 12 | 19 | 12 |
| 24 | Crawley Town | 12 | 2 | 3 | 7 | 13 | 21 | 9 |
Common opponents 3 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Colchester | Gillingham |
|---|---|---|
| Newport County | 0-1 L | 0-0 D |
| Shrewsbury | 2-2 D | 2-1 W |
| Bristol Rovers | 0-2 L | 3-0 W |
| Record vs common | 0 W 1 D 2 L | 2 W 1 D 0 L |
Better against common opponents: Gillingham (3 of 3 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Colchester
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 31/10 | Walsall England League 2 |
1-1 | 1-3 | 10 | 4 | L |
| 24/10 | Northampton England League 2 |
0-1 | 0-2 | 2 | 3 | L |
| 20/10 | Chesterfield England League 2 |
0-1 | 1-1 | 2 | 5 | D |
| 17/10 | Exeter England League 2 |
0-0 | 0-0 | 5 | 4 | D |
| 10/10 | Newport County England League 2 |
0-0 | 0-1 | 4 | 3 | L |
| 26/09 | Shrewsbury England League 2 |
1-1 | 2-2 | 4 | 3 | D |
| 19/09 | Cheltenham England League 2 |
0-0 | 1-1 | 3 | 8 | D |
| 12/09 | Crewe England League 2 |
1-0 | 1-1 | 1 | 1 | D |
| 05/09 | Swindon England League 2 |
1-0 | 1-3 | 6 | 2 | L |
| 01/09 | Bristol Rovers England League 2 |
0-1 | 0-2 | 2 | 4 | L |
Gillingham
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 31/10 | Shrewsbury England League 2 |
1-0 | 2-1 | 2 | 5 | W |
| 24/10 | Grimsby England League 2 |
1-1 | 1-4 | 4 | 7 | L |
| 20/10 | Port Vale England League 2 |
1-0 | 1-1 | 9 | 3 | D |
| 17/10 | Accrington Stanley England League 2 |
1-2 | 1-3 | 1 | 5 | L |
| 10/10 | Rotherham England League 2 |
1-1 | 4-1 | 2 | 5 | W |
| 03/10 | Newport County England League 2 |
0-0 | 0-0 | 3 | 6 | D |
| 26/09 | York England League 2 |
0-1 | 0-3 | 2 | 6 | L |
| 19/09 | Bristol Rovers England League 2 |
0-0 | 3-0 | 1 | 3 | W |
| 12/09 | Tranmere England League 2 |
0-0 | 2-0 | 5 | 5 | W |
| 05/09 | Rochdale England League 2 |
1-0 | 4-1 | 6 | 3 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Colchester vs Gillingham?
According to our model, the most likely result is a Colchester win (43%). Probabilities: Colchester 43%, draw 28%, Gillingham 28%.
How many goals are expected in Colchester vs Gillingham?
The model expects 2.49 goals (Colchester 1.4 · Gillingham 1.09), with a 52% chance of under 2.5 goals.
Will both teams score in Colchester vs Gillingham?
The model gives a 52% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.