Football · Colombia Primera A · 01/08, 21:00

Prediction: Deportivo Pasto vs Aguilas Doradas

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.84Total

Deportivo Pasto1.77

Aguilas Doradas1.07

1X2

52% 27% 21%

Deportivo Pasto Draw Aguilas Doradas

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 54% Both teams to score 54%

Most likely score

1-1

Recent form · 10 last

Deportivo Pasto 2-1-7 (W-D-L)

LDWWLLLLLL

Aguilas Doradas 3-4-3 (W-D-L)

LWLLDWDWDD

Head-to-head

Deportivo Pasto 4–1–1 Aguilas Doradas (6 last)

Aguilas Doradas1-2Deportivo Pasto
Aguilas Doradas2-2Deportivo Pasto
Deportivo Pasto1-0Aguilas Doradas
Deportivo Pasto3-1Aguilas Doradas
Aguilas Doradas0-1Deportivo Pasto
Aguilas Doradas3-0Deportivo Pasto

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Deportivo Pasto 1452 · Aguilas Doradas 1491

	Deportivo Pasto	Draw	Aguilas Doradas
Our model	53%	26%	22%
Market	51%	28%	20%

Estimated total (ours) 2.84 goals · Bet365 line 2.25 · +0.6

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 57%model estimate

Match keys

H2H favours Deportivo Pasto: 4-1-1.
Cards-heavy: 10.7 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Deportivo Pasto	Aguilas Doradas
Goals for / against (FT)	1.1 / 1.7	1.4 / 1.7
Goals for / against (HT)	0.7 / 0.6	0.5 / 0.7
Half-time result (W/D/L)	30/50/20%	30/30/40%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.5 / 5	2.1 / 3.6
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	5 / 0.2	5.7 / 0.3

Odds Bet365

11.80

X3.25

24.50

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.5)1.80

2 (+0.5)2.00

Line ⓘ

Over 2.251.98

Under 2.251.82

Diff.: 0.7 · xG: 2.95

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 21:36

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.80 → 1.80	Pinn 1.85 ★
X	3.25 → 3.25	Pinn 3.30
2	4.50 → 4.50	Pinn 4.51

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 8.5% Pinnacle margin 6.4%

Time*	1	X	2
21:32 +3’	1.80	3.25	4.50

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
23:19	1.83	3.25	4.43
00:18	1.85▲	3.30▲	4.51▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Deportivo Pasto 4–1–1 Aguilas Doradas

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Date	Home	Score	Away
25/01/26 Colombia Primera A	Aguilas Doradas	1-2 HT 0-1	Deportivo Pasto
13/10/25 Colombia Primera A	Aguilas Doradas	2-2 HT 0-1	Deportivo Pasto
22/04/25 Colombia Primera A	Deportivo Pasto	1-0 HT 1-0	Aguilas Doradas
30/10/24 Colombia Primera A	Deportivo Pasto	3-1 HT 1-1	Aguilas Doradas
06/04/24 Colombia Primera A	Aguilas Doradas	0-1 HT 0-0	Deportivo Pasto
01/10/23 Colombia Primera A	Aguilas Doradas	3-0 HT 0-0	Deportivo Pasto

Standings · Colombia Primera A · Finalizacion

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#	Team	P	W	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Deportivo Cali	1	1	0	2	0	3
2	Independiente Medellin	1	1	0	3	2	3
3	Deportes Tolima	1	1	0	2	1	3
4	Atletico Bucaramanga	1	1	0	1	0	3
5	Llaneros	1	1	0	1	0	3
6	Aguilas Doradas	0	0	0	0	0	0
6	Alianza	0	0	0	0	0	0
6	America de Cali	0	0	0	0	0	0
6	Atletico Nacional Medellin	0	0	0	0	0	0
6	Boyaca Chico	0	0	0	0	0	0
6	Once Caldas	0	0	0	0	0	0
6	Cucuta Deportivo	0	0	0	0	0	0
6	Fortaleza CEIF	0	0	0	0	0	0
6	Independiente Santa Fe	0	0	0	0	0	0
6	Internacional de Bogota	0	0	0	0	0	0
16	Deportivo Pasto	1	0	1	2	3	0
17	Junior	1	0	1	1	2	0
18	Deportivo Pereira	1	0	1	0	1	0
18	Millonarios	1	0	1	0	1	0
20	Jaguares de Cordoba	1	0	1	0	2	0

Common opponents 4 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Deportivo Pasto	Aguilas Doradas
Independiente Medellin	2-3 L	2-1 W
Deportes Tolima	0-2 L	1-4 L
Junior	3-4 L	0-3 L
Jaguares de Cordoba	3-2 W	0-0 D
Record vs common	1 W 0 D 3 L	1 W 1 D 2 L

Better against common opponents: Deportivo Pasto (3 of 4 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

League

Deportivo Pasto

LDWWLLLLLL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
25/07	Independiente Medellin Colombia Primera A	2-2	2-3	4	7	L
22/07	Bogota FC Colombia Cup	0-0	0-1	8	3	L
14/05	Deportes Tolima Colombia Primera A	0-1	0-2	9	3	L
10/05	Deportes Tolima Colombia Primera A	0-1	0-1	6	3	L
04/05	Junior Colombia Primera A	1-0	3-4	2	5	L
24/04	Independiente Santa Fe Colombia Primera A	0-0	1-2	6	3	L
17/04	Jaguares de Cordoba Colombia Primera A	2-1	3-2	2	9	W
11/04	Deportes Tolima Colombia Primera A	1-0	1-0	1	3	W
01/04	Alianza Colombia Primera A	0-0	0-0	5	7	D
30/03	Atletico Nacional Medellin Colombia Primera A	1-1	1-2	7	9	L

Aguilas Doradas

LWLLDWDWDD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
26/05	Real Soacha Cundinamarca Colombia Cup	0-1	2-2	2	6	D
21/05	Deportivo Pereira Colombia Cup	1-0	1-1	6	5	D
18/05	Independiente Yumbo Colombia Cup	1-1	4-1	4	7	W
10/05	Jaguares de Cordoba Colombia Cup	0-0	0-0	4	5	D
03/05	Independiente Medellin Colombia Primera A	1-0	2-1	2	8	W
26/04	Once Caldas Colombia Primera A	0-1	2-2	4	9	D
19/04	Fortaleza CEIF Colombia Primera A	0-1	0-2	2	5	L
11/04	Junior Colombia Primera A	0-2	0-3	8	5	L
07/04	Atletico Bucaramanga Colombia Primera A	1-0	2-1	1	6	W
01/04	Deportes Tolima Colombia Primera A	1-1	1-4	3	4	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Deportivo Pasto vs Aguilas Doradas?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Deportivo Pasto win (52%). Probabilities: Deportivo Pasto 52%, draw 27%, Aguilas Doradas 21%.

How many goals are expected in Deportivo Pasto vs Aguilas Doradas?

The model expects 2.84 goals (Deportivo Pasto 1.77 · Aguilas Doradas 1.07), with a 55% chance of over 2.25 goals.

Will both teams score in Deportivo Pasto vs Aguilas Doradas?

The model gives a 54% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.