Football · England League 2 · 21/11, 16:00

Prediction: Grimsby vs Rotherham

Team pages: Grimsby · Rotherham

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.23Total

Grimsby2.11

Rotherham1.12

1X2

59% 23% 18%

Grimsby Draw Rotherham

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 60% Both teams to score 56%

Most likely score

1-1 10%

Recent form · 10 last

Grimsby 5-1-4 (W-D-L)

WWLLLLDWWW

Rotherham 1-4-5 (W-D-L)

LDWDLLLDDL

Head-to-head

Grimsby 0–1–1 Rotherham (2 last)

Grimsby2-2Rotherham
Grimsby0-1Rotherham

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Grimsby 1498 · Rotherham 1439

	Grimsby	Draw	Rotherham
Our model	59%	22%	18%
Market	59%	23%	18%

Estimated total (ours) 3.23 goals · Bet365 line 3 · +0.2

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 66%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Grimsby (rating 1498 vs 1439).
Cards-heavy: 8.6 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Grimsby	Rotherham
Goals for / against (FT)	2.1 / 1.3	1.2 / 1.9
Goals for / against (HT)	0.9 / 0.7	0.8 / 0.8
Half-time result (W/D/L)	30/30/40%	20/60/20%
Corners (HT / FT)	3.7 / 6.7	1.2 / 3.3
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.5 / 0.3	4.1 / 0.5

Odds Bet365

11.55

X4.00

25.00

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-1)1.98

2 (+1)1.88

Line ⓘ

Over 31.95

Under 31.90

Diff.: 0.25 · xG: 3.25

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 00:26

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.55 → 1.55	Bet365 1.55
X	4.00 → 4.00	Pinn 4.58 ★
2	5.00 → 5.00	Bet365 5.00

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 9.5% Pinnacle margin 6.6%

Time*	1	X	2
23:41 +45’	1.55	4.00	5.00

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
00:25 +1’	1.55	4.58	4.99

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Grimsby 0–1–1 Rotherham

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Date	Home	Score	Away
30/07/24 Club Friendly List	Grimsby	2-2 HT 1-1	Rotherham
24/07/21 Club Friendly List	Grimsby	0-1 HT 0-0	Rotherham

Standings · England League 2

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Salford City	15	10	2	3	26	16	32
2	Barnet	13	7	5	1	28	18	26
3	Grimsby	15	6	5	4	28	19	23
4	York	15	6	5	4	25	21	23
5	Crewe	15	5	8	2	19	19	23
6	Walsall	13	5	7	1	21	12	22
7	Chesterfield	15	6	4	5	26	21	22
8	Exeter	15	6	4	5	12	9	22
9	Cheltenham	15	6	3	6	23	26	21
10	Shrewsbury	15	6	3	6	19	23	21
11	Fleetwood Town	15	5	5	5	19	18	20
12	Gillingham	15	5	5	5	20	21	20
13	Accrington Stanley	15	4	7	4	25	21	19
14	Newport County	15	4	7	4	22	19	19
15	Tranmere	15	4	7	4	19	18	19
16	Swindon	15	5	4	6	16	21	19
17	Port Vale	13	5	3	5	14	16	18
18	Bristol Rovers	15	5	1	9	17	25	16
19	Northampton	14	3	6	5	10	11	15
20	Oldham	15	4	3	8	16	21	15
21	Colchester	14	3	6	5	14	19	15
22	Rochdale	15	4	3	8	17	27	15
23	Rotherham	14	2	6	6	18	25	12
24	Crawley Town	12	2	3	7	13	21	9

Common opponents 6 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Grimsby	Rotherham
Swindon	4-1 W	1-2 L
Gillingham	4-1 W	1-4 L
Northampton	0-2 L	1-0 W
Shrewsbury	1-2 L	3-3 D
Newport County	1-2 L	2-2 D
Bristol Rovers	2-0 W	0-1 L
Record vs common	3 W 0 D 3 L	1 W 2 D 3 L

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Grimsby

WWLLLLDWWW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
14/11	Swindon England League 2	2-0	4-1	11	3	W
31/10	York England League 2	2-2	5-2	5	0	W
24/10	Gillingham England League 2	1-1	4-1	6	7	W
20/10	Rochdale England League 2	0-1	2-2	10	6	D
17/10	Northampton England League 2	0-1	0-2	3	7	L
10/10	Port Vale England League 2	0-1	0-1	4	2	L
03/10	Shrewsbury England League 2	0-1	1-2	8	7	L
26/09	Newport County England League 2	0-0	1-2	3	4	L
19/09	Crawley Town England League 2	2-0	2-0	9	6	W
12/09	Bristol Rovers England League 2	2-0	2-0	8	6	W

Rotherham

LDWDLLLDDL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
31/10	Swindon England League 2	0-1	1-2	0	5	L
24/10	Shrewsbury England League 2	2-1	3-3	4	4	D
20/10	Newport County England League 2	2-1	2-2	2	4	D
17/10	Fleetwood Town England League 2	0-0	0-2	5	8	L
10/10	Gillingham England League 2	1-1	1-4	2	5	L
03/10	Exeter England League 2	0-0	0-1	2	3	L
26/09	Crewe England League 2	1-1	1-1	3	3	D
19/09	Northampton England League 2	0-0	1-0	7	4	W
12/09	Salford City England League 2	2-2	3-3	4	6	D
05/09	Bristol Rovers England League 2	0-1	0-1	4	4	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Grimsby vs Rotherham?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Grimsby win (59%). Probabilities: Grimsby 59%, draw 23%, Rotherham 18%.

How many goals are expected in Grimsby vs Rotherham?

The model expects 3.23 goals (Grimsby 2.11 · Rotherham 1.12), with a 51% chance of over 3 goals.

Will both teams score in Grimsby vs Rotherham?

The model gives a 56% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.