Football · Colombia Primera A · 03/09, 03:25
Prediction: Independiente Santa Fe vs Millonarios
Team pages: Independiente Santa Fe · Millonarios
Prediction summary
Expected goals
2.16Total
Independiente Santa Fe1.43
Millonarios0.73
1X2
Independiente Santa Fe
Draw
Millonarios
Markets
Under 2.5 goals 63%
Not both to score 52%
Most likely score
1-0 15%
Recent form · 10 last
Independiente Santa Fe
3-6-1 (W-D-L)
Millonarios
4-3-3 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Independiente Santa Fe
1–2–3
Millonarios
(6 last)
- Millonarios1-1Independiente Santa Fe
- Independiente Santa Fe0-1Millonarios
- Millonarios0-0Independiente Santa Fe
- Millonarios1-2Independiente Santa Fe
- Independiente Santa Fe0-1Millonarios
- Millonarios2-0Independiente Santa Fe
Model analysis
1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 71%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Independiente Santa Fe (rating 1568 vs 1519).
- H2H favours Millonarios: 3-2-1.
- Cards-heavy: 10 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Independiente Santa Fe | Millonarios | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1.5 / 0.8 | 1.2 / 0.9 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.4 / 0.1 | 0.3 / 0.3 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 30/60/10% | 30/50/20% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 1.2 / 3.7 | 3.5 / 6.2 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 3.8 / 0 | 6.2 / 0.2 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Independiente Santa Fe 1–2–3 Millonarios
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 12/04/26 Colombia Primera A | Millonarios | 1-1 HT 0-0 | Independiente Santa Fe |
| 26/10/25 Colombia Primera A | Independiente Santa Fe | 0-1 HT 0-0 | Millonarios |
| 07/09/25 Colombia Primera A | Millonarios | 0-0 HT 0-0 | Independiente Santa Fe |
| 20/06/25 Colombia Primera A | Millonarios | 1-2 HT 0-2 | Independiente Santa Fe |
| 01/06/25 Colombia Primera A | Independiente Santa Fe | 0-1 HT 0-1 | Millonarios |
| 27/03/25 Colombia Primera A | Millonarios | 2-0 HT 0-0 | Independiente Santa Fe |
Standings · Colombia Primera A · Finalizacion
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | America de Cali | 7 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 17 | 4 | 17 |
| 2 | Atletico Nacional Medellin | 5 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 12 | 4 | 12 |
| 3 | Llaneros | 6 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 7 | 5 | 11 |
| 4 | Millonarios | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 6 | 2 | 10 |
| 5 | Deportes Tolima | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 8 | 6 | 10 |
| 6 | Independiente Medellin | 4 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 7 | 5 | 9 |
| 7 | Atletico Bucaramanga | 5 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 6 | 4 | 9 |
| 8 | Aguilas Doradas | 4 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 6 | 4 | 8 |
| 9 | Cucuta Deportivo | 6 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 5 | 9 | 8 |
| 10 | Deportivo Cali | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 7 | 5 | 7 |
| 11 | Once Caldas | 5 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 9 | 6 | 6 |
| 12 | Independiente Santa Fe | 5 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 6 | 5 | 6 |
| 13 | Fortaleza CEIF | 6 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 5 | 6 | 6 |
| 14 | Internacional de Bogota | 6 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 6 | 8 | 6 |
| 15 | Jaguares de Cordoba | 6 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 9 | 5 |
| 16 | Deportivo Pereira | 3 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 |
| 17 | Junior | 5 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 5 | 9 | 2 |
| 18 | Alianza | 6 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 5 | 12 | 2 |
| 19 | Deportivo Pasto | 6 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 4 | 11 | 1 |
| 20 | Boyaca Chico | 4 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 10 | 1 |
Common opponents 3 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Independiente Santa Fe | Millonarios |
|---|---|---|
| Junior | 1-1 D | 1-0 W |
| America de Cali | 0-0 D | 1-3 L |
| Aguilas Doradas | 1-2 L | 1-1 D |
| Record vs common | 0 W 2 D 1 L | 1 W 1 D 1 L |
Better against common opponents: Millonarios (2 of 3 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Independiente Santa Fe
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30/08 | Junior Colombia Primera A |
0-0 | 1-1 | 5 | 4 | D |
| 23/08 | America de Cali Colombia Primera A |
0-0 | 0-0 | 9 | 4 | D |
| 08/08 | Boyaca Chico Colombia Primera A |
0-0 | 2-0 | 2 | 2 | W |
| 03/08 | Once Caldas Colombia Primera A |
1-0 | 2-2 | 3 | 3 | D |
| 26/07 | Aguilas Doradas Colombia Primera A |
0-0 | 1-2 | 1 | 5 | L |
| 24/05 | Junior Colombia Primera A |
0-0 | 0-0 | 3 | 5 | D |
| 17/05 | Junior Colombia Primera A |
0-1 | 1-1 | 6 | 4 | D |
| 13/05 | America de Cali Colombia Primera A |
2-0 | 4-0 | 2 | 5 | W |
| 10/05 | America de Cali Colombia Primera A |
1-0 | 1-1 | 2 | 2 | D |
| 03/05 | Internacional de Bogota Colombia Primera A |
0-0 | 3-1 | 4 | 4 | W |
Millonarios
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 28/08 | Llaneros Colombia Primera A |
1-0 | 2-0 | 5 | 7 | W |
| 22/08 | Aguilas Doradas Colombia Primera A |
0-0 | 1-1 | 3 | 10 | D |
| 05/08 | Deportivo Pasto Colombia Primera A |
1-0 | 2-0 | 8 | 7 | W |
| 02/08 | Junior Colombia Primera A |
0-0 | 1-0 | 7 | 6 | W |
| 26/07 | Atletico Bucaramanga Colombia Primera A |
0-0 | 0-1 | 8 | 3 | L |
| 03/05 | Alianza Colombia Primera A |
0-1 | 2-2 | 8 | 8 | D |
| 24/04 | Deportes Tolima Colombia Primera A |
1-0 | 2-0 | 6 | 7 | W |
| 20/04 | America de Cali Colombia Primera A |
0-2 | 1-3 | 2 | 5 | L |
| 12/04 | Independiente Santa Fe Colombia Primera A |
0-0 | 1-1 | 10 | 7 | D |
| 03/04 | Jaguares de Cordoba Colombia Primera A |
0-0 | 0-1 | 5 | 4 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Independiente Santa Fe vs Millonarios?
According to our model, the most likely result is a Independiente Santa Fe win (52%). Probabilities: Independiente Santa Fe 52%, draw 30%, Millonarios 18%.
How many goals are expected in Independiente Santa Fe vs Millonarios?
The model expects 2.16 goals (Independiente Santa Fe 1.43 · Millonarios 0.73), with a 52% chance of under 2.25 goals.
Will both teams score in Independiente Santa Fe vs Millonarios?
The model gives a 52% chance that not both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-0.