Football · Colombia Primera A · 02/08, 22:45
Prediction: Jaguares de Cordoba vs Atletico Nacional Medellin
Prediction summary
Expected goals
2.34Total
Jaguares de Cordoba0.81
Atletico Nacional Medellin1.53
1X2
Jaguares de Cordoba
Draw
Atletico Nacional Medellin
Markets
Under 2.5 goals 55%
Both teams to score 50%
Most likely score
0-1
Recent form · 10 last
Jaguares de Cordoba
3-2-5 (W-D-L)
Atletico Nacional Medellin
6-0-4 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Jaguares de Cordoba
0–6
Atletico Nacional Medellin
(6 last)
- Atletico Nacional Medellin2-1Jaguares de Cordoba
- Atletico Nacional Medellin2-1Jaguares de Cordoba
- Jaguares de Cordoba1-3Atletico Nacional Medellin
- Jaguares de Cordoba0-2Atletico Nacional Medellin
- Atletico Nacional Medellin2-0Jaguares de Cordoba
- Atletico Nacional Medellin2-1Jaguares de Cordoba
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Jaguares de Cordoba 1475 · Atletico Nacional Medellin 1557
| Jaguares de Cordoba | Draw | Atletico Nacional Medellin | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 19% | 28% | 53% |
| Market | 19% | 26% | 54% |
Estimated total (ours)
2.34 goals · Bet365 line 2.5 · -0.2
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 58%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Atletico Nacional Medellin (rating 1475 vs 1557).
- H2H favours Atletico Nacional Medellin: 6-0-0.
- High corners: 10.6 combined avg.
- Cards-heavy: 9.4 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Jaguares de Cordoba | Atletico Nacional Medellin | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1.2 / 1.2 | 1.7 / 1 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.5 / 0.5 | 0.5 / 0.6 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 10/70/20% | 20/50/30% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 2.3 / 3.8 | 3.2 / 6.8 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 5.1 / 0 | 4.3 / 0.5 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Jaguares de Cordoba 0–0–6 Atletico Nacional Medellin
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 07/04/26 Colombia Primera A | Atletico Nacional Medellin | 2-1 HT 1-1 | Jaguares de Cordoba |
| 25/10/24 Colombia Cup | Atletico Nacional Medellin | 2-1 HT 1-1 | Jaguares de Cordoba |
| 20/10/24 Colombia Cup | Jaguares de Cordoba | 1-3 HT 1-2 | Atletico Nacional Medellin |
| 31/08/24 Colombia Primera A | Jaguares de Cordoba | 0-2 HT 0-1 | Atletico Nacional Medellin |
| 28/03/24 Colombia Primera A | Atletico Nacional Medellin | 2-0 HT 0-0 | Jaguares de Cordoba |
| 30/07/23 Colombia Primera A | Atletico Nacional Medellin | 2-1 HT 1-1 | Jaguares de Cordoba |
Standings · Colombia Primera A · Finalizacion
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| # | Team | P | W | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Deportivo Cali | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 3 |
| 2 | Independiente Medellin | 1 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 3 |
| 3 | Deportes Tolima | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 3 |
| 4 | Atletico Bucaramanga | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3 |
| 5 | Llaneros | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3 |
| 6 | Aguilas Doradas | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 6 | Alianza | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 6 | America de Cali | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 6 | Atletico Nacional Medellin | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 6 | Boyaca Chico | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 6 | Once Caldas | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 6 | Cucuta Deportivo | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 6 | Fortaleza CEIF | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 6 | Independiente Santa Fe | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 6 | Internacional de Bogota | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 16 | Deportivo Pasto | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 0 |
| 17 | Junior | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 |
| 18 | Deportivo Pereira | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
| 18 | Millonarios | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
| 20 | Jaguares de Cordoba | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 |
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Jaguares de Cordoba
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 25/07 | Deportivo Cali Colombia Primera A |
0-0 | 0-2 | 3 | 7 | L |
| 26/05 | Deportivo Pereira Colombia Cup |
0-0 | 0-1 | 1 | 4 | L |
| 21/05 | Independiente Yumbo Colombia Cup |
2-0 | 3-0 | 5 | 5 | W |
| 10/05 | Aguilas Doradas Colombia Cup |
0-0 | 0-0 | 5 | 5 | D |
| 07/05 | Real Soacha Cundinamarca Colombia Cup |
0-1 | 1-2 | 10 | 2 | L |
| 02/05 | Cucuta Deportivo Colombia Primera A |
0-0 | 2-0 | 6 | 6 | W |
| 25/04 | Atletico Bucaramanga Colombia Primera A |
1-1 | 2-2 | 0 | 4 | D |
| 17/04 | Deportivo Pasto Colombia Primera A |
1-2 | 2-3 | 4 | 9 | L |
| 07/04 | Atletico Nacional Medellin Colombia Primera A |
1-1 | 1-2 | 2 | 5 | L |
| 03/04 | Millonarios Colombia Primera A |
0-0 | 1-0 | 2 | 4 | W |
Atletico Nacional Medellin
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 21/07 | Tigres FC Colombia Cup |
2-0 | 2-0 | 16 | 3 | W |
| 18/07 | Deportivo Tachira America Friendlies |
0-1 | 1-2 | 8 | 3 | L |
| 09/06 | Junior Colombia Primera A |
0-0 | 1-0 | 13 | 6 | W |
| 03/06 | Junior Colombia Primera A |
0-2 | 0-3 | 3 | 8 | L |
| 24/05 | Deportes Tolima Colombia Primera A |
0-0 | 3-1 | 7 | 3 | W |
| 17/05 | Deportes Tolima Colombia Primera A |
0-0 | 1-0 | 2 | 6 | W |
| 13/05 | Internacional de Bogota Colombia Primera A |
2-1 | 7-1 | 9 | 1 | W |
| 09/05 | Internacional de Bogota Colombia Primera A |
1-1 | 2-1 | 3 | 6 | W |
| 02/05 | Once Caldas Colombia Primera A |
0-0 | 0-1 | 4 | 5 | L |
| 25/04 | Deportivo Pereira Colombia Primera A |
0-1 | 0-1 | 3 | 7 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Jaguares de Cordoba vs Atletico Nacional Medellin?
According to our model, the most likely result is an Atletico Nacional Medellin win (54%). Probabilities: Jaguares de Cordoba 19%, draw 27%, Atletico Nacional Medellin 54%.
How many goals are expected in Jaguares de Cordoba vs Atletico Nacional Medellin?
The model expects 2.34 goals (Jaguares de Cordoba 0.81 · Atletico Nacional Medellin 1.53), with a 55% chance of under 2.5 goals.
Will both teams score in Jaguares de Cordoba vs Atletico Nacional Medellin?
The model gives a 50% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 0-1.