Football · Colombia Primera A · 27/08, 03:30
Prediction: Atletico Nacional Medellin vs Deportivo Cali
Team pages: Atletico Nacional Medellin · Deportivo Cali
Prediction summary
Expected goals
2.29Total
Atletico Nacional Medellin1.6
Deportivo Cali0.69
1X2
Atletico Nacional Medellin
Draw
Deportivo Cali
Markets
Under 2.5 goals 56%
Not both to score 52%
Most likely score
1-0
Recent form · 10 last
Atletico Nacional Medellin
6-0-4 (W-D-L)
Deportivo Cali
5-2-3 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Atletico Nacional Medellin
1–2–3
Deportivo Cali
(6 last)
- Deportivo Cali1-0Atletico Nacional Medellin
- Atletico Nacional Medellin2-1Deportivo Cali
- Deportivo Cali1-0Atletico Nacional Medellin
- Atletico Nacional Medellin1-1Deportivo Cali
- Deportivo Cali3-2Atletico Nacional Medellin
- Deportivo Cali1-1Atletico Nacional Medellin
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Atletico Nacional Medellin 1552 · Deportivo Cali 1586
| Atletico Nacional Medellin | Draw | Deportivo Cali | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 58% | 27% | 15% |
| Market | 59% | 25% | 16% |
Estimated total (ours)
2.29 goals · Bet365 line 2.5 · -0.2
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 62%model estimate
Match keys
- H2H favours Deportivo Cali: 3-2-1.
- High corners: 10.7 combined avg.
- Cards-heavy: 10.2 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Atletico Nacional Medellin | Deportivo Cali | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1.7 / 0.9 | 1 / 0.6 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.6 / 0.5 | 0.3 / 0.2 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 20/60/20% | 30/50/20% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 3 / 6.1 | 2.6 / 4.6 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 4.6 / 0.6 | 5.6 / 0.2 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Atletico Nacional Medellin 1–2–3 Deportivo Cali
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 16/02/26 Colombia Primera A | Deportivo Cali | 1-0 HT 0-0 | Atletico Nacional Medellin |
| 15/10/25 Colombia Primera A | Atletico Nacional Medellin | 2-1 HT 1-1 | Deportivo Cali |
| 21/04/25 Colombia Primera A | Deportivo Cali | 1-0 HT 1-0 | Atletico Nacional Medellin |
| 10/10/24 Colombia Primera A | Atletico Nacional Medellin | 1-1 HT 0-0 | Deportivo Cali |
| 17/02/24 Colombia Primera A | Deportivo Cali | 3-2 HT 2-1 | Atletico Nacional Medellin |
| 07/08/23 Colombia Primera A | Deportivo Cali | 1-1 HT 1-0 | Atletico Nacional Medellin |
Standings · Colombia Primera A · Finalizacion
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | America de Cali | 5 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 11 | 0 | 13 |
| 2 | Deportes Tolima | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 8 | 6 | 10 |
| 3 | Independiente Medellin | 4 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 7 | 5 | 9 |
| 4 | Atletico Bucaramanga | 5 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 6 | 4 | 9 |
| 5 | Llaneros | 4 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 6 | 3 | 8 |
| 6 | Aguilas Doradas | 4 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 6 | 4 | 8 |
| 7 | Millonarios | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 2 | 7 |
| 8 | Deportivo Cali | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 6 |
| 9 | Once Caldas | 4 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 8 | 5 | 5 |
| 10 | Independiente Santa Fe | 4 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 5 | 4 | 5 |
| 11 | Fortaleza CEIF | 4 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 4 | 5 |
| 12 | Cucuta Deportivo | 5 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 9 | 5 |
| 13 | Internacional de Bogota | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 5 | 4 |
| 14 | Jaguares de Cordoba | 5 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 7 | 4 |
| 15 | Atletico Nacional Medellin | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 3 |
| 16 | Deportivo Pereira | 3 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 |
| 17 | Alianza | 4 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 6 | 2 |
| 18 | Junior | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 0 |
| 19 | Deportivo Pasto | 4 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 3 | 9 | 0 |
| 20 | Boyaca Chico | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 10 | 0 |
Common opponents 5 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Atletico Nacional Medellin | Deportivo Cali |
|---|---|---|
| America de Cali | 0-1 L | 1-0 W |
| Jaguares de Cordoba | 3-0 W | 2-0 W |
| Junior | 1-0 W | 2-1 W |
| Deportes Tolima | 3-1 W | 1-1 D |
| Deportivo Pereira | 0-1 L | 1-0 W |
| Record vs common | 3 W 0 D 2 L | 4 W 1 D 0 L |
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Atletico Nacional Medellin
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10/08 | America de Cali Colombia Primera A |
0-0 | 0-1 | 13 | 7 | L |
| 02/08 | Jaguares de Cordoba Colombia Primera A |
3-0 | 3-0 | 4 | 3 | W |
| 09/06 | Junior Colombia Primera A |
0-0 | 1-0 | 13 | 6 | W |
| 03/06 | Junior Colombia Primera A |
0-2 | 0-3 | 3 | 8 | L |
| 24/05 | Deportes Tolima Colombia Primera A |
0-0 | 3-1 | 7 | 3 | W |
| 17/05 | Deportes Tolima Colombia Primera A |
0-0 | 1-0 | 2 | 6 | W |
| 13/05 | Internacional de Bogota Colombia Primera A |
2-1 | 7-1 | 9 | 1 | W |
| 09/05 | Internacional de Bogota Colombia Primera A |
1-1 | 2-1 | 3 | 6 | W |
| 02/05 | Once Caldas Colombia Primera A |
0-0 | 0-1 | 4 | 5 | L |
| 25/04 | Deportivo Pereira Colombia Primera A |
0-1 | 0-1 | 3 | 7 | L |
Deportivo Cali
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09/08 | Deportivo Pasto Colombia Primera A |
1-0 | 2-0 | 3 | 8 | W |
| 02/08 | Independiente Medellin Colombia Primera A |
0-0 | 0-1 | 2 | 4 | L |
| 25/07 | Jaguares de Cordoba Colombia Primera A |
0-0 | 2-0 | 6 | 7 | W |
| 03/05 | Deportes Tolima Colombia Primera A |
0-1 | 1-1 | 3 | 8 | D |
| 26/04 | America de Cali Colombia Primera A |
0-0 | 1-0 | 6 | 4 | W |
| 17/04 | Boyaca Chico Colombia Primera A |
0-0 | 0-1 | 5 | 5 | L |
| 12/04 | Llaneros Colombia Primera A |
0-0 | 1-1 | 6 | 8 | D |
| 04/04 | Junior Colombia Primera A |
1-0 | 2-1 | 4 | 8 | W |
| 29/03 | Deportivo Pereira Colombia Primera A |
1-0 | 1-0 | 5 | 3 | W |
| 22/03 | Alianza Colombia Primera A |
0-1 | 0-1 | 6 | 3 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Atletico Nacional Medellin vs Deportivo Cali?
According to our model, the most likely result is a Atletico Nacional Medellin win (59%). Probabilities: Atletico Nacional Medellin 59%, draw 26%, Deportivo Cali 15%.
How many goals are expected in Atletico Nacional Medellin vs Deportivo Cali?
The model expects 2.29 goals (Atletico Nacional Medellin 1.6 · Deportivo Cali 0.69), with a 56% chance of under 2.5 goals.
Will both teams score in Atletico Nacional Medellin vs Deportivo Cali?
The model gives a 52% chance that not both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-0.