Football · Australia Cup · 21/07, 11:30
Prediction: Lions FC vs Perth Glory
Prediction summary
Expected goals
3.18Total
Lions FC1.34
Perth Glory1.84
1X2
Lions FC
Draw
Perth Glory
Markets
Under 3.5 goals 61%
Both teams to score 57%
Most likely score
1-1
Recent form · 10 last
Lions FC
9-0-1 (W-D-L)
Perth Glory
2-5-3 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Lions FC
0–1–0
Perth Glory
(1 last)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Lions FC 1614 · Perth Glory 1493
| Lions FC | Draw | Perth Glory | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 27% | 25% | 48% |
| Market | 28% | 24% | 49% |
Estimated total (ours)
3.18 goals · Bet365 line 3.25
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 59%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Lions FC (rating 1614 vs 1493).
- Cards-heavy: 5.8 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Lions FC | Perth Glory | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 2.7 / 0.9 | 1.2 / 1.7 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 1.4 / 0.2 | 0.5 / 0.7 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 70/30/0% | 20/50/30% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 2.9 / 6.3 | 0.9 / 2.9 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 2.4 / 0 | 3.4 / 0.1 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Lions FC 0–1–0 Perth Glory
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 26/08/15 Australia FFA Cup | Lions FC | 0-0 | Perth Glory |
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Lions FC
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12/07 | Eastern Suburbs Australia NPL Queensland |
1-0 | 1-0 | 5 | 2 | W |
| 07/07 | Gold Coast Knights Australia NPL Queensland |
1-0 | 1-2 | 0 | 1 | L |
| 04/07 | Brisbane Olympic FC Australia NPL Queensland |
0-0 | 2-0 | 3 | 3 | W |
| 28/06 | Wynnum Wolves Australia NPL Queensland |
2-0 | 6-2 | 13 | 2 | W |
| 21/06 | Rochedale Rovers Australia NPL Queensland |
1-0 | 2-1 | 5 | 3 | W |
| 06/06 | Brisbane City Australia NPL Queensland |
3-0 | 4-0 | 8 | 4 | W |
| 31/05 | Magic United Australia NPL Queensland |
4-1 | 5-3 | 5 | 1 | W |
| 26/05 | Brisbane Olympic FC Australia Cup Qualifying |
0-0 | 1-0 | 12 | 1 | W |
| 15/05 | Brisbane Roar NPL Australia NPL Queensland |
1-1 | 3-1 | 7 | 5 | W |
| 09/05 | Moreton City Excelsior Australia NPL Queensland |
1-0 | 2-0 | 5 | 2 | W |
Perth Glory
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 25/04 | Brisbane Roar Australia A-League |
1-0 | 2-1 | 2 | 7 | W |
| 18/04 | Sydney FC Australia A-League |
0-0 | 0-0 | 1 | 3 | D |
| 12/04 | Macarthur FC Australia A-League |
0-0 | 3-1 | 2 | 6 | W |
| 04/04 | Central Coast Mariners Australia A-League |
2-1 | 2-2 | 4 | 2 | D |
| 22/03 | Melbourne City Australia A-League |
0-1 | 1-1 | 2 | 3 | D |
| 14/03 | Wellington Phoenix Australia A-League |
0-0 | 0-2 | 4 | 1 | L |
| 08/03 | Auckland FC Australia A-League |
1-1 | 2-2 | 2 | 2 | D |
| 28/02 | Brisbane Roar Australia A-League |
1-1 | 1-1 | 5 | 4 | D |
| 20/02 | Adelaide United Australia A-League |
0-2 | 0-4 | 2 | 3 | L |
| 13/02 | Newcastle Jets Australia A-League |
0-1 | 1-3 | 5 | 4 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Lions FC vs Perth Glory?
According to our model, the most likely result is an Perth Glory win (49%). Probabilities: Lions FC 27%, draw 24%, Perth Glory 49%.
How many goals are expected in Lions FC vs Perth Glory?
The model expects 3.18 goals (Lions FC 1.34 · Perth Glory 1.84), with a 54% chance of under 3.25 goals.
Will both teams score in Lions FC vs Perth Glory?
The model gives a 57% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.