Football · Colombia Primera A · 06/09, 01:10

Prediction: Cucuta Deportivo vs Deportivo Pasto

Team pages: Cucuta Deportivo · Deportivo Pasto

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.62Total

Cucuta Deportivo1.54

Deportivo Pasto1.08

1X2

46% 28% 25%

Cucuta Deportivo Draw Deportivo Pasto

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 51% Both teams to score 53%

Most likely score

1-1 13%

Recent form · 10 last

Cucuta Deportivo 2-3-5 (W-D-L)

LDLLDLDWWL

Deportivo Pasto 0-1-9 (W-D-L)

LLLLLLLLDL

Head-to-head

Cucuta Deportivo 0–1–5 Deportivo Pasto (6 last)

Deportivo Pasto3-2Cucuta Deportivo
Cucuta Deportivo0-0Deportivo Pasto
Deportivo Pasto2-1Cucuta Deportivo
Cucuta Deportivo1-3Deportivo Pasto
Cucuta Deportivo0-2Deportivo Pasto
Deportivo Pasto1-0Cucuta Deportivo

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Cucuta Deportivo 1458 · Deportivo Pasto 1421

	Cucuta Deportivo	Draw	Deportivo Pasto
Our model	47%	28%	26%
Market	46%	29%	25%

Estimated total (ours) 2.62 goals · Bet365 line 2.25 · +0.4

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 57%model estimate

Match keys

H2H favours Deportivo Pasto: 5-1-0.
Cards-heavy: 10.8 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Cucuta Deportivo	Deportivo Pasto
Goals for / against (FT)	0.7 / 1.9	0.8 / 2
Goals for / against (HT)	0.4 / 0.9	0.6 / 1
Half-time result (W/D/L)	10/60/30%	10/40/50%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.3 / 3.3	1.7 / 4.8
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	5.5 / 0.4	5.3 / 0.6

Odds Bet365

12.05

X3.30

23.75

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.5)2.02

2 (+0.5)1.77

Line ⓘ

Over 2.251.90

Under 2.251.90

Diff.: 0.45 · xG: 2.7

Market movement

Match winner · 3 moves · last 10:10

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.20 → 2.05▼	Bet365 2.05
X	3.10 → 3.30▲	Bet365 3.30
2	3.30 → 3.75▲	Bet365 3.75

See the full journey (3)

Bet365 margin 5.8%

Time*	1	X	2
20:48 +5’	2.20	3.10	3.30
03:36 +3’	2.20	3.20▲	3.40▲
09:21 +49’	2.05▼	3.30▲	3.75▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Cucuta Deportivo 0–1–5 Deportivo Pasto

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Date	Home	Score	Away
01/03/26 Colombia Primera A	Deportivo Pasto	3-2 HT 1-0	Cucuta Deportivo
17/02/20 Colombia Primera A	Cucuta Deportivo	0-0 HT 0-0	Deportivo Pasto
28/09/19 Colombia Primera A	Deportivo Pasto	2-1 HT 0-0	Cucuta Deportivo
04/04/19 Colombia Primera A	Cucuta Deportivo	1-3 HT 0-2	Deportivo Pasto
08/11/15 Colombia Primera A	Cucuta Deportivo	0-2 HT 0-2	Deportivo Pasto
10/05/15 Colombia Primera A	Deportivo Pasto	1-0 HT 0-0	Cucuta Deportivo

Standings · Colombia Primera A · Finalizacion

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	America de Cali	8	6	2	0	20	4	20
2	Independiente Medellin	6	5	0	1	12	6	15
3	Deportes Tolima	6	4	1	1	10	7	13
4	Atletico Nacional Medellin	5	4	0	1	12	4	12
5	Millonarios	7	3	2	2	8	5	11
6	Llaneros	7	3	2	2	8	7	11
7	Atletico Bucaramanga	6	2	4	0	7	5	10
8	Once Caldas	6	2	3	1	11	7	9
9	Independiente Santa Fe	6	2	3	1	9	7	9
10	Aguilas Doradas	5	2	3	0	8	6	9
11	Deportivo Cali	6	2	2	2	8	6	8
12	Cucuta Deportivo	7	2	2	3	6	11	8
13	Internacional de Bogota	7	1	4	2	6	8	7
14	Fortaleza CEIF	7	1	3	3	6	8	6
15	Deportivo Pereira	5	1	2	2	2	5	5
16	Jaguares de Cordoba	6	1	2	3	4	9	5
17	Junior	5	0	2	3	5	9	2
18	Alianza	7	0	2	5	5	15	2
19	Boyaca Chico	5	0	2	3	2	12	2
20	Deportivo Pasto	7	0	1	6	5	13	1

Common opponents 4 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Cucuta Deportivo	Deportivo Pasto
Deportes Tolima	1-2 L	0-2 L
Independiente Medellin	1-0 W	2-3 L
Internacional de Bogota	1-1 D	1-1 D
Junior	1-1 D	3-4 L
Record vs common	1 W 2 D 1 L	0 W 1 D 3 L

Better against common opponents: Cucuta Deportivo (3 of 4 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Cucuta Deportivo

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
01/09	Deportes Tolima Colombia Primera A	0-0	1-2	2	7	L
26/08	Alianza Colombia Primera A	0-0	1-0	3	11	W
23/08	Independiente Medellin Colombia Primera A	1-0	1-0	1	2	W
20/08	Internacional de Bogota Colombia Primera A	0-0	1-1	3	10	D
08/08	Fortaleza CEIF Colombia Primera A	0-1	0-2	2	4	L
04/08	Atletico Bucaramanga Colombia Primera A	1-1	1-1	1	11	D
27/07	Once Caldas Colombia Primera A	1-3	1-5	10	3	L
02/05	Jaguares de Cordoba Colombia Primera A	0-0	0-2	4	6	L
24/04	Junior Colombia Primera A	1-1	1-1	1	3	D
19/04	Independiente Santa Fe Colombia Primera A	0-3	0-5	6	2	L

Deportivo Pasto

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
01/09	Deportivo Pereira Colombia Primera A	1-2	1-2	8	6	L
28/08	Internacional de Bogota Colombia Primera A	1-1	1-1	2	3	D
23/08	Llaneros Colombia Primera A	0-0	0-1	5	11	L
09/08	Deportivo Cali Colombia Primera A	0-1	0-2	6	8	L
05/08	Millonarios Colombia Primera A	0-1	0-2	3	7	L
01/08	Aguilas Doradas Colombia Primera A	1-1	1-2	3	6	L
25/07	Independiente Medellin Colombia Primera A	2-2	2-3	4	7	L
14/05	Deportes Tolima Colombia Primera A	0-1	0-2	9	3	L
10/05	Deportes Tolima Colombia Primera A	0-1	0-1	6	3	L
04/05	Junior Colombia Primera A	1-0	3-4	2	5	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Cucuta Deportivo vs Deportivo Pasto?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Cucuta Deportivo win (46%). Probabilities: Cucuta Deportivo 46%, draw 28%, Deportivo Pasto 25%.

How many goals are expected in Cucuta Deportivo vs Deportivo Pasto?

The model expects 2.62 goals (Cucuta Deportivo 1.54 · Deportivo Pasto 1.08), with a 53% chance of over 2.25 goals.

Will both teams score in Cucuta Deportivo vs Deportivo Pasto?

The model gives a 53% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.