Football · Australia Cup · 21/07, 11:30
Prediction: Preston Lions vs Newcastle Jets
Prediction summary
Expected goals
2.81Total
Preston Lions1.16
Newcastle Jets1.65
1X2
Preston Lions
Draw
Newcastle Jets
Markets
Over 2.5 goals 53%
Both teams to score 54%
Most likely score
1-1
Recent form · 10 last
Preston Lions
8-0-2 (W-D-L)
Newcastle Jets
3-5-2 (W-D-L)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Preston Lions 1587 · Newcastle Jets 1527
| Preston Lions | Draw | Newcastle Jets | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 26% | 27% | 48% |
| Market | 28% | 22% | 50% |
Estimated total (ours)
2.81 goals · Bet365 line 3 · -0.2
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 50%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Preston Lions (rating 1587 vs 1527).
- High corners: 11.3 combined avg.
- Cards-heavy: 5.9 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Preston Lions | Newcastle Jets | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1.7 / 0.5 | 1.6 / 1.2 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.4 / 0.1 | 0.8 / 0.6 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 30/60/10% | 20/60/20% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 4 / 6.5 | 2.1 / 4.8 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 2.3 / 0 | 3.6 / 0 |
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Preston Lions
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10/07 | Hume City Australia NPL Victoria |
0-0 | 2-1 | 8 | 1 | W |
| 07/07 | North Sunshine Eagles Australia Victoria Cup |
0-0 | 1-0 | 6 | 1 | W |
| 04/07 | Avondale Australia NPL Victoria |
0-0 | 3-2 | 6 | 5 | W |
| 27/06 | Caroline Springs George Cross FC Australia NPL Victoria |
0-0 | 2-0 | 8 | 3 | W |
| 20/06 | Heidelberg Utd Australia NPL Victoria |
0-0 | 1-0 | 6 | 2 | W |
| 31/05 | St Albans Saints Australia NPL Victoria |
1-0 | 1-0 | 10 | 4 | W |
| 27/05 | Caroline Springs George Cross FC Australia Cup Qualifying |
2-0 | 6-0 | 8 | 0 | W |
| 24/05 | Oakleigh Cannons Australia NPL Victoria |
0-0 | 0-1 | 0 | 5 | L |
| 16/05 | Altona Magic Australia NPL Victoria |
0-1 | 0-1 | 7 | 1 | L |
| 08/05 | Dandenong City Australia NPL Victoria |
1-0 | 1-0 | 6 | 1 | W |
Newcastle Jets
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16/05 | Sydney FC Australia A-League |
0-0 | 1-1 | 8 | 10 | D |
| 09/05 | Sydney FC Australia A-League |
0-0 | 1-1 | 3 | 2 | D |
| 25/04 | Central Coast Mariners Australia A-League |
3-0 | 4-0 | 5 | 2 | W |
| 17/04 | Melbourne Victory Australia A-League |
1-2 | 2-2 | 3 | 4 | D |
| 11/04 | Adelaide United Australia A-League |
0-0 | 1-1 | 6 | 4 | D |
| 02/04 | Macarthur FC Australia A-League |
2-2 | 2-3 | 6 | 1 | L |
| 22/03 | Sydney FC Australia A-League |
1-0 | 2-1 | 5 | 7 | W |
| 14/03 | Auckland FC Australia A-League |
1-1 | 1-2 | 6 | 2 | L |
| 07/03 | Western Sydney Wanderers Australia A-League |
0-1 | 2-1 | 2 | 2 | W |
| 28/02 | Central Coast Mariners Australia A-League |
0-0 | 0-0 | 4 | 2 | D |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Preston Lions vs Newcastle Jets?
According to our model, the most likely result is an Newcastle Jets win (49%). Probabilities: Preston Lions 27%, draw 24%, Newcastle Jets 49%.
How many goals are expected in Preston Lions vs Newcastle Jets?
The model expects 2.81 goals (Preston Lions 1.16 · Newcastle Jets 1.65), with a 55% chance of under 3 goals.
Will both teams score in Preston Lions vs Newcastle Jets?
The model gives a 54% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.