Football · England League 2 · 14/11, 16:00

Prediction: Salford City vs Northampton

Team pages: Salford City · Northampton

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.52Total

Salford City1.68

Northampton0.84

1X2

57% 25% 18%

Salford City Draw Northampton

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 50% Both teams to score 51%

Most likely score

1-1 12%

Recent form · 10 last

Salford City 9-1-0 (W-D-L)

WDWWWWWWWW

Northampton 3-3-4 (W-D-L)

DWLLDWLWDL

Head-to-head

Salford City 2–1–3 Northampton (6 last)

Salford City2-1Northampton
Northampton0-1Salford City
Northampton1-0Salford City
Salford City2-2Northampton
Salford City1-2Northampton
Northampton2-0Salford City

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Salford City 1583 · Northampton 1461

	Salford City	Draw	Northampton
Our model	56%	26%	17%
Market	57%	24%	18%

Estimated total (ours) 2.52 goals · Bet365 line 2.5

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 51%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Salford City (rating 1583 vs 1461).
H2H favours Northampton: 3-1-2.
High corners: 11.1 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 6.7 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Salford City	Northampton
Goals for / against (FT)	2.2 / 0.9	0.8 / 0.8
Goals for / against (HT)	0.8 / 0.4	0.4 / 0.4
Half-time result (W/D/L)	40/50/10%	40/30/30%
Corners (HT / FT)	3 / 5.9	2.4 / 5.2
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.6 / 0.2	3.1 / 0.2

Odds Bet365

11.60

X3.75

25.00

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.75)1.80

2 (+0.75)2.05

Line ⓘ

Over 2.51.82

Under 2.52.02

Diff.: 0.15 · xG: 2.35

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 00:31

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.60 → 1.60	Pinn 1.67 ★
X	3.75 → 3.75	Pinn 3.85
2	5.00 → 5.00	Bet365 5.00

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 9.2% Pinnacle margin 6.5%

Time*	1	X	2
00:28 +4’	1.60	3.75	5.00

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
17:34 +417’	1.67	3.85	4.83

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Salford City 2–1–3 Northampton

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Date	Home	Score	Away
07/01/23 England League 2	Salford City	2-1 HT 2-1	Northampton
08/10/22 England League 2	Northampton	0-1 HT 0-1	Salford City
29/01/22 England League 2	Northampton	1-0 HT 1-0	Salford City
25/09/21 England League 2	Salford City	2-2 HT 1-1	Northampton
11/01/20 England League 2	Salford City	1-2 HT 1-1	Northampton
19/10/19 England League 2	Northampton	2-0 HT 1-0	Salford City

Standings · England League 2

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Salford City	14	10	1	3	25	15	31
2	Barnet	13	7	5	1	28	18	26
3	Walsall	13	5	7	1	21	12	22
4	Crewe	14	5	7	2	17	17	22
5	Cheltenham	14	6	3	5	23	25	21
6	Grimsby	14	5	5	4	24	18	20
7	York	14	5	5	4	24	21	20
8	Gillingham	14	5	5	4	20	19	20
9	Accrington Stanley	14	4	7	3	23	17	19
10	Chesterfield	14	5	4	5	24	21	19
11	Tranmere	14	4	7	3	19	17	19
12	Exeter	14	5	4	5	11	9	19
13	Swindon	14	5	4	5	15	17	19
14	Newport County	14	4	6	4	20	17	18
15	Shrewsbury	14	5	3	6	17	22	18
16	Fleetwood Town	14	4	5	5	18	18	17
17	Bristol Rovers	14	5	1	8	17	23	16
18	Oldham	14	4	3	7	15	19	15
19	Port Vale	12	4	3	5	10	14	15
20	Rochdale	14	4	3	7	17	26	15
21	Northampton	13	3	5	5	9	10	14
22	Rotherham	14	2	6	6	18	25	12
23	Colchester	13	2	6	5	12	19	12
24	Crawley Town	12	2	3	7	13	21	9

Common opponents 3 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Salford City	Northampton
Crawley Town	2-1 W	1-1 D
Oldham	4-1 W	0-1 L
Rotherham	3-3 D	0-1 L
Record vs common	2 W 1 D 0 L	0 W 1 D 2 L

Better against common opponents: Salford City (3 of 3 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Salford City

WDWWWWWWWW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
31/10	Exeter England League 2	0-1	2-1	3	4	W
26/10	Walsall England League 2	1-0	4-2	6	1	W
20/10	Bristol Rovers England League 2	2-0	2-1	3	7	W
17/10	Crawley Town England League 2	1-0	2-1	5	0	W
10/10	Cheltenham England League 2	0-0	2-0	4	10	W
03/10	Fleetwood Town England League 2	0-0	1-0	12	2	W
26/09	Oldham England League 2	2-1	4-1	5	2	W
19/09	Swindon England League 2	0-0	1-0	12	3	W
12/09	Rotherham England League 2	2-2	3-3	3	6	D
05/09	Port Vale England League 2	0-0	1-0	6	3	W

Northampton

DWLLDWLWDL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
03/11	Oldham England League 2	0-0	0-1	3	1	L
31/10	Accrington Stanley England League 2	0-1	1-1	6	3	D
24/10	Colchester England League 2	1-0	2-0	7	3	W
20/10	Tranmere England League 2	0-1	0-1	9	2	L
17/10	Grimsby England League 2	1-0	2-0	7	7	W
10/10	York England League 2	1-0	1-1	4	3	D
19/09	Rotherham England League 2	0-0	0-1	5	4	L
12/09	Shrewsbury England League 2	0-2	0-2	5	2	L
05/09	Newport County England League 2	0-0	1-0	2	5	W
01/09	Crawley Town England League 2	1-0	1-1	4	3	D

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Salford City vs Northampton?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Salford City win (57%). Probabilities: Salford City 57%, draw 25%, Northampton 18%.

How many goals are expected in Salford City vs Northampton?

The model expects 2.52 goals (Salford City 1.68 · Northampton 0.84), with a 50% chance of over 2.5 goals.

Will both teams score in Salford City vs Northampton?

The model gives a 51% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.