Football · England League 2 · 21/11, 16:00
Prediction: Crawley Town vs Fleetwood Town
Team pages: Crawley Town · Fleetwood Town
Prediction summary
Expected goals
2.65Total
Crawley Town1.11
Fleetwood Town1.54
1X2
Crawley Town
Draw
Fleetwood Town
Markets
Under 2.5 goals 51%
Both teams to score 53%
Most likely score
1-1 13%
Recent form · 10 last
Crawley Town
1-3-6 (W-D-L)
Fleetwood Town
3-2-5 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Crawley Town
2–3
Fleetwood Town
(5 last)
- Fleetwood Town1-0Crawley Town
- Crawley Town2-1Fleetwood Town
- Crawley Town1-2Fleetwood Town
- Fleetwood Town1-0Crawley Town
- Crawley Town1-0Fleetwood Town
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Crawley Town 1423 · Fleetwood Town 1503
| Crawley Town | Draw | Fleetwood Town | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 26% | 28% | 46% |
| Market | 27% | 26% | 47% |
Estimated total (ours)
2.65 goals · Bet365 line 2.75
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 53%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Fleetwood Town (rating 1423 vs 1503).
- H2H favours Fleetwood Town: 3-0-2.
- Cards-heavy: 8.7 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Crawley Town | Fleetwood Town | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1.1 / 1.9 | 1.3 / 1.5 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.3 / 1 | 0.3 / 0.7 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 10/30/60% | 10/60/30% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 2.3 / 4.3 | 2.3 / 5.5 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 4.6 / 0.3 | 4.1 / 0.2 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Crawley Town 2–0–3 Fleetwood Town
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 21/03/26 England League 2 | Fleetwood Town | 1-0 HT 0-0 | Crawley Town |
| 08/11/25 England League 2 | Crawley Town | 2-1 HT 1-0 | Fleetwood Town |
| 01/12/19 England FA Cup | Crawley Town | 1-2 HT 1-1 | Fleetwood Town |
| 24/01/15 England League 1 | Fleetwood Town | 1-0 HT 1-0 | Crawley Town |
| 13/09/14 England League 1 | Crawley Town | 1-0 HT 0-0 | Fleetwood Town |
Standings · England League 2
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Salford City | 15 | 10 | 2 | 3 | 26 | 16 | 32 |
| 2 | Barnet | 13 | 7 | 5 | 1 | 28 | 18 | 26 |
| 3 | Grimsby | 15 | 6 | 5 | 4 | 28 | 19 | 23 |
| 4 | York | 15 | 6 | 5 | 4 | 25 | 21 | 23 |
| 5 | Crewe | 15 | 5 | 8 | 2 | 19 | 19 | 23 |
| 6 | Walsall | 13 | 5 | 7 | 1 | 21 | 12 | 22 |
| 7 | Chesterfield | 15 | 6 | 4 | 5 | 26 | 21 | 22 |
| 8 | Exeter | 15 | 6 | 4 | 5 | 12 | 9 | 22 |
| 9 | Cheltenham | 15 | 6 | 3 | 6 | 23 | 26 | 21 |
| 10 | Shrewsbury | 15 | 6 | 3 | 6 | 19 | 23 | 21 |
| 11 | Fleetwood Town | 15 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 19 | 18 | 20 |
| 12 | Gillingham | 15 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 20 | 21 | 20 |
| 13 | Accrington Stanley | 15 | 4 | 7 | 4 | 25 | 21 | 19 |
| 14 | Newport County | 15 | 4 | 7 | 4 | 22 | 19 | 19 |
| 15 | Tranmere | 15 | 4 | 7 | 4 | 19 | 18 | 19 |
| 16 | Swindon | 15 | 5 | 4 | 6 | 16 | 21 | 19 |
| 17 | Port Vale | 13 | 5 | 3 | 5 | 14 | 16 | 18 |
| 18 | Bristol Rovers | 15 | 5 | 1 | 9 | 17 | 25 | 16 |
| 19 | Northampton | 14 | 3 | 6 | 5 | 10 | 11 | 15 |
| 20 | Oldham | 15 | 4 | 3 | 8 | 16 | 21 | 15 |
| 21 | Colchester | 14 | 3 | 6 | 5 | 14 | 19 | 15 |
| 22 | Rochdale | 15 | 4 | 3 | 8 | 17 | 27 | 15 |
| 23 | Rotherham | 14 | 2 | 6 | 6 | 18 | 25 | 12 |
| 24 | Crawley Town | 12 | 2 | 3 | 7 | 13 | 21 | 9 |
Common opponents 4 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Crawley Town | Fleetwood Town |
|---|---|---|
| Tranmere | 1-1 D | 1-0 W |
| Salford City | 1-2 L | 0-1 L |
| Cheltenham | 1-3 L | 2-4 L |
| Bristol Rovers | 0-2 L | 3-1 W |
| Record vs common | 0 W 1 D 3 L | 2 W 0 D 2 L |
Better against common opponents: Fleetwood Town (2 of 4 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Crawley Town
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 31/10 | Oldham England League 2 |
0-0 | 1-0 | 5 | 7 | W |
| 24/10 | Tranmere England League 2 |
0-0 | 1-1 | 5 | 3 | D |
| 20/10 | Shrewsbury England League 2 |
1-0 | 2-3 | 4 | 4 | L |
| 17/10 | Salford City England League 2 |
0-1 | 1-2 | 4 | 0 | L |
| 10/10 | Chesterfield England League 2 |
0-1 | 2-2 | 1 | 7 | D |
| 19/09 | Grimsby England League 2 |
0-2 | 0-2 | 6 | 6 | L |
| 12/09 | Cheltenham England League 2 |
1-2 | 1-3 | 8 | 6 | L |
| 05/09 | Accrington Stanley England League 2 |
1-1 | 2-3 | 4 | 6 | L |
| 01/09 | Northampton England League 2 |
0-1 | 1-1 | 4 | 3 | D |
| 29/08 | Bristol Rovers England League 2 |
0-2 | 0-2 | 2 | 7 | L |
Fleetwood Town
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14/11 | Tranmere England League 2 |
0-0 | 1-0 | 8 | 2 | W |
| 31/10 | Bristol Rovers England League 2 |
1-0 | 3-1 | 3 | 3 | W |
| 24/10 | Exeter England League 2 |
0-0 | 1-2 | 5 | 2 | L |
| 20/10 | Cheltenham England League 2 |
0-3 | 2-4 | 5 | 5 | L |
| 17/10 | Rotherham England League 2 |
0-0 | 2-0 | 9 | 8 | W |
| 10/10 | Walsall England League 2 |
0-0 | 1-1 | 7 | 7 | D |
| 03/10 | Salford City England League 2 |
0-0 | 0-1 | 4 | 2 | L |
| 26/09 | Rochdale England League 2 |
1-2 | 1-2 | 5 | 3 | L |
| 19/09 | Barnet England League 2 |
1-1 | 1-3 | 6 | 6 | L |
| 12/09 | Newport County England League 2 |
0-1 | 1-1 | 3 | 5 | D |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Crawley Town vs Fleetwood Town?
According to our model, the most likely result is an Fleetwood Town win (47%). Probabilities: Crawley Town 27%, draw 27%, Fleetwood Town 47%.
How many goals are expected in Crawley Town vs Fleetwood Town?
The model expects 2.65 goals (Crawley Town 1.11 · Fleetwood Town 1.54), with a 52% chance of under 2.75 goals.
Will both teams score in Crawley Town vs Fleetwood Town?
The model gives a 53% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.