Football · England League 2 · 14/11, 13:30
Prediction: Exeter vs Cheltenham
Team pages: Exeter · Cheltenham
Prediction summary
Expected goals
2.46Total
Exeter1.45
Cheltenham1.01
1X2
Exeter
Draw
Cheltenham
Markets
Under 2.5 goals 53%
Both teams to score 52%
Most likely score
1-1 14%
Recent form · 10 last
Exeter
4-3-3 (W-D-L)
Cheltenham
4-2-4 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Exeter
2–1–3
Cheltenham
(6 last)
- Cheltenham2-2Exeter
- Cheltenham2-0Exeter
- Cheltenham1-2Exeter
- Exeter1-0Cheltenham
- Cheltenham3-1Exeter
- Exeter0-1Cheltenham
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Exeter 1547 · Cheltenham 1507
| Exeter | Draw | Cheltenham | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 46% | 29% | 25% |
| Market | 47% | 27% | 26% |
Estimated total (ours)
2.46 goals · Bet365 line 2.5
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 57%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Exeter (rating 1547 vs 1507).
- H2H favours Cheltenham: 3-1-2.
- Cards-heavy: 8.3 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Exeter | Cheltenham | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 0.7 / 0.5 | 1.5 / 1.8 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.2 / 0 | 1.2 / 0.7 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 20/80/0% | 50/30/20% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 2 / 4.3 | 1.4 / 3.9 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 3.4 / 0 | 4.9 / 0.3 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Exeter 2–1–3 Cheltenham
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 22/09/26 England EFL Trophy | Cheltenham | 2-2 HT 1-0 | Exeter |
| 13/08/25 England EFL Cup | Cheltenham | 2-0 HT 1-0 | Exeter |
| 01/04/24 England League 1 | Cheltenham | 1-2 HT 0-0 | Exeter |
| 16/09/23 England League 1 | Exeter | 1-0 HT 0-0 | Cheltenham |
| 18/03/23 England League 1 | Cheltenham | 3-1 HT 1-0 | Exeter |
| 20/08/22 England League 1 | Exeter | 0-1 HT 0-0 | Cheltenham |
Standings · England League 2
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Salford City | 14 | 10 | 1 | 3 | 25 | 15 | 31 |
| 2 | Barnet | 13 | 7 | 5 | 1 | 28 | 18 | 26 |
| 3 | Walsall | 13 | 5 | 7 | 1 | 21 | 12 | 22 |
| 4 | Crewe | 14 | 5 | 7 | 2 | 17 | 17 | 22 |
| 5 | Cheltenham | 14 | 6 | 3 | 5 | 23 | 25 | 21 |
| 6 | Grimsby | 14 | 5 | 5 | 4 | 24 | 18 | 20 |
| 7 | York | 14 | 5 | 5 | 4 | 24 | 21 | 20 |
| 8 | Gillingham | 14 | 5 | 5 | 4 | 20 | 19 | 20 |
| 9 | Accrington Stanley | 14 | 4 | 7 | 3 | 23 | 17 | 19 |
| 10 | Chesterfield | 14 | 5 | 4 | 5 | 24 | 21 | 19 |
| 11 | Tranmere | 14 | 4 | 7 | 3 | 19 | 17 | 19 |
| 12 | Exeter | 14 | 5 | 4 | 5 | 11 | 9 | 19 |
| 13 | Swindon | 14 | 5 | 4 | 5 | 15 | 17 | 19 |
| 14 | Newport County | 14 | 4 | 6 | 4 | 20 | 17 | 18 |
| 15 | Shrewsbury | 14 | 5 | 3 | 6 | 17 | 22 | 18 |
| 16 | Fleetwood Town | 14 | 4 | 5 | 5 | 18 | 18 | 17 |
| 17 | Bristol Rovers | 14 | 5 | 1 | 8 | 17 | 23 | 16 |
| 18 | Oldham | 14 | 4 | 3 | 7 | 15 | 19 | 15 |
| 19 | Port Vale | 12 | 4 | 3 | 5 | 10 | 14 | 15 |
| 20 | Rochdale | 14 | 4 | 3 | 7 | 17 | 26 | 15 |
| 21 | Northampton | 13 | 3 | 5 | 5 | 9 | 10 | 14 |
| 22 | Rotherham | 14 | 2 | 6 | 6 | 18 | 25 | 12 |
| 23 | Colchester | 13 | 2 | 6 | 5 | 12 | 19 | 12 |
| 24 | Crawley Town | 12 | 2 | 3 | 7 | 13 | 21 | 9 |
Common opponents 4 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Exeter | Cheltenham |
|---|---|---|
| Salford City | 1-2 L | 0-2 L |
| Fleetwood Town | 2-1 W | 4-2 W |
| Colchester | 0-0 D | 1-1 D |
| Tranmere | 0-0 D | 1-3 L |
| Record vs common | 1 W 2 D 1 L | 1 W 1 D 2 L |
Better against common opponents: Exeter (2 of 4 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Exeter
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 31/10 | Salford City England League 2 |
1-0 | 1-2 | 5 | 4 | L |
| 24/10 | Fleetwood Town England League 2 |
0-0 | 2-1 | 5 | 2 | W |
| 20/10 | Crewe England League 2 |
1-0 | 2-0 | 3 | 2 | W |
| 17/10 | Colchester England League 2 |
0-0 | 0-0 | 2 | 4 | D |
| 10/10 | Shrewsbury England League 2 |
0-0 | 1-0 | 3 | 6 | W |
| 03/10 | Rotherham England League 2 |
0-0 | 1-0 | 8 | 3 | W |
| 26/09 | Bristol Rovers England League 2 |
0-0 | 0-1 | 3 | 2 | L |
| 19/09 | Tranmere England League 2 |
0-0 | 0-0 | 6 | 5 | D |
| 12/09 | Port Vale England League 2 |
0-0 | 0-1 | 4 | 5 | L |
| 05/09 | Walsall England League 2 |
0-0 | 0-0 | 4 | 1 | D |
Cheltenham
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 31/10 | Tranmere England League 2 |
1-3 | 1-3 | 4 | 4 | L |
| 24/10 | Newport County England League 2 |
1-0 | 1-0 | 1 | 5 | W |
| 20/10 | Fleetwood Town England League 2 |
3-0 | 4-2 | 6 | 5 | W |
| 17/10 | Oldham England League 2 |
1-3 | 1-4 | 5 | 2 | L |
| 10/10 | Salford City England League 2 |
0-0 | 0-2 | 4 | 10 | L |
| 03/10 | Accrington Stanley England League 2 |
0-0 | 0-2 | 2 | 6 | L |
| 26/09 | Chesterfield England League 2 |
2-0 | 2-1 | 2 | 4 | W |
| 19/09 | Colchester England League 2 |
0-0 | 1-1 | 9 | 8 | D |
| 12/09 | Crawley Town England League 2 |
2-1 | 3-1 | 3 | 6 | W |
| 05/09 | Grimsby England League 2 |
2-0 | 2-2 | 3 | 2 | D |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Exeter vs Cheltenham?
According to our model, the most likely result is a Exeter win (46%). Probabilities: Exeter 46%, draw 28%, Cheltenham 26%.
How many goals are expected in Exeter vs Cheltenham?
The model expects 2.46 goals (Exeter 1.45 · Cheltenham 1.01), with a 53% chance of under 2.5 goals.
Will both teams score in Exeter vs Cheltenham?
The model gives a 52% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.