Football · Colombia Primera A · 06/09, 23:00

Prediction: Internacional de Bogota vs Aguilas Doradas

Team pages: Internacional de Bogota · Aguilas Doradas

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.51Total

Internacional de Bogota1.57

Aguilas Doradas0.94

1X2

51% 27% 22%

Internacional de Bogota Draw Aguilas Doradas

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 54% Both teams to score 52%

Most likely score

1-1 13%

Recent form · 10 last

Internacional de Bogota 1-4-5 (W-D-L)

LLLLWLDDDD

Aguilas Doradas 4-4-2 (W-D-L)

WLLDWWWDDD

Head-to-head

Internacional de Bogota 0–1–0 Aguilas Doradas (1 last)

Aguilas Doradas0-0Internacional de Bogota

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Internacional de Bogota 1488 · Aguilas Doradas 1532

	Internacional de Bogota	Draw	Aguilas Doradas
Our model	51%	28%	21%
Market	51%	27%	22%

Estimated total (ours) 2.51 goals · Bet365 line 2.25 · +0.3

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 53%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Aguilas Doradas (rating 1488 vs 1532).
High corners: 10.8 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 9.2 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Internacional de Bogota	Aguilas Doradas
Goals for / against (FT)	0.9 / 2	1.4 / 1.5
Goals for / against (HT)	0.4 / 0.7	0.3 / 0.8
Half-time result (W/D/L)	0/70/30%	20/30/50%
Corners (HT / FT)	3.9 / 5.7	2.6 / 5.1
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.8 / 0.2	5.4 / 0.4

Odds Bet365

11.83

X3.50

24.33

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.5)1.82

2 (+0.5)1.98

Line ⓘ

Over 2.251.88

Under 2.251.93

Diff.: 0.65 · xG: 2.9

Market movement

Match winner · 4 moves · last 08:02

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.70 → 1.83▲	Bet365 1.83
X	3.40 → 3.50▲	Bet365 3.50
2	5.00 → 4.33▼	Bet365 4.33

See the full journey (4)

Bet365 margin 6.2%

Time*	1	X	2
18:14 +3’	1.70	3.40	5.00
21:15 +23’	1.80▲	3.30▼	4.50▼
04:06 +22’	1.80	3.50▲	4.50
07:54 +8’	1.83▲	3.50	4.33▼

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Internacional de Bogota 0–1–0 Aguilas Doradas

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Date	Home	Score	Away
01/03/26 Colombia Primera A	Aguilas Doradas	0-0 HT 0-0	Internacional de Bogota

Standings · Colombia Primera A · Finalizacion

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	America de Cali	8	6	2	0	20	4	20
2	Independiente Medellin	6	5	0	1	12	6	15
3	Deportes Tolima	6	4	1	1	10	7	13
4	Atletico Nacional Medellin	5	4	0	1	12	4	12
5	Millonarios	7	3	2	2	8	5	11
6	Llaneros	7	3	2	2	8	7	11
7	Atletico Bucaramanga	6	2	4	0	7	5	10
8	Once Caldas	6	2	3	1	11	7	9
9	Independiente Santa Fe	6	2	3	1	9	7	9
10	Aguilas Doradas	5	2	3	0	8	6	9
11	Deportivo Cali	6	2	2	2	8	6	8
12	Cucuta Deportivo	7	2	2	3	6	11	8
13	Internacional de Bogota	7	1	4	2	6	8	7
14	Fortaleza CEIF	7	1	3	3	6	8	6
15	Deportivo Pereira	5	1	2	2	2	5	5
16	Jaguares de Cordoba	6	1	2	3	4	9	5
17	Junior	5	0	2	3	5	9	2
18	Alianza	7	0	2	5	5	15	2
19	Boyaca Chico	5	0	2	3	2	12	2
20	Deportivo Pasto	7	0	1	6	5	13	1

Common opponents 3 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Internacional de Bogota	Aguilas Doradas
Millonarios	0-0 D	1-1 D
Deportivo Pasto	1-1 D	2-1 W
Independiente Santa Fe	1-3 L	2-1 W
Record vs common	0 W 2 D 1 L	2 W 1 D 0 L

Better against common opponents: Aguilas Doradas (2 of 3 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Internacional de Bogota

LLLLWLDDDD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
31/08	Millonarios Colombia Primera A	0-0	0-0	5	5	D
28/08	Deportivo Pasto Colombia Primera A	1-1	1-1	10	3	D
24/08	Deportivo Cali Colombia Primera A	1-2	2-2	2	1	D
20/08	Cucuta Deportivo Colombia Primera A	0-0	1-1	7	10	D
09/08	Deportes Tolima Colombia Primera A	0-1	1-2	7	3	L
06/08	Jaguares de Cordoba Colombia Primera A	0-0	1-0	8	2	W
26/07	America de Cali Colombia Primera A	0-0	0-2	8	5	L
13/05	Atletico Nacional Medellin Colombia Primera A	1-2	1-7	3	1	L
09/05	Atletico Nacional Medellin Colombia Primera A	1-1	1-2	6	6	L
03/05	Independiente Santa Fe Colombia Primera A	0-0	1-3	1	4	L

Aguilas Doradas

WLLDWWWDDD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
30/08	Boyaca Chico Colombia Primera A	0-2	2-2	15	1	D
22/08	Millonarios Colombia Primera A	0-0	1-1	6	10	D
19/08	Llaneros Colombia Primera A	0-1	1-1	5	3	D
01/08	Deportivo Pasto Colombia Primera A	1-1	2-1	6	6	W
26/07	Independiente Santa Fe Colombia Primera A	0-0	2-1	2	5	W
03/05	Independiente Medellin Colombia Primera A	1-0	2-1	2	8	W
26/04	Once Caldas Colombia Primera A	0-1	2-2	4	9	D
19/04	Fortaleza CEIF Colombia Primera A	0-1	0-2	2	5	L
11/04	Junior Colombia Primera A	0-2	0-3	8	5	L
07/04	Atletico Bucaramanga Colombia Primera A	1-0	2-1	1	6	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Internacional de Bogota vs Aguilas Doradas?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Internacional de Bogota win (51%). Probabilities: Internacional de Bogota 51%, draw 27%, Aguilas Doradas 22%.

How many goals are expected in Internacional de Bogota vs Aguilas Doradas?

The model expects 2.51 goals (Internacional de Bogota 1.57 · Aguilas Doradas 0.94), with a 52% chance of over 2.25 goals.

Will both teams score in Internacional de Bogota vs Aguilas Doradas?

The model gives a 52% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.