Football · Australia Cup · 14/07, 11:30
Prediction: Apia L Tigers vs Peninsula Power
Prediction summary
Expected goals
3.03Total
Apia L Tigers1.82
Peninsula Power1.21
1X2
Apia L Tigers
Draw
Peninsula Power
Markets
Under 3.5 goals 64%
Both teams to score 56%
Most likely score
1-1
Recent form · 10 last
Apia L Tigers
6-1-3 (W-D-L)
Peninsula Power
10-0-0 (W-D-L)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Apia L Tigers 1546 · Peninsula Power 1617
| Apia L Tigers | Draw | Peninsula Power | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 51% | 25% | 24% |
| Market | 52% | 22% | 26% |
Estimated total (ours)
3.03 goals · Bet365 line 2.75 · +0.3
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 62%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Peninsula Power (rating 1546 vs 1617).
- High corners: 11.6 combined avg.
- Cards-heavy: 6.6 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Apia L Tigers | Peninsula Power | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1.6 / 1.1 | 3.1 / 0.9 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.5 / 0.6 | 1.2 / 0.6 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 30/40/30% | 60/40/0% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 2.9 / 5.6 | 3 / 6 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 3.3 / 0 | 3.3 / 0.1 |
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Apia L Tigers
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 04/07 | Sutherland Sharks Australia New South Wales Premier League |
0-1 | 2-3 | 12 | 4 | L |
| 28/06 | Rockdale Ilinden FC Australia New South Wales Premier League |
0-1 | 0-2 | 1 | 3 | L |
| 21/06 | Blacktown City Australia New South Wales Premier League |
1-1 | 3-1 | 7 | 2 | W |
| 13/06 | Wollongong Wolves Australia New South Wales Premier League |
1-0 | 2-0 | 6 | 0 | W |
| 06/06 | Manly Utd Australia New South Wales Premier League |
1-0 | 2-0 | 4 | 1 | W |
| 30/05 | NWS Spirit FC Australia New South Wales Premier League |
0-0 | 2-1 | 5 | 5 | W |
| 27/05 | Rockdale Ilinden FC Australia Cup Qualifying |
0-0 | 1-0 | 6 | 6 | W |
| 24/05 | Marconi Stallions Australia New South Wales Premier League |
0-0 | 1-1 | 3 | 4 | D |
| 16/05 | St George City FA Australia New South Wales Premier League |
0-2 | 1-2 | 5 | 2 | L |
| 09/05 | Sydney United 58 Australia New South Wales Premier League |
2-1 | 2-1 | 7 | 6 | W |
Peninsula Power
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 04/07 | Eastern Suburbs Australia NPL Queensland |
1-1 | 3-1 | 3 | 3 | W |
| 27/06 | Brisbane Roar NPL Australia NPL Queensland |
1-1 | 3-1 | 10 | 5 | W |
| 21/06 | Brisbane Olympic FC Australia NPL Queensland |
1-0 | 3-1 | 8 | 4 | W |
| 06/06 | Rochedale Rovers Australia NPL Queensland |
1-0 | 2-0 | 7 | 3 | W |
| 30/05 | Gold Coast United Australia NPL Queensland |
1-0 | 4-0 | 9 | 5 | W |
| 23/05 | Magic United Australia NPL Queensland |
1-1 | 3-2 | 4 | 2 | W |
| 20/05 | Moggill Australia Cup Qualifying |
2-1 | 4-1 | 4 | 2 | W |
| 15/05 | Gold Coast Knights Australia NPL Queensland |
1-0 | 2-0 | 3 | 4 | W |
| 08/05 | Brisbane City Australia NPL Queensland |
1-1 | 4-1 | 6 | 1 | W |
| 25/04 | Lions FC Australia NPL Queensland |
2-1 | 3-2 | 6 | 5 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Apia L Tigers vs Peninsula Power?
According to our model, the most likely result is a Apia L Tigers win (51%). Probabilities: Apia L Tigers 51%, draw 24%, Peninsula Power 25%.
How many goals are expected in Apia L Tigers vs Peninsula Power?
The model expects 3.03 goals (Apia L Tigers 1.82 · Peninsula Power 1.21), with a 52% chance of over 2.75 goals.
Will both teams score in Apia L Tigers vs Peninsula Power?
The model gives a 56% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.