Football · England League 2 · 14/11, 16:00
Prediction: Swindon vs Grimsby
Prediction summary
Expected goals
2.83Total
Swindon1.29
Grimsby1.54
1X2
Swindon
Draw
Grimsby
Markets
Over 2.5 goals 54%
Both teams to score 55%
Most likely score
1-1 13%
Recent form · 10 last
Swindon
3-3-4 (W-D-L)
Grimsby
4-2-4 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Swindon
3–1–2
Grimsby
(6 last)
- Grimsby4-0Swindon
- Swindon2-2Grimsby
- Grimsby0-4Swindon
- Swindon3-1Grimsby
- Grimsby2-0Swindon
- Swindon2-1Grimsby
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Swindon 1471 · Grimsby 1507
| Swindon | Draw | Grimsby | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 31% | 27% | 42% |
| Market | 32% | 26% | 43% |
Estimated total (ours)
2.83 goals · Bet365 line 3 · -0.2
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 57%model estimate
Match keys
- H2H favours Swindon: 3-1-2.
- High corners: 10.5 combined avg.
- Cards-heavy: 6.7 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Swindon | Grimsby | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1 / 1.2 | 1.9 / 1.4 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.6 / 0.4 | 0.7 / 0.9 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 30/50/20% | 20/30/50% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 1.8 / 4.2 | 3.2 / 6.3 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 2.2 / 0.4 | 4.5 / 0.2 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Swindon 3–1–2 Grimsby
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 25/04/26 England League 2 | Grimsby | 4-0 HT 3-0 | Swindon |
| 22/11/25 England League 2 | Swindon | 2-2 HT 2-2 | Grimsby |
| 18/04/25 England League 2 | Grimsby | 0-4 HT 0-2 | Swindon |
| 21/12/24 England League 2 | Swindon | 3-1 HT 2-0 | Grimsby |
| 20/04/24 England League 2 | Grimsby | 2-0 HT 0-0 | Swindon |
| 30/09/23 England League 2 | Swindon | 2-1 HT 1-0 | Grimsby |
Standings · England League 2
Swipe the table sideways →
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Salford City | 14 | 10 | 1 | 3 | 25 | 15 | 31 |
| 2 | Barnet | 13 | 7 | 5 | 1 | 28 | 18 | 26 |
| 3 | Walsall | 13 | 5 | 7 | 1 | 21 | 12 | 22 |
| 4 | Crewe | 14 | 5 | 7 | 2 | 17 | 17 | 22 |
| 5 | Cheltenham | 14 | 6 | 3 | 5 | 23 | 25 | 21 |
| 6 | Grimsby | 14 | 5 | 5 | 4 | 24 | 18 | 20 |
| 7 | York | 14 | 5 | 5 | 4 | 24 | 21 | 20 |
| 8 | Gillingham | 14 | 5 | 5 | 4 | 20 | 19 | 20 |
| 9 | Accrington Stanley | 14 | 4 | 7 | 3 | 23 | 17 | 19 |
| 10 | Chesterfield | 14 | 5 | 4 | 5 | 24 | 21 | 19 |
| 11 | Tranmere | 14 | 4 | 7 | 3 | 19 | 17 | 19 |
| 12 | Exeter | 14 | 5 | 4 | 5 | 11 | 9 | 19 |
| 13 | Swindon | 14 | 5 | 4 | 5 | 15 | 17 | 19 |
| 14 | Newport County | 14 | 4 | 6 | 4 | 20 | 17 | 18 |
| 15 | Shrewsbury | 14 | 5 | 3 | 6 | 17 | 22 | 18 |
| 16 | Fleetwood Town | 14 | 4 | 5 | 5 | 18 | 18 | 17 |
| 17 | Bristol Rovers | 14 | 5 | 1 | 8 | 17 | 23 | 16 |
| 18 | Oldham | 14 | 4 | 3 | 7 | 15 | 19 | 15 |
| 19 | Port Vale | 12 | 4 | 3 | 5 | 10 | 14 | 15 |
| 20 | Rochdale | 14 | 4 | 3 | 7 | 17 | 26 | 15 |
| 21 | Northampton | 13 | 3 | 5 | 5 | 9 | 10 | 14 |
| 22 | Rotherham | 14 | 2 | 6 | 6 | 18 | 25 | 12 |
| 23 | Colchester | 13 | 2 | 6 | 5 | 12 | 19 | 12 |
| 24 | Crawley Town | 12 | 2 | 3 | 7 | 13 | 21 | 9 |
Common opponents 3 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Swindon | Grimsby |
|---|---|---|
| Bristol Rovers | 0-0 D | 2-0 W |
| Rochdale | 0-1 L | 2-2 D |
| York | 0-4 L | 5-2 W |
| Record vs common | 0 W 1 D 2 L | 2 W 1 D 0 L |
Better against common opponents: Grimsby (3 of 3 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Swindon
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 31/10 | Rotherham England League 2 |
1-0 | 2-1 | 7 | 5 | W |
| 24/10 | Bristol Rovers England League 2 |
0-0 | 0-0 | 6 | 4 | D |
| 20/10 | Barnet England League 2 |
3-0 | 3-1 | 0 | 1 | W |
| 17/10 | Walsall England League 2 |
1-0 | 1-1 | 2 | 1 | D |
| 10/10 | Crewe England League 2 |
0-0 | 0-1 | 6 | 3 | L |
| 03/10 | Rochdale England League 2 |
0-0 | 0-1 | 5 | 2 | L |
| 26/09 | Accrington Stanley England League 2 |
1-1 | 1-1 | 6 | 2 | D |
| 19/09 | Salford City England League 2 |
0-0 | 0-1 | 5 | 3 | L |
| 12/09 | York England League 2 |
0-2 | 0-4 | 1 | 3 | L |
| 05/09 | Colchester England League 2 |
0-1 | 3-1 | 4 | 2 | W |
Grimsby
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 31/10 | York England League 2 |
2-2 | 5-2 | 5 | 0 | W |
| 24/10 | Gillingham England League 2 |
1-1 | 4-1 | 6 | 7 | W |
| 20/10 | Rochdale England League 2 |
0-1 | 2-2 | 10 | 6 | D |
| 17/10 | Northampton England League 2 |
0-1 | 0-2 | 3 | 7 | L |
| 10/10 | Port Vale England League 2 |
0-1 | 0-1 | 4 | 2 | L |
| 03/10 | Shrewsbury England League 2 |
0-1 | 1-2 | 8 | 7 | L |
| 26/09 | Newport County England League 2 |
0-0 | 1-2 | 3 | 4 | L |
| 19/09 | Crawley Town England League 2 |
2-0 | 2-0 | 9 | 6 | W |
| 12/09 | Bristol Rovers England League 2 |
2-0 | 2-0 | 8 | 6 | W |
| 05/09 | Cheltenham England League 2 |
0-2 | 2-2 | 7 | 2 | D |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Swindon vs Grimsby?
According to our model, the most likely result is an Grimsby win (42%). Probabilities: Swindon 31%, draw 26%, Grimsby 42%.
How many goals are expected in Swindon vs Grimsby?
The model expects 2.83 goals (Swindon 1.29 · Grimsby 1.54), with a 55% chance of under 3 goals.
Will both teams score in Swindon vs Grimsby?
The model gives a 55% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.