Football · Colombia Primera A · 04/09, 01:00

Prediction: America de Cali vs Alianza

Team pages: America de Cali · Alianza

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.01Total

America de Cali2.19

Alianza0.82

1X2

67% 22% 11%

America de Cali Draw Alianza

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 52% Both teams to score 52%

Most likely score

2-0 12%

Recent form · 10 last

America de Cali 6-3-1 (W-D-L)

WDLWWWWDWD

Alianza 0-4-6 (W-D-L)

LLDDDLLDLL

Head-to-head

America de Cali 4–2 Alianza (6 last)

Alianza0-3America de Cali
Alianza1-0America de Cali
America de Cali3-0Alianza
Alianza0-1America de Cali
America de Cali2-0Alianza
Alianza2-1America de Cali

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · America de Cali 1612 · Alianza 1429

	America de Cali	Draw	Alianza
Our model	68%	20%	12%
Market	67%	22%	11%

Estimated total (ours) 3.01 goals · Bet365 line 2.5 · +0.5

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 60%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours America de Cali (rating 1612 vs 1429).
H2H favours America de Cali: 4-0-2.
Cards-heavy: 10.4 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	America de Cali	Alianza
Goals for / against (FT)	1.9 / 0.9	0.8 / 1.7
Goals for / against (HT)	0.6 / 0.6	0.5 / 0.8
Half-time result (W/D/L)	20/50/30%	20/40/40%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.1 / 4.9	1.6 / 3.8
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.8 / 0.3	5.6 / 0.1

Odds Bet365

11.38

X4.10

28.50

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-1.25)1.93

2 (+1.25)1.88

Line ⓘ

Over 2.52.00

Under 2.51.80

Diff.: 0.15 · xG: 2.65

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 03:11

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.38 → 1.38	Bet365 1.38
X	4.10 → 4.10	Bet365 4.10
2	8.50 → 8.50	Bet365 8.50

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 8.6%

Time*	1	X	2
03:07 +4’	1.38	4.10	8.50

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · America de Cali 4–0–2 Alianza

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Date	Home	Score	Away
28/02/26 Colombia Primera A	Alianza	0-3 HT 0-2	America de Cali
31/08/25 Colombia Primera A	Alianza	1-0 HT 0-0	America de Cali
16/03/25 Colombia Primera A	America de Cali	3-0 HT 0-0	Alianza
23/09/24 Colombia Primera A	Alianza	0-1 HT 0-0	America de Cali
10/03/24 Colombia Primera A	America de Cali	2-0 HT 0-0	Alianza
07/03/24 Copa Sudamericana	Alianza	2-1 HT 1-0	America de Cali

Standings · Colombia Primera A · Finalizacion

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	America de Cali	7	5	2	0	17	4	17
2	Atletico Nacional Medellin	5	4	0	1	12	4	12
3	Independiente Medellin	5	4	0	1	9	6	12
4	Millonarios	6	3	2	1	6	2	11
5	Llaneros	7	3	2	2	8	7	11
6	Deportes Tolima	5	3	1	1	8	6	10
7	Atletico Bucaramanga	6	2	4	0	7	5	10
8	Aguilas Doradas	5	2	3	0	8	6	9
9	Deportivo Cali	6	2	2	2	8	6	8
10	Cucuta Deportivo	6	2	2	2	5	9	8
11	Internacional de Bogota	7	1	4	2	6	8	7
12	Once Caldas	5	1	3	1	9	6	6
13	Independiente Santa Fe	5	1	3	1	6	5	6
14	Fortaleza CEIF	6	1	3	2	5	6	6
15	Jaguares de Cordoba	6	1	2	3	4	9	5
16	Deportivo Pereira	3	0	2	1	0	1	2
17	Junior	5	0	2	3	5	9	2
18	Alianza	6	0	2	4	5	12	2
19	Boyaca Chico	5	0	2	3	2	12	2
20	Deportivo Pasto	6	0	1	5	4	11	1

Common opponents 3 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	America de Cali	Alianza
Atletico Nacional Medellin	1-0 W	1-5 L
Internacional de Bogota	2-0 W	1-2 L
Deportivo Pereira	1-0 W	0-0 D
Record vs common	3 W 0 D 0 L	0 W 1 D 2 L

Better against common opponents: America de Cali (3 of 3 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

America de Cali

WDLWWWWDWD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
29/08	Jaguares de Cordoba Colombia Primera A	1-2	2-2	13	7	D
27/08	Junior Colombia Primera A	1-1	4-2	4	8	W
23/08	Independiente Santa Fe Colombia Primera A	0-0	0-0	3	4	D
10/08	Atletico Nacional Medellin Colombia Primera A	0-0	1-0	2	7	W
06/08	Once Caldas Colombia Primera A	0-0	1-0	5	7	W
03/08	Boyaca Chico Colombia Primera A	3-0	7-0	9	3	W
26/07	Internacional de Bogota Colombia Primera A	0-0	2-0	1	5	W
13/05	Independiente Santa Fe Colombia Primera A	0-2	0-4	2	5	L
10/05	Independiente Santa Fe Colombia Primera A	0-1	1-1	3	2	D
04/05	Deportivo Pereira Colombia Primera A	1-0	1-0	7	3	W

Alianza

LLDDDLLDLL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
30/08	Atletico Nacional Medellin Colombia Primera A	1-3	1-5	2	5	L
26/08	Cucuta Deportivo Colombia Primera A	0-0	0-1	5	11	L
22/08	Deportivo Pereira Colombia Primera A	0-0	0-0	4	5	D
09/08	Atletico Bucaramanga Colombia Primera A	1-2	2-3	3	6	L
01/08	Deportes Tolima Colombia Primera A	1-1	1-2	2	5	L
27/07	Fortaleza CEIF Colombia Primera A	0-1	1-1	5	4	D
03/05	Millonarios Colombia Primera A	1-0	2-2	3	8	D
27/04	Llaneros Colombia Primera A	0-0	0-0	2	5	D
19/04	Independiente Medellin Colombia Primera A	0-1	0-1	6	8	L
13/04	Internacional de Bogota Colombia Primera A	1-0	1-2	6	0	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in America de Cali vs Alianza?

According to our model, the most likely result is a America de Cali win (67%). Probabilities: America de Cali 67%, draw 22%, Alianza 11%.

How many goals are expected in America de Cali vs Alianza?

The model expects 3.01 goals (America de Cali 2.19 · Alianza 0.82), with a 52% chance of over 2.5 goals.

Will both teams score in America de Cali vs Alianza?

The model gives a 52% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 2-0.