Football · England League 2 · 21/11, 16:00
Prediction: Oldham vs Exeter
Prediction summary
Expected goals
2.11Total
Oldham1.27
Exeter0.83
1X2
Oldham
Draw
Exeter
Markets
Under 2.5 goals 58%
Not both to score 51%
Most likely score
1-1 14%
Recent form · 10 last
Oldham
2-2-6 (W-D-L)
Exeter
5-2-3 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Oldham
2–1–3
Exeter
(6 last)
- Oldham0-2Exeter
- Exeter2-1Oldham
- Oldham2-1Exeter
- Exeter1-2Oldham
- Exeter5-1Oldham
- Oldham0-0Exeter
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Oldham 1449 · Exeter 1547
| Oldham | Draw | Exeter | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 45% | 32% | 23% |
| Market | 47% | 27% | 25% |
Estimated total (ours)
2.11 goals · Bet365 line 2.5 · -0.4
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 67%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Exeter (rating 1449 vs 1547).
- H2H favours Exeter: 3-1-2.
- Cards-heavy: 6.5 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Oldham | Exeter | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 0.9 / 1.6 | 0.8 / 0.5 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.4 / 0.8 | 0.2 / 0 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 10/40/50% | 20/80/0% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 1.7 / 3.9 | 2.1 / 4.4 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 3 / 0.4 | 3.5 / 0 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Oldham 2–1–3 Exeter
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 19/03/22 England League 2 | Oldham | 0-2 HT 0-0 | Exeter |
| 13/11/21 England League 2 | Exeter | 2-1 HT 1-0 | Oldham |
| 23/03/21 England League 2 | Oldham | 2-1 HT 1-0 | Exeter |
| 21/11/20 England League 2 | Exeter | 1-2 HT 1-2 | Oldham |
| 11/02/20 England League 2 | Exeter | 5-1 HT 2-1 | Oldham |
| 20/08/19 England League 2 | Oldham | 0-0 HT 0-0 | Exeter |
Standings · England League 2
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Salford City | 15 | 10 | 2 | 3 | 26 | 16 | 32 |
| 2 | Barnet | 13 | 7 | 5 | 1 | 28 | 18 | 26 |
| 3 | Grimsby | 15 | 6 | 5 | 4 | 28 | 19 | 23 |
| 4 | York | 15 | 6 | 5 | 4 | 25 | 21 | 23 |
| 5 | Crewe | 15 | 5 | 8 | 2 | 19 | 19 | 23 |
| 6 | Walsall | 13 | 5 | 7 | 1 | 21 | 12 | 22 |
| 7 | Chesterfield | 15 | 6 | 4 | 5 | 26 | 21 | 22 |
| 8 | Exeter | 15 | 6 | 4 | 5 | 12 | 9 | 22 |
| 9 | Cheltenham | 15 | 6 | 3 | 6 | 23 | 26 | 21 |
| 10 | Shrewsbury | 15 | 6 | 3 | 6 | 19 | 23 | 21 |
| 11 | Fleetwood Town | 15 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 19 | 18 | 20 |
| 12 | Gillingham | 15 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 20 | 21 | 20 |
| 13 | Accrington Stanley | 15 | 4 | 7 | 4 | 25 | 21 | 19 |
| 14 | Newport County | 15 | 4 | 7 | 4 | 22 | 19 | 19 |
| 15 | Tranmere | 15 | 4 | 7 | 4 | 19 | 18 | 19 |
| 16 | Swindon | 15 | 5 | 4 | 6 | 16 | 21 | 19 |
| 17 | Port Vale | 13 | 5 | 3 | 5 | 14 | 16 | 18 |
| 18 | Bristol Rovers | 15 | 5 | 1 | 9 | 17 | 25 | 16 |
| 19 | Northampton | 14 | 3 | 6 | 5 | 10 | 11 | 15 |
| 20 | Oldham | 15 | 4 | 3 | 8 | 16 | 21 | 15 |
| 21 | Colchester | 14 | 3 | 6 | 5 | 14 | 19 | 15 |
| 22 | Rochdale | 15 | 4 | 3 | 8 | 17 | 27 | 15 |
| 23 | Rotherham | 14 | 2 | 6 | 6 | 18 | 25 | 12 |
| 24 | Crawley Town | 12 | 2 | 3 | 7 | 13 | 21 | 9 |
Common opponents 3 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Oldham | Exeter |
|---|---|---|
| Shrewsbury | 1-2 L | 1-0 W |
| Cheltenham | 4-1 W | 1-0 W |
| Salford City | 1-4 L | 1-2 L |
| Record vs common | 1 W 0 D 2 L | 2 W 0 D 1 L |
Better against common opponents: Exeter (2 of 3 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Oldham
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14/11 | Shrewsbury England League 2 |
0-0 | 1-2 | 3 | 2 | L |
| 03/11 | Northampton England League 2 |
0-0 | 1-0 | 2 | 1 | W |
| 31/10 | Crawley Town England League 2 |
0-0 | 0-1 | 2 | 7 | L |
| 24/10 | Barnet England League 2 |
0-1 | 1-1 | 7 | 3 | D |
| 20/10 | Walsall England League 2 |
0-2 | 0-3 | 1 | 7 | L |
| 17/10 | Cheltenham England League 2 |
3-1 | 4-1 | 4 | 2 | W |
| 10/10 | Accrington Stanley England League 2 |
0-0 | 0-0 | 2 | 5 | D |
| 26/09 | Salford City England League 2 |
1-2 | 1-4 | 11 | 2 | L |
| 19/09 | Rochdale England League 2 |
0-1 | 0-2 | 6 | 0 | L |
| 12/09 | Chesterfield England League 2 |
0-1 | 1-2 | 1 | 5 | L |
Exeter
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14/11 | Cheltenham England League 2 |
0-0 | 1-0 | 5 | 2 | W |
| 31/10 | Salford City England League 2 |
1-0 | 1-2 | 5 | 4 | L |
| 24/10 | Fleetwood Town England League 2 |
0-0 | 2-1 | 5 | 2 | W |
| 20/10 | Crewe England League 2 |
1-0 | 2-0 | 3 | 2 | W |
| 17/10 | Colchester England League 2 |
0-0 | 0-0 | 2 | 4 | D |
| 10/10 | Shrewsbury England League 2 |
0-0 | 1-0 | 3 | 6 | W |
| 03/10 | Rotherham England League 2 |
0-0 | 1-0 | 8 | 3 | W |
| 26/09 | Bristol Rovers England League 2 |
0-0 | 0-1 | 3 | 2 | L |
| 19/09 | Tranmere England League 2 |
0-0 | 0-0 | 6 | 5 | D |
| 12/09 | Port Vale England League 2 |
0-0 | 0-1 | 4 | 5 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Oldham vs Exeter?
According to our model, the most likely result is a Oldham win (47%). Probabilities: Oldham 47%, draw 29%, Exeter 24%.
How many goals are expected in Oldham vs Exeter?
The model expects 2.11 goals (Oldham 1.27 · Exeter 0.83), with a 58% chance of under 2.5 goals.
Will both teams score in Oldham vs Exeter?
The model gives a 51% chance that not both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.