Football · Colombia Primera A · 05/09, 23:00
Prediction: Independiente Santa Fe vs Fortaleza CEIF
Team pages: Independiente Santa Fe · Fortaleza CEIF
Prediction summary
Expected goals
2.39Total
Independiente Santa Fe1.81
Fortaleza CEIF0.58
1X2
Independiente Santa Fe
Draw
Fortaleza CEIF
Markets
Under 2.5 goals 57%
Not both to score 53%
Most likely score
1-0 16%
Recent form · 10 last
Independiente Santa Fe
3-6-1 (W-D-L)
Fortaleza CEIF
2-3-5 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Independiente Santa Fe
4–1–1
Fortaleza CEIF
(6 last)
- Fortaleza CEIF1-1Independiente Santa Fe
- Fortaleza CEIF1-2Independiente Santa Fe
- Independiente Santa Fe3-0Fortaleza CEIF
- Fortaleza CEIF2-0Independiente Santa Fe
- Independiente Santa Fe2-0Fortaleza CEIF
- Fortaleza CEIF1-3Independiente Santa Fe
Model analysis
1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 62%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Independiente Santa Fe (rating 1579 vs 1449).
- H2H favours Independiente Santa Fe: 4-1-1.
- Cards-heavy: 8 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Independiente Santa Fe | Fortaleza CEIF | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1.5 / 0.8 | 0.9 / 1.2 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.4 / 0.1 | 0.6 / 0.4 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 30/60/10% | 40/40/20% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 1.2 / 3.7 | 1.8 / 3.9 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 3.8 / 0 | 4.2 / 0.2 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Independiente Santa Fe 4–1–1 Fortaleza CEIF
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 08/02/26 Colombia Primera A | Fortaleza CEIF | 1-1 HT 0-0 | Independiente Santa Fe |
| 04/12/25 Colombia Primera A | Fortaleza CEIF | 1-2 HT 1-2 | Independiente Santa Fe |
| 22/11/25 Colombia Primera A | Independiente Santa Fe | 3-0 HT 0-0 | Fortaleza CEIF |
| 24/08/25 Colombia Primera A | Fortaleza CEIF | 2-0 HT 0-0 | Independiente Santa Fe |
| 09/03/25 Colombia Primera A | Independiente Santa Fe | 2-0 HT 1-0 | Fortaleza CEIF |
| 22/09/24 Colombia Primera A | Fortaleza CEIF | 1-3 HT 0-1 | Independiente Santa Fe |
Standings · Colombia Primera A · Finalizacion
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | America de Cali | 7 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 17 | 4 | 17 |
| 2 | Deportes Tolima | 6 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 10 | 7 | 13 |
| 3 | Atletico Nacional Medellin | 5 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 12 | 4 | 12 |
| 4 | Independiente Medellin | 5 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 9 | 6 | 12 |
| 5 | Millonarios | 6 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 6 | 2 | 11 |
| 6 | Llaneros | 7 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 8 | 7 | 11 |
| 7 | Atletico Bucaramanga | 6 | 2 | 4 | 0 | 7 | 5 | 10 |
| 8 | Once Caldas | 6 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 11 | 7 | 9 |
| 9 | Aguilas Doradas | 5 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 8 | 6 | 9 |
| 10 | Deportivo Cali | 6 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 8 | 6 | 8 |
| 11 | Cucuta Deportivo | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 6 | 11 | 8 |
| 12 | Internacional de Bogota | 7 | 1 | 4 | 2 | 6 | 8 | 7 |
| 13 | Independiente Santa Fe | 5 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 6 | 5 | 6 |
| 14 | Fortaleza CEIF | 7 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 6 | 8 | 6 |
| 15 | Deportivo Pereira | 4 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 5 |
| 16 | Jaguares de Cordoba | 6 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 9 | 5 |
| 17 | Junior | 5 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 5 | 9 | 2 |
| 18 | Alianza | 6 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 5 | 12 | 2 |
| 19 | Boyaca Chico | 5 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 12 | 2 |
| 20 | Deportivo Pasto | 7 | 0 | 1 | 6 | 5 | 13 | 1 |
Common opponents 3 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Independiente Santa Fe | Fortaleza CEIF |
|---|---|---|
| America de Cali | 0-0 D | 1-2 L |
| Boyaca Chico | 2-0 W | 0-0 D |
| Once Caldas | 2-2 D | 1-2 L |
| Record vs common | 1 W 2 D 0 L | 0 W 1 D 2 L |
Better against common opponents: Independiente Santa Fe (3 of 3 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Independiente Santa Fe
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30/08 | Junior Colombia Primera A |
0-0 | 1-1 | 5 | 4 | D |
| 23/08 | America de Cali Colombia Primera A |
0-0 | 0-0 | 9 | 4 | D |
| 08/08 | Boyaca Chico Colombia Primera A |
0-0 | 2-0 | 2 | 2 | W |
| 03/08 | Once Caldas Colombia Primera A |
1-0 | 2-2 | 3 | 3 | D |
| 26/07 | Aguilas Doradas Colombia Primera A |
0-0 | 1-2 | 1 | 5 | L |
| 24/05 | Junior Colombia Primera A |
0-0 | 0-0 | 3 | 5 | D |
| 17/05 | Junior Colombia Primera A |
0-1 | 1-1 | 6 | 4 | D |
| 13/05 | America de Cali Colombia Primera A |
2-0 | 4-0 | 2 | 5 | W |
| 10/05 | America de Cali Colombia Primera A |
1-0 | 1-1 | 2 | 2 | D |
| 03/05 | Internacional de Bogota Colombia Primera A |
0-0 | 3-1 | 4 | 4 | W |
Fortaleza CEIF
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 02/09 | Once Caldas Colombia Primera A |
1-1 | 1-2 | 0 | 3 | L |
| 26/08 | Boyaca Chico Colombia Primera A |
0-0 | 0-0 | 4 | 4 | D |
| 23/08 | Atletico Nacional Medellin Colombia Primera A |
1-0 | 1-2 | 4 | 5 | L |
| 08/08 | Cucuta Deportivo Colombia Primera A |
1-0 | 2-0 | 1 | 4 | W |
| 04/08 | Llaneros Colombia Primera A |
1-2 | 1-3 | 3 | 6 | L |
| 01/08 | Deportivo Pereira Colombia Primera A |
0-0 | 0-0 | 9 | 4 | D |
| 27/07 | Alianza Colombia Primera A |
1-0 | 1-1 | 3 | 4 | D |
| 03/05 | Atletico Bucaramanga Colombia Primera A |
1-0 | 2-1 | 6 | 3 | W |
| 26/04 | Independiente Medellin Colombia Primera A |
0-0 | 0-1 | 4 | 3 | L |
| 23/04 | America de Cali Colombia Primera A |
0-1 | 1-2 | 5 | 8 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Independiente Santa Fe vs Fortaleza CEIF?
According to our model, the most likely result is a Independiente Santa Fe win (66%). Probabilities: Independiente Santa Fe 66%, draw 24%, Fortaleza CEIF 10%.
How many goals are expected in Independiente Santa Fe vs Fortaleza CEIF?
The model expects 2.39 goals (Independiente Santa Fe 1.81 · Fortaleza CEIF 0.58), with a 50% chance of over 2.25 goals.
Will both teams score in Independiente Santa Fe vs Fortaleza CEIF?
The model gives a 53% chance that not both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-0.