Prediction: Western Sydney Wanderers vs Melbourne Victory
Team pages: Western Sydney Wanderers · Melbourne Victory
- Western Sydney Wanderers0-2Melbourne Victory
- Melbourne Victory0-1Western Sydney Wanderers
- Western Sydney Wanderers1-2Melbourne Victory
- Western Sydney Wanderers4-2Melbourne Victory
- Melbourne Victory2-2Western Sydney Wanderers
- Melbourne Victory3-4Western Sydney Wanderers
| Western Sydney Wanderers | Draw | Melbourne Victory | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 27% | 23% | 50% |
| Market | 26% | 24% | 50% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Melbourne Victory (rating 1452 vs 1527).
- H2H favours Western Sydney Wanderers: 3-1-2.
- High corners: 12 combined avg.
- Cards-heavy: 6.7 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Western Sydney Wanderers | Melbourne Victory | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1.6 / 2.3 | 2.1 / 1.1 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 1 / 0.9 | 0.9 / 0.5 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 30/40/30% | 40/50/10% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 2.9 / 5.5 | 3.3 / 6.5 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 3.1 / 0.1 | 3.6 / 0 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Western Sydney Wanderers 3–1–2 Melbourne Victory
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 25/04/26 Australia A-League | Western Sydney Wanderers | 0-2 HT 0-0 | Melbourne Victory |
| 10/01/26 Australia A-League | Melbourne Victory | 0-1 HT 0-1 | Western Sydney Wanderers |
| 10/05/25 Australia A-League | Western Sydney Wanderers | 1-2 HT 1-2 | Melbourne Victory |
| 15/03/25 Australia A-League | Western Sydney Wanderers | 4-2 HT 1-2 | Melbourne Victory |
| 04/01/25 Australia A-League | Melbourne Victory | 2-2 HT 1-1 | Western Sydney Wanderers |
| 27/04/24 Australia A-League | Melbourne Victory | 3-4 HT 2-2 | Western Sydney Wanderers |
Common opponents 5 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Western Sydney Wanderers | Melbourne Victory |
|---|---|---|
| Wellington Phoenix | 1-2 L | 0-1 L |
| Sydney FC | 0-2 L | 0-1 L |
| Adelaide United | 2-4 L | 1-1 D |
| Newcastle Jets | 1-2 L | 2-2 D |
| Macarthur FC | 4-0 W | 4-1 W |
| Record vs common | 1 W 0 D 4 L | 1 W 2 D 2 L |
Better against common opponents: Melbourne Victory (3 of 5 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Western Sydney Wanderers
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 28/07 | Chelsea Elite Club Friendlies |
2-2 | 4-6 | 8 | 1 | L |
| 22/07 | Tigers FC Australia Cup |
0-0 | 2-0 | 9 | 6 | W |
| 25/04 | Melbourne Victory Australia A-League |
0-0 | 0-2 | 4 | 1 | L |
| 18/04 | Wellington Phoenix Australia A-League |
1-1 | 1-2 | 4 | 1 | L |
| 11/04 | Sydney FC Australia A-League |
0-1 | 0-2 | 2 | 4 | L |
| 04/04 | Melbourne City Australia A-League |
0-2 | 0-3 | 3 | 7 | L |
| 20/03 | Adelaide United Australia A-League |
1-2 | 2-4 | 5 | 1 | L |
| 13/03 | Brisbane Roar Australia A-League |
2-1 | 2-2 | 10 | 5 | D |
| 07/03 | Newcastle Jets Australia A-League |
1-0 | 1-2 | 8 | 2 | L |
| 28/02 | Macarthur FC Australia A-League |
3-0 | 4-0 | 2 | 4 | W |
Melbourne Victory
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 26/07 | Kingborough Lions Australia Cup |
2-0 | 4-0 | 8 | 3 | W |
| 02/05 | Sydney FC Australia A-League |
0-0 | 0-1 | 10 | 4 | L |
| 25/04 | Western Sydney Wanderers Australia A-League |
0-0 | 2-0 | 5 | 1 | W |
| 17/04 | Newcastle Jets Australia A-League |
2-1 | 2-2 | 7 | 4 | D |
| 11/04 | Auckland FC Australia A-League |
1-1 | 2-2 | 6 | 6 | D |
| 05/04 | Wellington Phoenix Australia A-League |
0-0 | 0-1 | 7 | 3 | L |
| 21/03 | Central Coast Mariners Australia A-League |
0-1 | 4-1 | 8 | 1 | W |
| 15/03 | Macarthur FC Australia A-League |
2-1 | 4-1 | 3 | 5 | W |
| 07/03 | Sydney FC Australia A-League |
1-0 | 2-2 | 7 | 4 | D |
| 27/02 | Adelaide United Australia A-League |
1-1 | 1-1 | 4 | 5 | D |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Western Sydney Wanderers vs Melbourne Victory?
According to our model, the most likely result is an Melbourne Victory win (50%). Probabilities: Western Sydney Wanderers 26%, draw 24%, Melbourne Victory 50%.
How many goals are expected in Western Sydney Wanderers vs Melbourne Victory?
The model expects 3.49 goals (Western Sydney Wanderers 1.45 · Melbourne Victory 2.04), with a 52% chance of over 3 goals.
Will both teams score in Western Sydney Wanderers vs Melbourne Victory?
The model gives a 59% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.