Football · England Championship · 04/11, 20:45

Prediction: Cardiff vs West Ham

Team pages: Cardiff · West Ham

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.7Total

Cardiff1.54

West Ham2.16

1X2

26% 23% 51%

Cardiff Draw West Ham

Markets

Over 3.5 goals 50% Both teams to score 60%

Most likely score

1-1 9%

Recent form · 10 last

Cardiff 3-2-5 (W-D-L)

LLDLWLWDWL

West Ham 6-2-2 (W-D-L)

WWWWDDWWLL

Head-to-head

Cardiff 1–1 West Ham (2 last)

Cardiff2-0West Ham
West Ham3-1Cardiff

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Cardiff 1483 · West Ham 1532

	Cardiff	Draw	West Ham
Our model	27%	22%	51%
Market	26%	23%	51%

Estimated total (ours) 3.7 goals · Bet365 line 3.5 · +0.2

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 76%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours West Ham (rating 1483 vs 1532).
High corners: 12.4 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 7.1 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Cardiff	West Ham
Goals for / against (FT)	1.4 / 1.5	2.9 / 1.3
Goals for / against (HT)	0.9 / 0.8	1.1 / 1
Half-time result (W/D/L)	40/10/50%	50/20/30%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.3 / 5.8	2.5 / 6.6
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.1 / 0.1	3 / 0.3

Odds Bet365

13.60

X4.00

21.85

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+0.5)1.98

2 (-0.5)1.88

Line ⓘ

Over 3.51.95

Under 3.51.90

Diff.: 0.05 · xG: 3.55

Market movement

Match winner · 3 moves · last 02:23

	Bet365	Best now
1	3.90 → 3.60▼	Bet365 3.60
X	4.10 → 4.00▼	Pinn 4.25 ★
2	1.70 → 1.85▲	Pinn 1.93

See the full journey (3)

Bet365 margin 6.8% Pinnacle margin 5%

Time*	1	X	2
20:33 +11’	3.90	4.10	1.70
22:29 +1’	3.40▼	3.90▼	1.83▲
02:10 +13’	3.60▲	4.00▲	1.85▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
20:11 +32’	3.62	4.31	1.85
21:50 +40’	3.34▼	4.20▼	1.95▲
12:27 +29’	3.28▼	4.21▲	1.97▲
15:14 +6’	3.39▲	4.25▲	1.93▼

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Other markets

Both teams to score

Go premium to see every market's movement

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · Cardiff 1–0–1 West Ham

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Home	Score	Away
09/03/19 England Premier League	Cardiff	2-0 HT 1-0	West Ham
04/12/18 England Premier League	West Ham	3-1 HT 0-0	Cardiff

Standings · England Championship

Swipe the table sideways →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Middlesbrough	13	8	4	1	30	17	28
2	Swansea	13	8	2	3	20	13	26
3	Wolverhampton	13	7	3	3	23	16	24
4	West Brom	13	7	3	3	19	14	24
5	Southampton	13	8	3	2	28	13	23
6	Birmingham	13	6	5	2	23	13	23
7	Stoke	13	7	2	4	20	16	23
8	West Ham	13	6	4	3	33	18	22
9	QPR	13	5	5	3	21	16	20
10	Sheff Utd	13	5	4	4	17	15	19
11	Portsmouth	13	5	4	4	16	15	19
12	Millwall	13	5	3	5	23	21	18
13	Blackburn	13	5	3	5	19	20	18
14	Bristol City	13	5	3	5	15	17	18
15	Norwich	13	5	0	8	23	24	15
16	Lincoln City	13	4	3	6	14	23	15
17	Cardiff	13	3	5	5	19	20	14
18	Wrexham	13	3	5	5	15	19	14
19	Bolton	13	4	2	7	18	26	14
20	Charlton	13	3	5	5	11	21	14
21	Watford	13	3	2	8	12	23	11
22	Burnley	13	1	6	6	17	25	9
23	Derby	13	1	4	8	11	25	7
24	Preston	13	1	2	10	10	27	5

Common opponents 3 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Cardiff	West Ham
Wolverhampton	0-3 L	4-2 W
Bolton	0-1 L	3-2 W
QPR	1-2 L	1-1 D
Record vs common	0 W 0 D 3 L	2 W 1 D 0 L

Better against common opponents: West Ham (3 of 3 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Cardiff

LLDLWLWDWL

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
31/10	Wolverhampton England Championship	0-2	0-3	5	6	L
24/10	Birmingham England Championship	1-0	1-0	3	3	W
17/10	Middlesbrough England Championship	2-0	2-2	4	3	D
13/10	Watford England Championship	4-0	5-1	6	5	W
10/10	Blackburn England Championship	0-2	1-2	6	1	L
19/09	Charlton England Championship	2-1	3-1	6	8	W
12/09	Bolton England Championship	0-0	0-1	10	7	L
08/09	Stoke England Championship	0-1	1-1	7	3	D
05/09	Portsmouth England Championship	0-1	0-2	7	4	L
02/09	QPR England Championship	0-1	1-2	4	2	L

West Ham

WWWWDDWWLL

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
31/10	West Brom England Championship	1-1	1-3	8	4	L
24/10	Southampton England Championship	1-3	2-3	13	3	L
17/10	Swansea England Championship	1-0	1-0	1	2	W
14/10	Lincoln City England Championship	1-0	6-0	11	4	W
09/10	QPR England Championship	0-1	1-1	4	7	D
19/09	Millwall England Championship	0-2	2-2	11	5	D
11/09	Wrexham England Championship	2-0	6-0	3	1	W
08/09	Bolton England Championship	2-2	3-2	4	2	W
05/09	Derby England Championship	1-0	3-0	5	2	W
01/09	Wolverhampton England Championship	2-1	4-2	6	3	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Cardiff vs West Ham?

According to our model, the most likely result is an West Ham win (51%). Probabilities: Cardiff 26%, draw 23%, West Ham 51%.

How many goals are expected in Cardiff vs West Ham?

The model expects 3.7 goals (Cardiff 1.54 · West Ham 2.16), with a 50% chance of over 3.5 goals.

Will both teams score in Cardiff vs West Ham?

The model gives a 60% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.