Football · Australia Cup · 21/07, 12:00
Prediction: Cumberland United vs Heidelberg Utd
Prediction summary
Expected goals
3.2Total
Cumberland United0.99
Heidelberg Utd2.21
1X2
Cumberland United
Draw
Heidelberg Utd
Markets
Under 3.5 goals 60%
Both teams to score 54%
Most likely score
0-2
Recent form · 10 last
Cumberland United
6-1-3 (W-D-L)
Heidelberg Utd
4-3-3 (W-D-L)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Cumberland United 1543 · Heidelberg Utd 1504
| Cumberland United | Draw | Heidelberg Utd | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 15% | 21% | 64% |
| Market | 16% | 18% | 66% |
Estimated total (ours)
3.2 goals · Bet365 line 3.25
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 63%model estimate
Match keys
- High corners: 10.8 combined avg.
- Cards-heavy: 5.7 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Cumberland United | Heidelberg Utd | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 2.1 / 1.4 | 1.5 / 1.3 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 1 / 0.6 | 0.8 / 0.4 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 20/60/20% | 50/30/20% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 2.4 / 3.6 | 3.6 / 7.2 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 3.2 / 0.2 | 2.5 / 0 |
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Cumberland United
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11/07 | White City FK Beograd Australia South Australia Federation Cup |
1-1 | 2-2 | 1 | 9 | D |
| 04/07 | Adelaide Croatia Raiders Australia South Australia State League 1 |
1-2 | 1-2 | 4 | 2 | L |
| 26/06 | Eastern United Australia South Australia State League 1 |
0-0 | 1-0 | 5 | 4 | W |
| 20/06 | South Adelaide Australia South Australia State League 1 |
4-1 | 5-1 | 3 | 2 | W |
| 13/06 | Adelaide Cobras Australia South Australia State League 1 |
0-0 | 2-0 | 3 | 5 | W |
| 10/06 | Adelaide Cobras Australia Cup Qualifying |
1-1 | 3-2 | 8 | 3 | W |
| 06/06 | Adelaide Atletico Australia South Australia State League 1 |
0-1 | 1-2 | 4 | 4 | L |
| 30/05 | Salisbury United Australia South Australia State League 1 |
3-0 | 4-3 | 4 | 0 | W |
| 23/05 | Modbury Jets Australia South Australia State League 1 |
0-0 | 1-0 | 2 | 3 | W |
| 17/05 | Adelaide Olympic Australia South Australia State League 1 |
0-0 | 1-2 | 2 | 2 | L |
Heidelberg Utd
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11/07 | Melbourne City FC 2 Australia NPL Victoria |
1-1 | 2-2 | 9 | 6 | D |
| 03/07 | St Albans Saints Australia NPL Victoria |
1-0 | 1-1 | 5 | 4 | D |
| 30/06 | Brunswick Juventus Australia Cup Qualifying |
2-0 | 2-0 | 6 | 3 | W |
| 26/06 | Oakleigh Cannons Australia NPL Victoria |
0-0 | 0-1 | 2 | 0 | L |
| 20/06 | Preston Lions Australia NPL Victoria |
0-0 | 0-1 | 6 | 2 | L |
| 05/06 | Dandenong City Australia NPL Victoria |
0-2 | 1-4 | 12 | 0 | L |
| 29/05 | Dandenong Thunder Australia NPL Victoria |
1-0 | 4-2 | 7 | 2 | W |
| 26/05 | Bentleigh Greens Australia Cup Qualifying |
2-0 | 2-0 | 6 | 2 | W |
| 22/05 | Green Gully Australia NPL Victoria |
1-0 | 1-0 | 13 | 2 | W |
| 15/05 | Bentleigh Greens Australia NPL Victoria |
0-1 | 2-2 | 6 | 4 | D |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Cumberland United vs Heidelberg Utd?
According to our model, the most likely result is an Heidelberg Utd win (65%). Probabilities: Cumberland United 16%, draw 19%, Heidelberg Utd 65%.
How many goals are expected in Cumberland United vs Heidelberg Utd?
The model expects 3.2 goals (Cumberland United 0.99 · Heidelberg Utd 2.21), with a 52% chance of under 3.25 goals.
Will both teams score in Cumberland United vs Heidelberg Utd?
The model gives a 54% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 0-2.