Football · Colombia Primera A · 06/09, 01:00

Prediction: Boyaca Chico vs Once Caldas

Team pages: Boyaca Chico · Once Caldas

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.73Total

Boyaca Chico1.11

Once Caldas1.62

1X2

25% 28% 47%

Boyaca Chico Draw Once Caldas

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 51% Both teams to score 54%

Most likely score

1-1 13%

Recent form · 10 last

Boyaca Chico 2-2-6 (W-D-L)

LWLLWLLLDD

Once Caldas 3-5-2 (W-D-L)

WDWLDWDLDD

Head-to-head

Boyaca Chico 1–1–4 Once Caldas (6 last)

Once Caldas3-0Boyaca Chico
Once Caldas5-2Boyaca Chico
Boyaca Chico0-0Once Caldas
Boyaca Chico0-1Once Caldas
Once Caldas2-1Boyaca Chico
Boyaca Chico2-1Once Caldas

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Boyaca Chico 1449 · Once Caldas 1563

	Boyaca Chico	Draw	Once Caldas
Our model	25%	27%	48%
Market	24%	29%	47%

Estimated total (ours) 2.73 goals · Bet365 line 2.25 · +0.5

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 52%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Once Caldas (rating 1449 vs 1563).
H2H favours Once Caldas: 4-1-1.
Cards-heavy: 11.4 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Boyaca Chico	Once Caldas
Goals for / against (FT)	0.6 / 2.3	1.6 / 1.2
Goals for / against (HT)	0.3 / 1.1	0.6 / 0.4
Half-time result (W/D/L)	20/30/50%	30/50/20%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.3 / 4.6	1.8 / 5.2
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.4 / 0.1	7 / 0.2

Odds Bet365

13.80

X3.20

21.95

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+0.5)1.80

2 (-0.5)2.00

Line ⓘ

Over 2.251.95

Under 2.251.85

Diff.: 0.6 · xG: 2.85

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 03:31

	Bet365	Best now
1	3.80 → 3.80	Bet365 3.80
X	3.20 → 3.20	Bet365 3.20
2	1.95 → 1.95	Bet365 1.95

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 8.8%

Time*	1	X	2
03:31	3.80	3.20	1.95

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Boyaca Chico 1–1–4 Once Caldas

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Date	Home	Score	Away
28/02/26 Colombia Primera A	Once Caldas	3-0 HT 2-0	Boyaca Chico
27/09/25 Colombia Primera A	Once Caldas	5-2 HT 2-0	Boyaca Chico
13/04/25 Colombia Primera A	Boyaca Chico	0-0 HT 0-0	Once Caldas
16/07/24 Colombia Primera A	Boyaca Chico	0-1 HT 0-0	Once Caldas
20/01/24 Colombia Primera A	Once Caldas	2-1 HT 1-1	Boyaca Chico
09/10/23 Colombia Primera A	Boyaca Chico	2-1 HT 0-1	Once Caldas

Standings · Colombia Primera A · Finalizacion

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	America de Cali	7	5	2	0	17	4	17
2	Atletico Nacional Medellin	5	4	0	1	12	4	12
3	Independiente Medellin	5	4	0	1	9	6	12
4	Millonarios	6	3	2	1	6	2	11
5	Llaneros	7	3	2	2	8	7	11
6	Deportes Tolima	5	3	1	1	8	6	10
7	Atletico Bucaramanga	6	2	4	0	7	5	10
8	Aguilas Doradas	5	2	3	0	8	6	9
9	Deportivo Cali	6	2	2	2	8	6	8
10	Cucuta Deportivo	6	2	2	2	5	9	8
11	Internacional de Bogota	7	1	4	2	6	8	7
12	Once Caldas	5	1	3	1	9	6	6
13	Independiente Santa Fe	5	1	3	1	6	5	6
14	Fortaleza CEIF	6	1	3	2	5	6	6
15	Jaguares de Cordoba	6	1	2	3	4	9	5
16	Deportivo Pereira	3	0	2	1	0	1	2
17	Junior	5	0	2	3	5	9	2
18	Alianza	6	0	2	4	5	12	2
19	Boyaca Chico	5	0	2	3	2	12	2
20	Deportivo Pasto	6	0	1	5	4	11	1

Common opponents 5 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Boyaca Chico	Once Caldas
Aguilas Doradas	2-2 D	2-2 D
Jaguares de Cordoba	0-1 L	1-1 D
Independiente Santa Fe	0-2 L	2-2 D
America de Cali	0-7 L	0-1 L
Internacional de Bogota	0-4 L	2-1 W
Record vs common	0 W 1 D 4 L	1 W 3 D 1 L

Better against common opponents: Once Caldas (4 of 5 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Boyaca Chico

LWLLWLLLDD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
30/08	Aguilas Doradas Colombia Primera A	2-0	2-2	2	1	D
26/08	Fortaleza CEIF Colombia Primera A	0-0	0-0	3	4	D
21/08	Jaguares de Cordoba Colombia Primera A	0-1	0-1	11	10	L
08/08	Independiente Santa Fe Colombia Primera A	0-0	0-2	0	2	L
03/08	America de Cali Colombia Primera A	0-3	0-7	2	3	L
02/05	Llaneros Colombia Primera A	1-0	3-0	6	3	W
27/04	Internacional de Bogota Colombia Primera A	0-3	0-4	8	5	L
23/04	Independiente Medellin Colombia Primera A	0-2	0-2	3	5	L
17/04	Deportivo Cali Colombia Primera A	0-0	1-0	5	5	W
13/04	Atletico Bucaramanga Colombia Primera A	0-2	0-5	6	7	L

Once Caldas

WDWLDWDLDD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
24/08	Junior Colombia Primera A	0-0	1-1	3	11	D
10/08	Jaguares de Cordoba Colombia Primera A	0-0	1-1	5	8	D
06/08	America de Cali Colombia Primera A	0-0	0-1	3	7	L
03/08	Independiente Santa Fe Colombia Primera A	0-1	2-2	4	3	D
27/07	Cucuta Deportivo Colombia Primera A	3-1	5-1	7	3	W
14/05	Junior Colombia Primera A	1-1	2-2	11	12	D
11/05	Junior Colombia Primera A	0-1	0-1	4	7	L
02/05	Atletico Nacional Medellin Colombia Primera A	0-0	1-0	9	5	W
26/04	Aguilas Doradas Colombia Primera A	1-0	2-2	0	9	D
21/04	Internacional de Bogota Colombia Primera A	1-0	2-1	6	7	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Boyaca Chico vs Once Caldas?

According to our model, the most likely result is an Once Caldas win (47%). Probabilities: Boyaca Chico 25%, draw 28%, Once Caldas 47%.

How many goals are expected in Boyaca Chico vs Once Caldas?

The model expects 2.73 goals (Boyaca Chico 1.11 · Once Caldas 1.62), with a 54% chance of over 2.25 goals.

Will both teams score in Boyaca Chico vs Once Caldas?

The model gives a 54% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.