Football · England League 2 · 14/11, 16:00
Prediction: Rochdale vs York
Prediction summary
Expected goals
3.05Total
Rochdale1.23
York1.82
1X2
Rochdale
Draw
York
Markets
Under 3.5 goals 64%
Both teams to score 56%
Most likely score
1-1 12%
Recent form · 10 last
Rochdale
3-3-4 (W-D-L)
York
3-4-3 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Rochdale
0–2–4
York
(6 last)
- Rochdale1-1York
- York4-1Rochdale
- Rochdale1-2York
- Rochdale0-4York
- York1-0Rochdale
- Rochdale0-0York
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Rochdale 1436 · York 1524
| Rochdale | Draw | York | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 25% | 25% | 50% |
| Market | 25% | 24% | 51% |
Estimated total (ours)
3.05 goals · Bet365 line 3
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 60%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours York (rating 1436 vs 1524).
- H2H favours York: 4-2-0.
- Cards-heavy: 6.3 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Rochdale | York | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1.3 / 2 | 1.6 / 1.4 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.4 / 1.1 | 0.8 / 0.5 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 30/20/50% | 30/60/10% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 2.8 / 5 | 2.1 / 4.8 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 2.7 / 0.3 | 3.6 / 0.4 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Rochdale 0–2–4 York
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 25/04/26 England National League | Rochdale | 1-1 HT 0-0 | York |
| 11/11/25 England National League | York | 4-1 HT 1-1 | Rochdale |
| 11/10/25 England FA Cup Qualification | Rochdale | 1-2 HT 0-0 | York |
| 25/03/25 England National League | Rochdale | 0-4 HT 0-1 | York |
| 20/08/24 England National League | York | 1-0 HT 1-0 | Rochdale |
| 16/12/23 England National League | Rochdale | 0-0 HT 0-0 | York |
Standings · England League 2
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Salford City | 14 | 10 | 1 | 3 | 25 | 15 | 31 |
| 2 | Barnet | 13 | 7 | 5 | 1 | 28 | 18 | 26 |
| 3 | Walsall | 13 | 5 | 7 | 1 | 21 | 12 | 22 |
| 4 | Crewe | 14 | 5 | 7 | 2 | 17 | 17 | 22 |
| 5 | Cheltenham | 14 | 6 | 3 | 5 | 23 | 25 | 21 |
| 6 | Grimsby | 14 | 5 | 5 | 4 | 24 | 18 | 20 |
| 7 | York | 14 | 5 | 5 | 4 | 24 | 21 | 20 |
| 8 | Gillingham | 14 | 5 | 5 | 4 | 20 | 19 | 20 |
| 9 | Accrington Stanley | 14 | 4 | 7 | 3 | 23 | 17 | 19 |
| 10 | Chesterfield | 14 | 5 | 4 | 5 | 24 | 21 | 19 |
| 11 | Tranmere | 14 | 4 | 7 | 3 | 19 | 17 | 19 |
| 12 | Exeter | 14 | 5 | 4 | 5 | 11 | 9 | 19 |
| 13 | Swindon | 14 | 5 | 4 | 5 | 15 | 17 | 19 |
| 14 | Newport County | 14 | 4 | 6 | 4 | 20 | 17 | 18 |
| 15 | Shrewsbury | 14 | 5 | 3 | 6 | 17 | 22 | 18 |
| 16 | Fleetwood Town | 14 | 4 | 5 | 5 | 18 | 18 | 17 |
| 17 | Bristol Rovers | 14 | 5 | 1 | 8 | 17 | 23 | 16 |
| 18 | Oldham | 14 | 4 | 3 | 7 | 15 | 19 | 15 |
| 19 | Port Vale | 12 | 4 | 3 | 5 | 10 | 14 | 15 |
| 20 | Rochdale | 14 | 4 | 3 | 7 | 17 | 26 | 15 |
| 21 | Northampton | 13 | 3 | 5 | 5 | 9 | 10 | 14 |
| 22 | Rotherham | 14 | 2 | 6 | 6 | 18 | 25 | 12 |
| 23 | Colchester | 13 | 2 | 6 | 5 | 12 | 19 | 12 |
| 24 | Crawley Town | 12 | 2 | 3 | 7 | 13 | 21 | 9 |
Common opponents 6 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Rochdale | York |
|---|---|---|
| Port Vale | 2-4 L | 2-0 W |
| Accrington Stanley | 0-5 L | 1-1 D |
| Grimsby | 2-2 D | 2-5 L |
| Crewe | 2-3 L | 1-1 D |
| Swindon | 1-0 W | 4-0 W |
| Gillingham | 1-4 L | 3-0 W |
| Record vs common | 1 W 1 D 4 L | 3 W 2 D 1 L |
Better against common opponents: York (5 of 6 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Rochdale
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 31/10 | Port Vale England League 2 |
0-3 | 2-4 | 4 | 5 | L |
| 24/10 | Accrington Stanley England League 2 |
0-3 | 0-5 | 3 | 5 | L |
| 20/10 | Grimsby England League 2 |
1-0 | 2-2 | 7 | 6 | D |
| 17/10 | Crewe England League 2 |
0-2 | 2-3 | 7 | 1 | L |
| 10/10 | Tranmere England League 2 |
0-1 | 1-1 | 3 | 1 | D |
| 03/10 | Swindon England League 2 |
0-0 | 1-0 | 11 | 2 | W |
| 26/09 | Fleetwood Town England League 2 |
2-1 | 2-1 | 5 | 3 | W |
| 19/09 | Oldham England League 2 |
1-0 | 2-0 | 0 | 0 | W |
| 12/09 | Walsall England League 2 |
0-0 | 0-0 | 4 | 4 | D |
| 05/09 | Gillingham England League 2 |
0-1 | 1-4 | 6 | 3 | L |
York
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 31/10 | Grimsby England League 2 |
2-2 | 2-5 | 4 | 0 | L |
| 27/10 | Barnet England League 2 |
1-1 | 1-3 | 4 | 10 | L |
| 24/10 | Port Vale England League 2 |
0-0 | 2-0 | 2 | 1 | W |
| 20/10 | Accrington Stanley England League 2 |
0-0 | 1-1 | 7 | 5 | D |
| 17/10 | Newport County England League 2 |
1-0 | 1-1 | 0 | 6 | D |
| 10/10 | Northampton England League 2 |
0-1 | 1-1 | 8 | 3 | D |
| 26/09 | Gillingham England League 2 |
1-0 | 3-0 | 4 | 6 | W |
| 19/09 | Chesterfield England League 2 |
0-0 | 0-2 | 4 | 3 | L |
| 12/09 | Swindon England League 2 |
2-0 | 4-0 | 6 | 3 | W |
| 05/09 | Crewe England League 2 |
1-1 | 1-1 | 9 | 3 | D |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Rochdale vs York?
According to our model, the most likely result is an York win (51%). Probabilities: Rochdale 25%, draw 24%, York 51%.
How many goals are expected in Rochdale vs York?
The model expects 3.05 goals (Rochdale 1.23 · York 1.82), with a 51% chance of under 3 goals.
Will both teams score in Rochdale vs York?
The model gives a 56% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.