Football · Colombia Primera A · 01/08, 03:00

Prediction: Fortaleza CEIF vs Deportivo Pereira

Prediction summary

Expected goals

1.9Total

Fortaleza CEIF1.36

Deportivo Pereira0.54

1X2

57% 28% 15%

Fortaleza CEIF Draw Deportivo Pereira

Markets

Over 1.5 goals 58% Not both to score 55%

Most likely score

1-0

Recent form · 10 last

Fortaleza CEIF 3-4-3 (W-D-L)

DDWLLWWLDD

Deportivo Pereira 3-3-4 (W-D-L)

LDLWLDWDWL

Head-to-head

Fortaleza CEIF 2–3–1 Deportivo Pereira (6 last)

Deportivo Pereira0-0Fortaleza CEIF
Fortaleza CEIF0-0Deportivo Pereira
Deportivo Pereira0-0Fortaleza CEIF
Deportivo Pereira2-0Fortaleza CEIF
Fortaleza CEIF1-0Deportivo Pereira
Fortaleza CEIF1-0Deportivo Pereira

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Fortaleza CEIF 1504 · Deportivo Pereira 1489

	Fortaleza CEIF	Draw	Deportivo Pereira
Our model	56%	30%	14%
Market	58%	26%	16%

Estimated total (ours) 1.9 goals · Bet365 line 2.25 · -0.4

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 61%model estimate

Match keys

H2H favours Fortaleza CEIF: 2-3-1.
Cards-heavy: 8.8 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Fortaleza CEIF	Deportivo Pereira
Goals for / against (FT)	1.3 / 1	0.7 / 0.9
Goals for / against (HT)	0.7 / 0.6	0.1 / 0.6
Half-time result (W/D/L)	30/30/40%	10/40/50%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.1 / 4.5	1.7 / 3.7
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.6 / 0.6	4.2 / 0.3

Odds Bet365

11.57

X3.60

25.75

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.75)1.75

2 (+0.75)2.05

Line ⓘ

Over 2.251.85

Under 2.251.95

Diff.: 0.3 · xG: 1.95

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 22:20

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.57 → 1.57	Bet365 1.57
X	3.60 → 3.60	Bet365 3.60
2	5.75 → 5.75	Bet365 5.75

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 8.8%

Time*	1	X	2
22:12 +8’	1.57	3.60	5.75

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Fortaleza CEIF 2–3–1 Deportivo Pereira

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Date	Home	Score	Away
24/01/26 Colombia Primera A	Deportivo Pereira	0-0 HT 0-0	Fortaleza CEIF
11/08/25 Colombia Primera A	Fortaleza CEIF	0-0 HT 0-0	Deportivo Pereira
03/06/25 Colombia Cup	Deportivo Pereira	0-0 HT 0-0	Fortaleza CEIF
23/02/25 Colombia Primera A	Deportivo Pereira	2-0 HT 2-0	Fortaleza CEIF
13/08/24 Colombia Primera A	Fortaleza CEIF	1-0 HT 0-0	Deportivo Pereira
16/05/24 Colombia Cup	Fortaleza CEIF	1-0 HT 1-0	Deportivo Pereira

Standings · Colombia Primera A · Finalizacion

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#	Team	P	W	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Deportivo Cali	1	1	0	2	0	3
2	Independiente Medellin	1	1	0	3	2	3
3	Deportes Tolima	1	1	0	2	1	3
4	Atletico Bucaramanga	1	1	0	1	0	3
5	Llaneros	1	1	0	1	0	3
6	Aguilas Doradas	0	0	0	0	0	0
6	Alianza	0	0	0	0	0	0
6	America de Cali	0	0	0	0	0	0
6	Atletico Nacional Medellin	0	0	0	0	0	0
6	Boyaca Chico	0	0	0	0	0	0
6	Once Caldas	0	0	0	0	0	0
6	Cucuta Deportivo	0	0	0	0	0	0
6	Fortaleza CEIF	0	0	0	0	0	0
6	Independiente Santa Fe	0	0	0	0	0	0
6	Internacional de Bogota	0	0	0	0	0	0
16	Deportivo Pasto	1	0	1	2	3	0
17	Junior	1	0	1	1	2	0
18	Deportivo Pereira	1	0	1	0	1	0
18	Millonarios	1	0	1	0	1	0
20	Jaguares de Cordoba	1	0	1	0	2	0

Common opponents 2 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Fortaleza CEIF	Deportivo Pereira
America de Cali	1-2 L	0-1 L
Aguilas Doradas	2-0 W	1-1 D
Record vs common	1 W 0 D 1 L	0 W 1 D 1 L

Better against common opponents: Fortaleza CEIF (1 of 2 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

League

Fortaleza CEIF

DDWLLWWLDD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
29/05	Cucuta Deportivo Colombia Cup	0-0	0-0	3	5	D
20/05	Orsomarso Colombia Cup	0-1	1-1	13	7	D
11/05	Independiente Medellin Colombia Cup	0-1	0-1	1	7	L
08/05	Itagui Leones Colombia Cup	3-0	4-1	4	3	W
03/05	Atletico Bucaramanga Colombia Primera A	1-0	2-1	6	3	W
26/04	Independiente Medellin Colombia Primera A	0-0	0-1	4	3	L
23/04	America de Cali Colombia Primera A	0-1	1-2	5	8	L
19/04	Aguilas Doradas Colombia Primera A	1-0	2-0	5	5	W
04/04	Internacional de Bogota Colombia Primera A	1-1	1-1	2	0	D
31/03	Millonarios Colombia Primera A	1-2	2-2	2	11	D

Deportivo Pereira

LDLWLDWDWL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
25/07	Llaneros Colombia Primera A	0-0	0-1	3	7	L
26/05	Jaguares de Cordoba Colombia Cup	0-0	1-0	4	4	W
21/05	Aguilas Doradas Colombia Cup	0-1	1-1	1	5	D
17/05	Real Soacha Cundinamarca Colombia Cup	0-0	1-0	4	2	W
08/05	Independiente Yumbo Colombia Cup	0-1	1-1	6	6	D
04/05	America de Cali Colombia Primera A	0-1	0-1	1	3	L
25/04	Atletico Nacional Medellin Colombia Primera A	1-0	1-0	5	7	W
19/04	Deportes Tolima Colombia Primera A	0-1	0-2	3	0	L
10/04	Once Caldas Colombia Primera A	0-0	0-0	5	6	D
06/04	Alianza Colombia Primera A	0-2	2-3	5	5	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Fortaleza CEIF vs Deportivo Pereira?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Fortaleza CEIF win (57%). Probabilities: Fortaleza CEIF 57%, draw 28%, Deportivo Pereira 15%.

How many goals are expected in Fortaleza CEIF vs Deportivo Pereira?

The model expects 1.9 goals (Fortaleza CEIF 1.36 · Deportivo Pereira 0.54), with a 56% chance of under 2.25 goals.

Will both teams score in Fortaleza CEIF vs Deportivo Pereira?

The model gives a 55% chance that not both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-0.