Football · Colombia Primera A · 01/09, 03:05

Prediction: Deportes Tolima vs Cucuta Deportivo

Team pages: Deportes Tolima · Cucuta Deportivo

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.58Total

Deportes Tolima1.92

Cucuta Deportivo0.66

1X2

67% 22% 11%

Deportes Tolima Draw Cucuta Deportivo

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 52% Not both to score 51%

Most likely score

2-0 14%

Recent form · 10 last

Deportes Tolima 5-2-3 (W-D-L)

DWWLLWWLWD

Cucuta Deportivo 3-3-4 (W-D-L)

WLDLLDLDWW

Head-to-head

Deportes Tolima 3–1–2 Cucuta Deportivo (6 last)

Cucuta Deportivo3-2Deportes Tolima
Cucuta Deportivo0-3Deportes Tolima
Cucuta Deportivo0-3Deportes Tolima
Deportes Tolima0-1Cucuta Deportivo
Cucuta Deportivo0-0Deportes Tolima
Deportes Tolima2-1Cucuta Deportivo

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Deportes Tolima 1502 · Cucuta Deportivo 1488

	Deportes Tolima	Draw	Cucuta Deportivo
Our model	66%	23%	11%
Market	67%	21%	12%

Estimated total (ours) 2.58 goals · Bet365 line 2.75 · -0.2

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 54%model estimate

Match keys

H2H favours Deportes Tolima: 3-1-2.
Cards-heavy: 9.8 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Deportes Tolima	Cucuta Deportivo
Goals for / against (FT)	1.3 / 1.1	0.8 / 1.7
Goals for / against (HT)	0.7 / 0.3	0.5 / 0.9
Half-time result (W/D/L)	50/40/10%	20/50/30%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.5 / 5.1	1.3 / 3.6
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.1 / 0.5	5.7 / 0.3

Odds Bet365

11.40

X4.50

28.00

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-1.25)1.90

2 (+1.25)1.90

Line ⓘ

Over 2.752.00

Under 2.751.80

Diff.: 0.3 · xG: 2.45

Market movement

Match winner · 2 moves · last 03:56

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.38 → 1.40▲	Bet365 1.40
X	4.20 → 4.50▲	Bet365 4.50
2	8.00 → 8.00	Bet365 8.00

See the full journey (2)

Bet365 margin 6.2%

Time*	1	X	2
16:42 +13’	1.38	4.20	8.00
03:53 +3’	1.40▲	4.50▲	8.00

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Deportes Tolima 3–1–2 Cucuta Deportivo

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Date	Home	Score	Away
23/02/26 Colombia Primera A	Cucuta Deportivo	3-2 HT 1-2	Deportes Tolima
19/11/20 Colombia Cup	Cucuta Deportivo	0-3	Deportes Tolima
11/10/20 Colombia Primera A	Cucuta Deportivo	0-3 HT 0-0	Deportes Tolima
20/11/19 Colombia Primera A	Deportes Tolima	0-1 HT 0-0	Cucuta Deportivo
18/11/19 Colombia Primera A	Cucuta Deportivo	0-0 HT 0-0	Deportes Tolima
20/10/19 Colombia Primera A	Deportes Tolima	2-1 HT 1-1	Cucuta Deportivo

Standings · Colombia Primera A · Finalizacion

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	America de Cali	7	5	2	0	17	4	17
2	Atletico Nacional Medellin	5	4	0	1	12	4	12
3	Llaneros	6	3	2	1	7	5	11
4	Millonarios	5	3	1	1	6	2	10
5	Deportes Tolima	5	3	1	1	8	6	10
6	Independiente Medellin	4	3	0	1	7	5	9
7	Atletico Bucaramanga	5	2	3	0	6	4	9
8	Aguilas Doradas	4	2	2	0	6	4	8
9	Cucuta Deportivo	6	2	2	2	5	9	8
10	Deportivo Cali	5	2	1	2	7	5	7
11	Once Caldas	5	1	3	1	9	6	6
12	Independiente Santa Fe	5	1	3	1	6	5	6
13	Fortaleza CEIF	6	1	3	2	5	6	6
14	Internacional de Bogota	6	1	3	2	6	8	6
15	Jaguares de Cordoba	6	1	2	3	4	9	5
16	Deportivo Pereira	3	0	2	1	0	1	2
17	Junior	5	0	2	3	5	9	2
18	Alianza	6	0	2	4	5	12	2
19	Deportivo Pasto	6	0	1	5	4	11	1
20	Boyaca Chico	4	0	1	3	0	10	1

Common opponents 5 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Deportes Tolima	Cucuta Deportivo
Atletico Bucaramanga	0-0 D	1-1 D
Internacional de Bogota	2-1 W	1-1 D
Independiente Medellin	2-3 L	1-0 W
Alianza	2-1 W	1-0 W
Junior	2-1 W	1-1 D
Record vs common	3 W 1 D 1 L	2 W 3 D 0 L

Better against common opponents: Deportes Tolima (2 of 5 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Deportes Tolima

DWWLLWWLWD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
22/08	Atletico Bucaramanga Colombia Primera A	0-0	0-0	6	7	D
09/08	Internacional de Bogota Colombia Primera A	1-0	2-1	8	3	W
05/08	Independiente Medellin Colombia Primera A	0-2	2-3	9	5	L
01/08	Alianza Colombia Primera A	1-1	2-1	2	5	W
26/07	Junior Colombia Primera A	2-0	2-1	1	3	W
24/05	Atletico Nacional Medellin Colombia Primera A	0-0	1-3	4	3	L
17/05	Atletico Nacional Medellin Colombia Primera A	0-0	0-1	8	6	L
14/05	Deportivo Pasto Colombia Primera A	1-0	2-0	2	3	W
10/05	Deportivo Pasto Colombia Primera A	1-0	1-0	6	3	W
03/05	Deportivo Cali Colombia Primera A	1-0	1-1	5	8	D

Cucuta Deportivo

WLDLLDLDWW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
26/08	Alianza Colombia Primera A	0-0	1-0	3	11	W
23/08	Independiente Medellin Colombia Primera A	1-0	1-0	1	2	W
20/08	Internacional de Bogota Colombia Primera A	0-0	1-1	3	10	D
08/08	Fortaleza CEIF Colombia Primera A	0-1	0-2	2	4	L
04/08	Atletico Bucaramanga Colombia Primera A	1-1	1-1	1	11	D
27/07	Once Caldas Colombia Primera A	1-3	1-5	10	3	L
02/05	Jaguares de Cordoba Colombia Primera A	0-0	0-2	4	6	L
24/04	Junior Colombia Primera A	1-1	1-1	1	3	D
19/04	Independiente Santa Fe Colombia Primera A	0-3	0-5	6	2	L
05/04	America de Cali Colombia Primera A	1-0	2-0	5	8	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Deportes Tolima vs Cucuta Deportivo?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Deportes Tolima win (67%). Probabilities: Deportes Tolima 67%, draw 22%, Cucuta Deportivo 11%.

How many goals are expected in Deportes Tolima vs Cucuta Deportivo?

The model expects 2.58 goals (Deportes Tolima 1.92 · Cucuta Deportivo 0.66), with a 56% chance of under 2.75 goals.

Will both teams score in Deportes Tolima vs Cucuta Deportivo?

The model gives a 51% chance that not both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 2-0.