Football · England Championship · 17/10, 16:00

Prediction: Swansea vs West Ham

Team pages: Swansea · West Ham

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.87Total

Swansea1.3

West Ham1.57

1X2

31% 26% 43%

Swansea Draw West Ham

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 55% Both teams to score 55%

Most likely score

1-1 13%

Recent form · 10 last

Swansea 7-2-1 (W-D-L)

WDWWDLWWWW

West Ham 5-4-1 (W-D-L)

DLDWWWWDDW

Head-to-head

Swansea 2–1–3 West Ham (6 last)

Swansea4-1West Ham
West Ham1-0Swansea
West Ham1-0Swansea
Swansea1-4West Ham
West Ham1-4Swansea
Swansea0-0West Ham

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Swansea 1573 · West Ham 1558

	Swansea	Draw	West Ham
Our model	30%	27%	43%
Market	31%	25%	44%

Estimated total (ours) 2.87 goals · Bet365 line 2.75

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 61%model estimate

Match keys

H2H favours West Ham: 3-1-2.
Cards-heavy: 6.9 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Swansea	West Ham
Goals for / against (FT)	1.6 / 0.7	2.9 / 1.2
Goals for / against (HT)	0.7 / 0.5	1 / 0.8
Half-time result (W/D/L)	30/40/30%	50/20/30%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.4 / 3.6	2.4 / 6.8
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.4 / 0	3.5 / 0.3

Odds Bet365

13.00

X3.75

22.15

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+0.25)1.93

2 (-0.25)1.93

Line ⓘ

Over 2.751.98

Under 2.751.88

Diff.: 0.45 · xG: 3.2

Market movement

Match winner · 8 moves · last 05:16

	Bet365	Best now
1	3.30 → 3.00▼	Pinn 3.06
X	3.50 → 3.75▲	Bet365 3.75
2	2.00 → 2.15▲	Pinn 2.20 ★

See the full journey (8)

Bet365 margin 6.5% Pinnacle margin 4.9%

Time*	1	X	2
15:14 +13’	3.30	3.50	2.00
23:52 +20’	2.60▼	3.60▲	2.40▲
12:16 +7’	2.70▲	3.60	2.30▼
00:03 +8’	2.88▲	3.60	2.20▼
01:10 +3’	2.90▲	3.60	2.15▼
02:15 +1’	3.00▲	3.60	2.10▼
03:01 +11’	3.10▲	3.75▲	2.10
05:14 +2’	3.00▼	3.75	2.15▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
21:13 +3’	3.04	3.65	2.18
22:15 +1’	3.03▼	3.70▲	2.22▲
00:39 +34’	3.12▲	3.71▲	2.17▼
01:48 +28’	3.22▲	3.74▲	2.12▼
04:19 +57’	3.13▼	3.73▼	2.16▲
10:16 +57’	3.09▼	3.73	2.18▲
20:09 +51’	3.06▼	3.73	2.20▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Other markets

Over/Under 2.75

Go premium to see every market's movement

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Swansea 2–1–3 West Ham

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Date	Home	Score	Away
03/03/18 England Premier League	Swansea	4-1 HT 2-0	West Ham
30/09/17 England Premier League	West Ham	1-0 HT 0-0	Swansea
08/04/17 England Premier League	West Ham	1-0 HT 1-0	Swansea
26/12/16 England Premier League	Swansea	1-4 HT 0-1	West Ham
07/05/16 England Premier League	West Ham	1-4 HT 0-2	Swansea
20/12/15 England Premier League	Swansea	0-0 HT 0-0	West Ham

Standings · England Championship

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Swansea	10	7	2	1	16	7	23
2	Middlesbrough	10	6	3	1	20	14	21
3	West Ham	10	5	4	1	29	12	19
4	Birmingham	10	4	5	1	17	11	17
5	QPR	10	4	5	1	15	9	17
6	West Brom	10	5	2	3	12	10	17
7	Southampton	10	6	2	2	21	10	16
8	Stoke	10	5	1	4	17	16	16
9	Blackburn	10	4	3	3	15	13	15
10	Wolverhampton	9	4	2	3	16	14	14
11	Millwall	10	4	2	4	16	16	14
12	Bristol City	10	4	2	4	12	14	14
13	Charlton	10	3	5	2	10	13	14
14	Bolton	10	4	1	5	15	18	13
15	Sheff Utd	10	3	3	4	14	14	12
16	Portsmouth	9	3	2	4	12	13	11
17	Wrexham	10	2	5	3	11	15	11
18	Lincoln City	10	3	2	5	7	17	11
19	Cardiff	10	2	4	4	16	15	10
20	Norwich	10	3	0	7	17	20	9
21	Burnley	10	1	5	4	15	19	8
22	Watford	10	2	2	6	8	19	8
23	Derby	10	1	3	6	9	19	6
24	Preston	10	1	1	8	8	20	4

Common opponents 6 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Swansea	West Ham
Millwall	1-0 W	2-2 D
Lincoln City	2-1 W	6-0 W
Burnley	3-1 W	2-2 D
Wrexham	0-0 D	6-0 W
Watford	2-0 W	1-1 D
Derby	3-0 W	3-0 W
Record vs common	5 W 1 D 0 L	3 W 3 D 0 L

Better against common opponents: Swansea (3 of 6 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Swansea

WDWWDLWWWW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
13/10	Millwall England Championship	0-0	1-0	2	5	W
10/10	Norwich England Championship	0-1	2-1	3	2	W
19/09	Lincoln City England Championship	0-1	2-1	0	3	W
12/09	Burnley England Championship	2-0	3-1	3	3	W
08/09	Southampton England Championship	0-2	1-3	3	1	L
05/09	Wrexham England Championship	0-0	0-0	5	3	D
01/09	Watford England Championship	2-0	2-0	5	4	W
29/08	Derby England Championship	2-0	3-0	6	6	W
22/08	Sheff Utd England Championship	0-0	0-0	–	–	D
15/08	Stoke England Championship	1-1	2-1	5	4	W

West Ham

DLDWWWWDDW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
14/10	Lincoln City England Championship	1-0	6-0	11	4	W
09/10	QPR England Championship	0-1	1-1	4	7	D
19/09	Millwall England Championship	0-2	2-2	11	5	D
11/09	Wrexham England Championship	2-0	6-0	3	1	W
08/09	Bolton England Championship	2-2	3-2	4	2	W
05/09	Derby England Championship	1-0	3-0	5	2	W
01/09	Wolverhampton England Championship	2-1	4-2	6	3	W
29/08	Watford England Championship	1-1	1-1	11	4	D
22/08	Charlton England Championship	0-1	1-2	7	5	L
16/08	Burnley England Championship	1-0	2-2	6	5	D

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Swansea vs West Ham?

According to our model, the most likely result is an West Ham win (43%). Probabilities: Swansea 31%, draw 26%, West Ham 43%.

How many goals are expected in Swansea vs West Ham?

The model expects 2.87 goals (Swansea 1.3 · West Ham 1.57), with a 51% chance of under 2.75 goals.

Will both teams score in Swansea vs West Ham?

The model gives a 55% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.