Football · England League 2 · 21/11, 16:00

Prediction: Tranmere vs Colchester

Team pages: Tranmere · Colchester

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.12Total

Tranmere1.2

Colchester0.92

1X2

42% 30% 28%

Tranmere Draw Colchester

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 56% Not both to score 51%

Most likely score

1-1 15%

Recent form · 10 last

Tranmere 2-4-4 (W-D-L)

LDDLDLWDWL

Colchester 1-5-4 (W-D-L)

LDDDLDDLLW

Head-to-head

Tranmere 0–2–4 Colchester (6 last)

Tranmere0-1Colchester
Colchester1-1Tranmere
Tranmere1-3Colchester
Colchester3-0Tranmere
Tranmere1-1Colchester
Colchester2-0Tranmere

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Tranmere 1465 · Colchester 1477

	Tranmere	Draw	Colchester
Our model	41%	32%	27%
Market	43%	28%	29%

Estimated total (ours) 2.12 goals · Bet365 line 2.5 · -0.4

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 64%model estimate

Match keys

H2H favours Colchester: 4-2-0.
Cards-heavy: 6.9 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Tranmere	Colchester
Goals for / against (FT)	1 / 1.3	0.9 / 1.4
Goals for / against (HT)	0.6 / 0.2	0.4 / 0.4
Half-time result (W/D/L)	40/50/10%	20/60/20%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.4 / 4.9	2 / 3.9
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.5 / 0.1	3.4 / 0.1

Odds Bet365

12.10

X3.30

23.10

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.25)1.88

2 (+0.25)1.98

Line ⓘ

Over 2.51.90

Under 2.51.95

Diff.: 0.2 · xG: 2.3

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 00:26

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.10 → 2.10	Pinn 2.16
X	3.30 → 3.30	Pinn 3.42
2	3.10 → 3.10	Pinn 3.30 ★

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 10.2% Pinnacle margin 5.8%

Time*	1	X	2
00:22 +4’	2.10	3.30	3.10

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
00:25 +1’	2.16	3.42	3.30

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Tranmere 0–2–4 Colchester

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Date	Home	Score	Away
06/04/26 England League 2	Tranmere	0-1 HT 0-0	Colchester
02/08/25 England League 2	Colchester	1-1 HT 0-1	Tranmere
01/02/25 England League 2	Tranmere	1-3 HT 0-2	Colchester
21/09/24 England League 2	Colchester	3-0 HT 2-0	Tranmere
01/04/24 England League 2	Tranmere	1-1 HT 1-1	Colchester
09/09/23 England League 2	Colchester	2-0 HT 1-0	Tranmere

Standings · England League 2

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Salford City	15	10	2	3	26	16	32
2	Barnet	13	7	5	1	28	18	26
3	Grimsby	15	6	5	4	28	19	23
4	York	15	6	5	4	25	21	23
5	Crewe	15	5	8	2	19	19	23
6	Walsall	13	5	7	1	21	12	22
7	Chesterfield	15	6	4	5	26	21	22
8	Exeter	15	6	4	5	12	9	22
9	Cheltenham	15	6	3	6	23	26	21
10	Shrewsbury	15	6	3	6	19	23	21
11	Fleetwood Town	15	5	5	5	19	18	20
12	Gillingham	15	5	5	5	20	21	20
13	Accrington Stanley	15	4	7	4	25	21	19
14	Newport County	15	4	7	4	22	19	19
15	Tranmere	15	4	7	4	19	18	19
16	Swindon	15	5	4	6	16	21	19
17	Port Vale	13	5	3	5	14	16	18
18	Bristol Rovers	15	5	1	9	17	25	16
19	Northampton	14	3	6	5	10	11	15
20	Oldham	15	4	3	8	16	21	15
21	Colchester	14	3	6	5	14	19	15
22	Rochdale	15	4	3	8	17	27	15
23	Rotherham	14	2	6	6	18	25	12
24	Crawley Town	12	2	3	7	13	21	9

Common opponents 6 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Tranmere	Colchester
Cheltenham	3-1 W	1-1 D
Northampton	1-0 W	0-2 L
Chesterfield	2-4 L	1-1 D
Walsall	1-1 D	1-3 L
Exeter	0-0 D	0-0 D
Gillingham	0-2 L	2-0 W
Record vs common	2 W 2 D 2 L	1 W 3 D 2 L

Better against common opponents: Tranmere (3 of 6 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Tranmere

LDDLDLWDWL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
14/11	Fleetwood Town England League 2	0-0	0-1	6	2	L
31/10	Cheltenham England League 2	3-1	3-1	1	4	W
24/10	Crawley Town England League 2	0-0	1-1	15	3	D
20/10	Northampton England League 2	1-0	1-0	6	2	W
17/10	Barnet England League 2	1-0	1-2	2	5	L
10/10	Rochdale England League 2	1-0	1-1	5	1	D
03/10	Chesterfield England League 2	0-1	2-4	1	6	L
26/09	Walsall England League 2	0-0	1-1	6	3	D
19/09	Exeter England League 2	0-0	0-0	2	5	D
12/09	Gillingham England League 2	0-0	0-2	5	5	L

Colchester

LDDDLDDLLW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
14/11	Gillingham England League 2	0-0	2-0	2	2	W
31/10	Walsall England League 2	1-1	1-3	10	4	L
24/10	Northampton England League 2	0-1	0-2	2	3	L
20/10	Chesterfield England League 2	0-1	1-1	2	5	D
17/10	Exeter England League 2	0-0	0-0	5	4	D
10/10	Newport County England League 2	0-0	0-1	4	3	L
26/09	Shrewsbury England League 2	1-1	2-2	4	3	D
19/09	Cheltenham England League 2	0-0	1-1	3	8	D
12/09	Crewe England League 2	1-0	1-1	1	1	D
05/09	Swindon England League 2	1-0	1-3	6	2	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Tranmere vs Colchester?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Tranmere win (42%). Probabilities: Tranmere 42%, draw 30%, Colchester 28%.

How many goals are expected in Tranmere vs Colchester?

The model expects 2.12 goals (Tranmere 1.2 · Colchester 0.92), with a 56% chance of under 2.5 goals.

Will both teams score in Tranmere vs Colchester?

The model gives a 51% chance that not both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.