Football · Colombia Primera A · 04/09, 03:00

Prediction: Deportivo Pereira vs Independiente Medellin

Team pages: Deportivo Pereira · Independiente Medellin

Prediction summary

Expected goals

1.95Total

Deportivo Pereira0.93

Independiente Medellin1.02

1X2

31% 34% 35%

Deportivo Pereira Draw Independiente Medellin

Markets

Over 1.5 goals 59% Not both to score 52%

Most likely score

0-0 16%

Recent form · 10 last

Deportivo Pereira 1-3-6 (W-D-L)

LLLDLWLLDD

Independiente Medellin 7-0-3 (W-D-L)

LWWWLWWWLW

Head-to-head

Deportivo Pereira 0–2–4 Independiente Medellin (6 last)

Independiente Medellin1-1Deportivo Pereira
Deportivo Pereira1-4Independiente Medellin
Independiente Medellin2-0Deportivo Pereira
Deportivo Pereira1-1Independiente Medellin
Independiente Medellin1-0Deportivo Pereira
Independiente Medellin1-0Deportivo Pereira

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 60%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Independiente Medellin (rating 1471 vs 1540).
H2H favours Independiente Medellin: 4-2-0.
Cards-heavy: 9.6 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Deportivo Pereira	Independiente Medellin
Goals for / against (FT)	0.3 / 0.9	1.6 / 1.1
Goals for / against (HT)	0.1 / 0.5	1.1 / 0.7
Half-time result (W/D/L)	10/50/40%	40/40/20%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.4 / 2.6	2.1 / 4.3
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.6 / 0.3	5 / 0.3

Odds Bet365

Line ⓘ

Over 2.251.83

Under 2.251.95

Diff.: 0.3 · xG: 1.95

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 02:15

	Pinnacle	Best now
1	4.58 → 4.58	Pinn 4.58
X	3.42 → 3.42	Pinn 3.42
2	1.79 → 1.79	Pinn 1.79

See the full journey (1)

Pinnacle margin 6.8%

Time*	1	X	2
02:15	4.58	3.42	1.79

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Deportivo Pereira 0–2–4 Independiente Medellin

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Date	Home	Score	Away
15/02/26 Colombia Primera A	Independiente Medellin	1-1 HT 0-1	Deportivo Pereira
08/11/25 Colombia Primera A	Deportivo Pereira	1-4 HT 0-1	Independiente Medellin
20/05/25 Colombia Primera A	Independiente Medellin	2-0 HT 0-0	Deportivo Pereira
23/07/24 Colombia Primera A	Deportivo Pereira	1-1 HT 1-1	Independiente Medellin
28/01/24 Colombia Primera A	Independiente Medellin	1-0 HT 0-0	Deportivo Pereira
23/10/23 Colombia Primera A	Independiente Medellin	1-0 HT 1-0	Deportivo Pereira

Standings · Colombia Primera A · Finalizacion

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	America de Cali	7	5	2	0	17	4	17
2	Atletico Nacional Medellin	5	4	0	1	12	4	12
3	Independiente Medellin	5	4	0	1	9	6	12
4	Millonarios	6	3	2	1	6	2	11
5	Llaneros	7	3	2	2	8	7	11
6	Deportes Tolima	5	3	1	1	8	6	10
7	Atletico Bucaramanga	6	2	4	0	7	5	10
8	Aguilas Doradas	5	2	3	0	8	6	9
9	Deportivo Cali	6	2	2	2	8	6	8
10	Cucuta Deportivo	6	2	2	2	5	9	8
11	Internacional de Bogota	7	1	4	2	6	8	7
12	Once Caldas	5	1	3	1	9	6	6
13	Independiente Santa Fe	5	1	3	1	6	5	6
14	Fortaleza CEIF	6	1	3	2	5	6	6
15	Jaguares de Cordoba	6	1	2	3	4	9	5
16	Deportivo Pereira	3	0	2	1	0	1	2
17	Junior	5	0	2	3	5	9	2
18	Alianza	6	0	2	4	5	12	2
19	Boyaca Chico	5	0	2	3	2	12	2
20	Deportivo Pasto	6	0	1	5	4	11	1

Common opponents 7 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Deportivo Pereira	Independiente Medellin
Alianza	0-0 D	1-0 W
Fortaleza CEIF	0-0 D	1-0 W
Llaneros	0-1 L	2-1 W
Atletico Nacional Medellin	1-0 W	2-3 L
Deportes Tolima	0-2 L	3-2 W
Boyaca Chico	0-1 L	2-0 W
Deportivo Cali	0-1 L	1-0 W
Record vs common	1 W 2 D 4 L	6 W 0 D 1 L

Better against common opponents: Independiente Medellin (6 of 7 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Deportivo Pereira

LLLDLWLLDD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
22/08	Alianza Colombia Primera A	0-0	0-0	3	5	D
01/08	Fortaleza CEIF Colombia Primera A	0-0	0-0	0	4	D
25/07	Llaneros Colombia Primera A	0-0	0-1	3	7	L
04/05	America de Cali Colombia Primera A	0-1	0-1	1	3	L
25/04	Atletico Nacional Medellin Colombia Primera A	1-0	1-0	5	7	W
19/04	Deportes Tolima Colombia Primera A	0-1	0-2	3	0	L
10/04	Once Caldas Colombia Primera A	0-0	0-0	5	6	D
06/04	Alianza Colombia Primera A	0-2	2-3	5	5	L
02/04	Boyaca Chico Colombia Primera A	0-0	0-1	0	9	L
29/03	Deportivo Cali Colombia Primera A	0-1	0-1	1	3	L

Independiente Medellin

LWWWLWWWLW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
30/08	Llaneros Colombia Primera A	2-1	2-1	2	8	W
23/08	Cucuta Deportivo Colombia Primera A	0-1	0-1	6	2	L
05/08	Deportes Tolima Colombia Primera A	2-0	3-2	2	5	W
02/08	Deportivo Cali Colombia Primera A	0-0	1-0	3	4	W
25/07	Deportivo Pasto Colombia Primera A	2-2	3-2	4	7	W
03/05	Aguilas Doradas Colombia Primera A	0-1	1-2	10	8	L
26/04	Fortaleza CEIF Colombia Primera A	0-0	1-0	6	3	W
23/04	Boyaca Chico Colombia Primera A	2-0	2-0	3	5	W
19/04	Alianza Colombia Primera A	1-0	1-0	4	8	W
12/04	Atletico Nacional Medellin Colombia Primera A	2-2	2-3	3	3	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Deportivo Pereira vs Independiente Medellin?

According to our model, the most likely result is an Independiente Medellin win (35%). Probabilities: Deportivo Pereira 31%, draw 34%, Independiente Medellin 35%.

How many goals are expected in Deportivo Pereira vs Independiente Medellin?

The model expects 1.95 goals (Deportivo Pereira 0.93 · Independiente Medellin 1.02), with a 55% chance of under 2.25 goals.

Will both teams score in Deportivo Pereira vs Independiente Medellin?

The model gives a 52% chance that not both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 0-0.