Football · England League 2 · 14/11, 16:00

Prediction: Crewe vs Newport County

Team pages: Crewe · Newport County

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.46Total

Crewe1.45

Newport County1.01

1X2

46% 28% 26%

Crewe Draw Newport County

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 51% Both teams to score 52%

Most likely score

1-1 14%

Recent form · 10 last

Crewe 3-5-2 (W-D-L)

DDDDWWWLLD

Newport County 3-5-2 (W-D-L)

LDDWDWDDLW

Head-to-head

Crewe 1–2–3 Newport County (6 last)

Newport County2-0Crewe
Crewe2-2Newport County
Crewe0-3Newport County
Newport County2-1Crewe
Newport County1-1Crewe
Crewe4-2Newport County

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Crewe 1517 · Newport County 1532

	Crewe	Draw	Newport County
Our model	46%	29%	25%
Market	47%	27%	26%

Estimated total (ours) 2.46 goals · Bet365 line 2.5

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 54%model estimate

Match keys

H2H favours Newport County: 3-2-1.
Cards-heavy: 7.7 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Crewe	Newport County
Goals for / against (FT)	1.3 / 1.5	1.1 / 0.8
Goals for / against (HT)	0.7 / 1.1	0.6 / 0.4
Half-time result (W/D/L)	20/40/40%	20/50/30%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.7 / 3.5	1.9 / 4.7
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.1 / 0	4.6 / 0.1

Odds Bet365

11.95

X3.40

23.50

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.5)2.02

2 (+0.5)1.82

Line ⓘ

Over 2.51.85

Under 2.52.00

Diff.: 0.15 · xG: 2.35

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 00:32

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.95 → 1.95	Pinn 2.04 ★
X	3.40 → 3.40	Pinn 3.48
2	3.50 → 3.50	Pinn 3.51

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 9.3% Pinnacle margin 6.2%

Time*	1	X	2
00:14 +18’	1.95	3.40	3.50

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
17:34 +418’	2.04	3.48	3.51

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Crewe 1–2–3 Newport County

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Date	Home	Score	Away
29/12/25 England League 2	Newport County	2-0 HT 1-0	Crewe
10/12/25 England League 2	Crewe	2-2 HT 1-0	Newport County
08/02/25 England League 2	Crewe	0-3 HT 0-2	Newport County
28/09/24 England League 2	Newport County	2-1 HT 1-0	Crewe
29/12/23 England League 2	Newport County	1-1 HT 0-0	Crewe
15/08/23 England League 2	Crewe	4-2 HT 1-1	Newport County

Standings · England League 2

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Salford City	14	10	1	3	25	15	31
2	Barnet	13	7	5	1	28	18	26
3	Walsall	13	5	7	1	21	12	22
4	Crewe	14	5	7	2	17	17	22
5	Cheltenham	14	6	3	5	23	25	21
6	Grimsby	14	5	5	4	24	18	20
7	York	14	5	5	4	24	21	20
8	Gillingham	14	5	5	4	20	19	20
9	Accrington Stanley	14	4	7	3	23	17	19
10	Chesterfield	14	5	4	5	24	21	19
11	Tranmere	14	4	7	3	19	17	19
12	Exeter	14	5	4	5	11	9	19
13	Swindon	14	5	4	5	15	17	19
14	Newport County	14	4	6	4	20	17	18
15	Shrewsbury	14	5	3	6	17	22	18
16	Fleetwood Town	14	4	5	5	18	18	17
17	Bristol Rovers	14	5	1	8	17	23	16
18	Oldham	14	4	3	7	15	19	15
19	Port Vale	12	4	3	5	10	14	15
20	Rochdale	14	4	3	7	17	26	15
21	Northampton	13	3	5	5	9	10	14
22	Rotherham	14	2	6	6	18	25	12
23	Colchester	13	2	6	5	12	19	12
24	Crawley Town	12	2	3	7	13	21	9

Common opponents 4 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Crewe	Newport County
Chesterfield	1-5 L	4-1 W
Rotherham	1-1 D	2-2 D
Colchester	1-1 D	1-0 W
York	1-1 D	1-1 D
Record vs common	0 W 3 D 1 L	2 W 2 D 0 L

Better against common opponents: Newport County (2 of 4 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Crewe

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
31/10	Barnet England League 2	0-1	1-1	3	4	D
24/10	Chesterfield England League 2	0-5	1-5	4	0	L
20/10	Exeter England League 2	0-1	0-2	6	2	L
17/10	Rochdale England League 2	2-0	3-2	1	1	W
10/10	Swindon England League 2	0-0	1-0	2	3	W
03/10	Bristol Rovers England League 2	2-0	3-1	3	8	W
26/09	Rotherham England League 2	1-1	1-1	2	3	D
19/09	Shrewsbury England League 2	1-1	1-1	6	6	D
12/09	Colchester England League 2	0-1	1-1	3	1	D
05/09	York England League 2	1-1	1-1	5	3	D

Newport County

LDDWDWDDLW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
30/10	Chesterfield England League 2	4-0	4-1	6	5	W
24/10	Cheltenham England League 2	0-1	0-1	5	5	L
20/10	Rotherham England League 2	1-2	2-2	2	4	D
17/10	York England League 2	0-1	1-1	6	6	D
10/10	Colchester England League 2	0-0	1-0	5	3	W
03/10	Gillingham England League 2	0-0	0-0	2	6	D
26/09	Grimsby England League 2	0-0	2-1	7	4	W
19/09	Accrington Stanley England League 2	0-0	0-0	5	4	D
12/09	Fleetwood Town England League 2	1-0	1-1	9	5	D
05/09	Northampton England League 2	0-0	0-1	0	5	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Crewe vs Newport County?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Crewe win (46%). Probabilities: Crewe 46%, draw 28%, Newport County 26%.

How many goals are expected in Crewe vs Newport County?

The model expects 2.46 goals (Crewe 1.45 · Newport County 1.01), with a 51% chance of under 2.5 goals.

Will both teams score in Crewe vs Newport County?

The model gives a 52% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.