Football · Colombia Primera A · 26/08, 23:00

Prediction: Boyaca Chico vs Fortaleza CEIF

Team pages: Boyaca Chico · Fortaleza CEIF

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.18Total

Boyaca Chico1.11

Fortaleza CEIF1.08

1X2

35% 31% 34%

Boyaca Chico Draw Fortaleza CEIF

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 63% Both teams to score 50%

Most likely score

1-1

Recent form · 10 last

Boyaca Chico 3-0-7 (W-D-L)

LWLWLLWLLL

Fortaleza CEIF 3-4-3 (W-D-L)

DDWLLWDDLW

Head-to-head

Boyaca Chico 1–2–3 Fortaleza CEIF (6 last)

Fortaleza CEIF2-1Boyaca Chico
Fortaleza CEIF1-0Boyaca Chico
Boyaca Chico0-2Fortaleza CEIF
Boyaca Chico2-2Fortaleza CEIF
Fortaleza CEIF1-1Boyaca Chico
Fortaleza CEIF0-2Boyaca Chico

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Boyaca Chico 1440 · Fortaleza CEIF 1502

	Boyaca Chico	Draw	Fortaleza CEIF
Our model	35%	32%	33%
Market	35%	31%	34%

Estimated total (ours) 2.18 goals · Bet365 line 2 · +0.2

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 58%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Fortaleza CEIF (rating 1440 vs 1502).
H2H favours Fortaleza CEIF: 3-2-1.
Cards-heavy: 10.1 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Boyaca Chico	Fortaleza CEIF
Goals for / against (FT)	0.5 / 2.2	1.2 / 1.1
Goals for / against (HT)	0.1 / 1.2	0.7 / 0.6
Half-time result (W/D/L)	10/30/60%	40/30/30%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.4 / 5.2	1.8 / 4
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	5.6 / 0.3	4.5 / 0.3

Odds Bet365

12.63

X3.00

22.75

Handicap ⓘ

1 (0)1.85

2 (0)1.95

Line ⓘ

Over 21.93

Under 21.88

Diff.: 0.5 · xG: 2.5

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 18:08

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.63 → 2.63	Bet365 2.63
X	3.00 → 3.00	Bet365 3.00
2	2.75 → 2.75	Bet365 2.75

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 7.8%

Time*	1	X	2
18:05 +3’	2.63	3.00	2.75

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Boyaca Chico 1–2–3 Fortaleza CEIF

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Date	Home	Score	Away
16/02/26 Colombia Primera A	Fortaleza CEIF	2-1 HT 1-1	Boyaca Chico
14/10/25 Colombia Primera A	Fortaleza CEIF	1-0 HT 0-0	Boyaca Chico
22/04/25 Colombia Primera A	Boyaca Chico	0-2 HT 0-0	Fortaleza CEIF
01/09/24 Colombia Primera A	Boyaca Chico	2-2 HT 1-0	Fortaleza CEIF
23/02/24 Colombia Primera A	Fortaleza CEIF	1-1 HT 1-1	Boyaca Chico
29/10/22 Colombia Primera B	Fortaleza CEIF	0-2 HT 0-1	Boyaca Chico

Standings · Colombia Primera A · Finalizacion

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	America de Cali	5	4	1	0	11	0	13
2	Deportes Tolima	5	3	1	1	8	6	10
3	Independiente Medellin	4	3	0	1	7	5	9
4	Atletico Bucaramanga	5	2	3	0	6	4	9
5	Llaneros	4	2	2	0	6	3	8
6	Aguilas Doradas	4	2	2	0	6	4	8
7	Millonarios	4	2	1	1	4	2	7
8	Deportivo Cali	3	2	0	1	4	1	6
9	Once Caldas	4	1	2	1	8	5	5
10	Independiente Santa Fe	4	1	2	1	5	4	5
11	Fortaleza CEIF	4	1	2	1	4	4	5
12	Cucuta Deportivo	5	1	2	2	4	9	5
13	Internacional de Bogota	4	1	1	2	3	5	4
14	Jaguares de Cordoba	5	1	1	3	2	7	4
15	Atletico Nacional Medellin	2	1	0	1	3	1	3
16	Deportivo Pereira	3	0	2	1	0	1	2
17	Alianza	4	0	2	2	4	6	2
18	Junior	2	0	0	2	1	3	0
19	Deportivo Pasto	4	0	0	4	3	9	0
20	Boyaca Chico	3	0	0	3	0	10	0

Common opponents 7 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Boyaca Chico	Fortaleza CEIF
America de Cali	0-7 L	1-2 L
Llaneros	3-0 W	1-3 L
Internacional de Bogota	0-4 L	1-1 D
Independiente Medellin	0-2 L	0-1 L
Atletico Bucaramanga	0-5 L	2-1 W
Deportivo Pereira	1-0 W	0-0 D
Cucuta Deportivo	0-1 L	2-0 W
Record vs common	2 W 0 D 5 L	2 W 2 D 3 L

Better against common opponents: Fortaleza CEIF (5 of 7 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Boyaca Chico

LWLWLLWLLL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
21/08	Jaguares de Cordoba Colombia Primera A	0-1	0-1	11	10	L
08/08	Independiente Santa Fe Colombia Primera A	0-0	0-2	0	2	L
03/08	America de Cali Colombia Primera A	0-3	0-7	2	3	L
02/05	Llaneros Colombia Primera A	1-0	3-0	6	3	W
27/04	Internacional de Bogota Colombia Primera A	0-3	0-4	8	5	L
23/04	Independiente Medellin Colombia Primera A	0-2	0-2	3	5	L
17/04	Deportivo Cali Colombia Primera A	0-0	1-0	5	5	W
13/04	Atletico Bucaramanga Colombia Primera A	0-2	0-5	6	7	L
02/04	Deportivo Pereira Colombia Primera A	0-0	1-0	8	9	W
28/03	Cucuta Deportivo Colombia Primera A	0-1	0-1	3	10	L

Fortaleza CEIF

DDWLLWDDLW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
08/08	Cucuta Deportivo Colombia Primera A	1-0	2-0	1	4	W
04/08	Llaneros Colombia Primera A	1-2	1-3	3	6	L
01/08	Deportivo Pereira Colombia Primera A	0-0	0-0	9	4	D
27/07	Alianza Colombia Primera A	1-0	1-1	3	4	D
03/05	Atletico Bucaramanga Colombia Primera A	1-0	2-1	6	3	W
26/04	Independiente Medellin Colombia Primera A	0-0	0-1	4	3	L
23/04	America de Cali Colombia Primera A	0-1	1-2	5	8	L
19/04	Aguilas Doradas Colombia Primera A	1-0	2-0	5	5	W
04/04	Internacional de Bogota Colombia Primera A	1-1	1-1	2	0	D
31/03	Millonarios Colombia Primera A	1-2	2-2	2	11	D

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Boyaca Chico vs Fortaleza CEIF?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Boyaca Chico win (35%). Probabilities: Boyaca Chico 35%, draw 31%, Fortaleza CEIF 34%.

How many goals are expected in Boyaca Chico vs Fortaleza CEIF?

The model expects 2.18 goals (Boyaca Chico 1.11 · Fortaleza CEIF 1.08), with a 51% chance of over 2 goals.

Will both teams score in Boyaca Chico vs Fortaleza CEIF?

The model gives a 50% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.