Football · England League 2 · 21/11, 16:00

Prediction: Northampton vs Rochdale

Team pages: Northampton · Rochdale

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.33Total

Northampton1.44

Rochdale0.89

1X2

49% 28% 23%

Northampton Draw Rochdale

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 55% Both teams to score 50%

Most likely score

1-1 14%

Recent form · 10 last

Northampton 3-3-4 (W-D-L)

WLLDWLWDLD

Rochdale 3-3-4 (W-D-L)

DWWWDLDLLL

Head-to-head

Northampton 1–3–2 Rochdale (6 last)

Rochdale1-1Northampton
Northampton3-0Rochdale
Rochdale1-0Northampton
Northampton1-3Rochdale
Northampton0-0Rochdale
Rochdale1-1Northampton

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Northampton 1450 · Rochdale 1444

	Northampton	Draw	Rochdale
Our model	49%	29%	22%
Market	50%	27%	23%

Estimated total (ours) 2.33 goals · Bet365 line 2.5 · -0.2

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 53%model estimate

Match keys

H2H favours Rochdale: 2-3-1.
High corners: 10.6 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 6.2 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Northampton	Rochdale
Goals for / against (FT)	0.8 / 0.8	1.2 / 1.7
Goals for / against (HT)	0.4 / 0.4	0.4 / 1
Half-time result (W/D/L)	40/30/30%	30/30/40%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.5 / 5.6	2.9 / 5
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.3 / 0.1	2.9 / 0.2

Odds Bet365

11.83

X3.40

23.90

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.5)1.88

2 (+0.5)1.98

Line ⓘ

Over 2.52.02

Under 2.51.82

Diff.: 0.25 · xG: 2.25

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 00:26

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.83 → 1.83	Bet365 1.83
X	3.40 → 3.40	Pinn 3.89 ★
2	3.90 → 3.90	Pinn 4.21

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 9.6% Pinnacle margin 6.4%

Time*	1	X	2
00:24 +2’	1.83	3.40	3.90

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
00:25 +1’	1.76	3.89	4.21

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Northampton 1–3–2 Rochdale

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Date	Home	Score	Away
11/02/23 England League 2	Rochdale	1-1 HT 0-0	Northampton
17/09/22 England League 2	Northampton	3-0 HT 1-0	Rochdale
26/02/22 England League 2	Rochdale	1-0 HT 0-0	Northampton
21/08/21 England League 2	Northampton	1-3 HT 1-1	Rochdale
23/02/21 England League 1	Northampton	0-0 HT 0-0	Rochdale
24/11/20 England League 1	Rochdale	1-1 HT 0-1	Northampton

Standings · England League 2

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Salford City	15	10	2	3	26	16	32
2	Barnet	13	7	5	1	28	18	26
3	Grimsby	15	6	5	4	28	19	23
4	York	15	6	5	4	25	21	23
5	Crewe	15	5	8	2	19	19	23
6	Walsall	13	5	7	1	21	12	22
7	Chesterfield	15	6	4	5	26	21	22
8	Exeter	15	6	4	5	12	9	22
9	Cheltenham	15	6	3	6	23	26	21
10	Shrewsbury	15	6	3	6	19	23	21
11	Fleetwood Town	15	5	5	5	19	18	20
12	Gillingham	15	5	5	5	20	21	20
13	Accrington Stanley	15	4	7	4	25	21	19
14	Newport County	15	4	7	4	22	19	19
15	Tranmere	15	4	7	4	19	18	19
16	Swindon	15	5	4	6	16	21	19
17	Port Vale	13	5	3	5	14	16	18
18	Bristol Rovers	15	5	1	9	17	25	16
19	Northampton	14	3	6	5	10	11	15
20	Oldham	15	4	3	8	16	21	15
21	Colchester	14	3	6	5	14	19	15
22	Rochdale	15	4	3	8	17	27	15
23	Rotherham	14	2	6	6	18	25	12
24	Crawley Town	12	2	3	7	13	21	9

Common opponents 5 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Northampton	Rochdale
Oldham	0-1 L	2-0 W
Accrington Stanley	1-1 D	0-5 L
Tranmere	0-1 L	1-1 D
Grimsby	2-0 W	2-2 D
York	1-1 D	0-1 L
Record vs common	1 W 2 D 2 L	1 W 2 D 2 L

Better against common opponents: Northampton (3 of 5 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Northampton

WLLDWLWDLD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
14/11	Salford City England League 2	1-0	1-1	8	4	D
03/11	Oldham England League 2	0-0	0-1	3	1	L
31/10	Accrington Stanley England League 2	0-1	1-1	6	3	D
24/10	Colchester England League 2	1-0	2-0	7	3	W
20/10	Tranmere England League 2	0-1	0-1	9	2	L
17/10	Grimsby England League 2	1-0	2-0	7	7	W
10/10	York England League 2	1-0	1-1	4	3	D
19/09	Rotherham England League 2	0-0	0-1	5	4	L
12/09	Shrewsbury England League 2	0-2	0-2	5	2	L
05/09	Newport County England League 2	0-0	1-0	2	5	W

Rochdale

DWWWDLDLLL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
14/11	York England League 2	0-0	0-1	6	4	L
31/10	Port Vale England League 2	0-3	2-4	4	5	L
24/10	Accrington Stanley England League 2	0-3	0-5	3	5	L
20/10	Grimsby England League 2	1-0	2-2	7	6	D
17/10	Crewe England League 2	0-2	2-3	7	1	L
10/10	Tranmere England League 2	0-1	1-1	3	1	D
03/10	Swindon England League 2	0-0	1-0	11	2	W
26/09	Fleetwood Town England League 2	2-1	2-1	5	3	W
19/09	Oldham England League 2	1-0	2-0	0	0	W
12/09	Walsall England League 2	0-0	0-0	4	4	D

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Northampton vs Rochdale?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Northampton win (49%). Probabilities: Northampton 49%, draw 28%, Rochdale 23%.

How many goals are expected in Northampton vs Rochdale?

The model expects 2.33 goals (Northampton 1.44 · Rochdale 0.89), with a 55% chance of under 2.5 goals.

Will both teams score in Northampton vs Rochdale?

The model gives a 50% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.