Football · Australia Cup · 22/07, 11:30
Prediction: Sydney United 58 vs Central Coast Mariners
Prediction summary
Expected goals
2.99Total
Sydney United 581.58
Central Coast Mariners1.41
1X2
Sydney United 58
Draw
Central Coast Mariners
Markets
Over 2.5 goals 58%
Both teams to score 56%
Most likely score
1-1
Recent form · 10 last
Sydney United 58
5-2-3 (W-D-L)
Central Coast Mariners
3-4-3 (W-D-L)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Sydney United 58 1548 · Central Coast Mariners 1497
| Sydney United 58 | Draw | Central Coast Mariners | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 40% | 26% | 33% |
| Market | 42% | 24% | 34% |
Estimated total (ours)
2.99 goals · Bet365 line 3.25 · -0.3
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 57%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Sydney United 58 (rating 1548 vs 1497).
- Cards-heavy: 6.1 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Sydney United 58 | Central Coast Mariners | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1.2 / 0.6 | 1.4 / 1.8 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.7 / 0.2 | 0.4 / 0.8 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 40/40/20% | 30/20/50% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 2.8 / 5.6 | 1.2 / 3 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 2.9 / 0.2 | 3.2 / 0.2 |
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Sydney United 58
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12/07 | Rockdale Ilinden FC Australia New South Wales Premier League |
0-0 | 1-0 | 3 | 0 | W |
| 05/07 | Blacktown City Australia New South Wales Premier League |
0-0 | 0-0 | 3 | 4 | D |
| 26/06 | Sydney FC U21 Australia New South Wales Premier League |
0-0 | 0-1 | 7 | 2 | L |
| 21/06 | SD Raiders Australia New South Wales Premier League |
0-0 | 1-0 | 6 | 7 | W |
| 12/06 | Manly Utd Australia New South Wales Premier League |
1-0 | 1-1 | 7 | 4 | D |
| 06/06 | Western Sydney Wanderers U21 Australia New South Wales Premier League |
1-0 | 2-0 | 4 | 3 | W |
| 31/05 | Sutherland Sharks Australia New South Wales Premier League |
0-1 | 0-1 | 16 | 1 | L |
| 27/05 | Blacktown City Australia Cup Qualifying |
3-0 | 4-0 | 6 | 1 | W |
| 23/05 | University NSW Australia New South Wales Premier League |
0-1 | 0-2 | 2 | 5 | L |
| 16/05 | St George Saints Australia New South Wales Premier League |
2-0 | 3-1 | 2 | 4 | W |
Central Coast Mariners
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 25/04 | Newcastle Jets Australia A-League |
0-3 | 0-4 | 3 | 2 | L |
| 19/04 | Auckland FC Australia A-League |
1-0 | 1-0 | 1 | 6 | W |
| 10/04 | Brisbane Roar Australia A-League |
0-1 | 2-2 | 1 | 5 | D |
| 07/04 | Melbourne City Australia A-League |
0-1 | 1-2 | 4 | 2 | L |
| 04/04 | Perth Glory Australia A-League |
1-2 | 2-2 | 6 | 2 | D |
| 21/03 | Melbourne Victory Australia A-League |
1-0 | 1-4 | 4 | 1 | L |
| 14/03 | Adelaide United Australia A-League |
0-0 | 1-1 | 0 | 3 | D |
| 04/03 | Macarthur FC Australia A-League |
1-0 | 3-1 | 5 | 6 | W |
| 28/02 | Newcastle Jets Australia A-League |
0-0 | 0-0 | 5 | 2 | D |
| 22/02 | Western Sydney Wanderers Australia A-League |
0-1 | 3-2 | 1 | 5 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Sydney United 58 vs Central Coast Mariners?
According to our model, the most likely result is a Sydney United 58 win (41%). Probabilities: Sydney United 58 41%, draw 25%, Central Coast Mariners 34%.
How many goals are expected in Sydney United 58 vs Central Coast Mariners?
The model expects 2.99 goals (Sydney United 58 1.58 · Central Coast Mariners 1.41), with a 55% chance of under 3.25 goals.
Will both teams score in Sydney United 58 vs Central Coast Mariners?
The model gives a 56% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.