Football · Colombia Primera A · 28/08, 01:10

Prediction: Llaneros vs Millonarios

Team pages: Llaneros · Millonarios

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.11Total

Llaneros0.86

Millonarios1.26

1X2

25% 31% 45%

Llaneros Draw Millonarios

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 65% Not both to score 51%

Most likely score

1-1

Recent form · 10 last

Llaneros 3-5-2 (W-D-L)

DWDLDLWDWD

Millonarios 3-4-3 (W-D-L)

DLDLWDLWWD

Head-to-head

Llaneros 1–2–3 Millonarios (6 last)

Millonarios1-0Llaneros
Millonarios2-1Llaneros
Millonarios0-1Llaneros
Llaneros2-2Millonarios
Millonarios1-1Llaneros
Llaneros1-2Millonarios

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Llaneros 1526 · Millonarios 1503

	Llaneros	Draw	Millonarios
Our model	24%	32%	44%
Market	25%	30%	45%

Estimated total (ours) 2.11 goals · Bet365 line 2

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 64%model estimate

Match keys

H2H favours Millonarios: 3-2-1.
High corners: 13.1 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 12.4 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Llaneros	Millonarios
Goals for / against (FT)	0.9 / 1	1.2 / 1.1
Goals for / against (HT)	0.4 / 0.5	0.4 / 0.4
Half-time result (W/D/L)	20/60/20%	30/50/20%
Corners (HT / FT)	3.5 / 6	3.8 / 7.1
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	5.8 / 0.3	6.6 / 0.2

Odds Bet365

13.70

X3.10

22.05

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+0.25)2.02

2 (-0.25)1.77

Line ⓘ

Over 21.80

Under 22.00

Diff.: 0.1 · xG: 2.1

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 18:11

	Bet365	Best now
1	3.70 → 3.70	Bet365 3.70
X	3.10 → 3.10	Bet365 3.10
2	2.05 → 2.05	Bet365 2.05

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 8.1%

Time*	1	X	2
18:06 +5’	3.70	3.10	2.05

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Llaneros 1–2–3 Millonarios

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Date	Home	Score	Away
12/05/26 Colombia Cup	Millonarios	1-0 HT 0-0	Llaneros
14/02/26 Colombia Primera A	Millonarios	2-1 HT 1-0	Llaneros
29/07/25 Colombia Primera A	Millonarios	0-1 HT 0-0	Llaneros
12/02/25 Colombia Primera A	Llaneros	2-2 HT 1-2	Millonarios
12/04/19 Colombia Cup	Millonarios	1-1 HT 0-1	Llaneros
20/03/19 Colombia Cup	Llaneros	1-2 HT 1-0	Millonarios

Standings · Colombia Primera A · Finalizacion

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	America de Cali	5	4	1	0	11	0	13
2	Deportes Tolima	5	3	1	1	8	6	10
3	Independiente Medellin	4	3	0	1	7	5	9
4	Atletico Bucaramanga	5	2	3	0	6	4	9
5	Llaneros	4	2	2	0	6	3	8
6	Aguilas Doradas	4	2	2	0	6	4	8
7	Millonarios	4	2	1	1	4	2	7
8	Deportivo Cali	3	2	0	1	4	1	6
9	Once Caldas	4	1	2	1	8	5	5
10	Independiente Santa Fe	4	1	2	1	5	4	5
11	Fortaleza CEIF	4	1	2	1	4	4	5
12	Cucuta Deportivo	5	1	2	2	4	9	5
13	Internacional de Bogota	4	1	1	2	3	5	4
14	Jaguares de Cordoba	5	1	1	3	2	7	4
15	Atletico Nacional Medellin	2	1	0	1	3	1	3
16	Deportivo Pereira	3	0	2	1	0	1	2
17	Alianza	4	0	2	2	4	6	2
18	Junior	2	0	0	2	1	3	0
19	Deportivo Pasto	4	0	0	4	3	9	0
20	Boyaca Chico	3	0	0	3	0	10	0

Common opponents 6 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Llaneros	Millonarios
Aguilas Doradas	1-1 D	1-1 D
Fortaleza CEIF	3-1 W	2-2 D
Atletico Bucaramanga	1-1 D	0-1 L
Alianza	0-0 D	2-2 D
Junior	0-2 L	1-0 W
Independiente Santa Fe	1-0 W	1-1 D
Record vs common	2 W 3 D 1 L	1 W 4 D 1 L

Better against common opponents: Llaneros (3 of 6 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Llaneros

DWDLDLWDWD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
19/08	Aguilas Doradas Colombia Primera A	1-0	1-1	3	3	D
04/08	Fortaleza CEIF Colombia Primera A	2-1	3-1	7	6	W
31/07	Atletico Bucaramanga Colombia Primera A	0-0	1-1	5	7	D
25/07	Deportivo Pereira Colombia Primera A	0-0	1-0	6	7	W
02/05	Boyaca Chico Colombia Primera A	0-1	0-3	3	3	L
27/04	Alianza Colombia Primera A	0-0	0-0	7	5	D
20/04	Junior Colombia Primera A	0-2	0-2	12	6	L
12/04	Deportivo Cali Colombia Primera A	0-0	1-1	5	8	D
02/04	Independiente Santa Fe Colombia Primera A	0-0	1-0	4	9	W
30/03	Once Caldas Colombia Primera A	1-1	1-1	8	7	D

Millonarios

DLDLWDLWWD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
22/08	Aguilas Doradas Colombia Primera A	0-0	1-1	3	10	D
05/08	Deportivo Pasto Colombia Primera A	1-0	2-0	8	7	W
02/08	Junior Colombia Primera A	0-0	1-0	7	6	W
26/07	Atletico Bucaramanga Colombia Primera A	0-0	0-1	8	3	L
03/05	Alianza Colombia Primera A	0-1	2-2	8	8	D
24/04	Deportes Tolima Colombia Primera A	1-0	2-0	6	7	W
20/04	America de Cali Colombia Primera A	0-2	1-3	2	5	L
12/04	Independiente Santa Fe Colombia Primera A	0-0	1-1	10	7	D
03/04	Jaguares de Cordoba Colombia Primera A	0-0	0-1	5	4	L
31/03	Fortaleza CEIF Colombia Primera A	2-1	2-2	14	11	D

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Llaneros vs Millonarios?

According to our model, the most likely result is an Millonarios win (45%). Probabilities: Llaneros 25%, draw 31%, Millonarios 45%.

How many goals are expected in Llaneros vs Millonarios?

The model expects 2.11 goals (Llaneros 0.86 · Millonarios 1.26), with a 51% chance of over 2 goals.

Will both teams score in Llaneros vs Millonarios?

The model gives a 51% chance that not both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.