Football · Colombia Primera A · 07/09, 01:10
Prediction: Deportivo Pereira vs Millonarios
Team pages: Deportivo Pereira · Millonarios
Prediction summary
Expected goals
2.4Total
Deportivo Pereira0.71
Millonarios1.69
1X2
Deportivo Pereira
Draw
Millonarios
Markets
Under 2.5 goals 57%
Not both to score 51%
Most likely score
0-1 14%
Recent form · 10 last
Deportivo Pereira
2-3-5 (W-D-L)
Millonarios
4-3-3 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Deportivo Pereira
1–3–2
Millonarios
(6 last)
- Millonarios5-1Deportivo Pereira
- Deportivo Pereira3-2Millonarios
- Millonarios0-0Deportivo Pereira
- Millonarios0-0Deportivo Pereira
- Deportivo Pereira2-2Millonarios
- Millonarios1-0Deportivo Pereira
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Deportivo Pereira 1487 · Millonarios 1532
| Deportivo Pereira | Draw | Millonarios | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 14% | 26% | 60% |
| Market | 15% | 25% | 60% |
Estimated total (ours)
2.4 goals · Bet365 line 2.25
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 56%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Millonarios (rating 1487 vs 1532).
- H2H favours Millonarios: 2-3-1.
- Cards-heavy: 10.9 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Deportivo Pereira | Millonarios | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 0.5 / 1.1 | 1.3 / 1 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.3 / 0.5 | 0.4 / 0.4 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 20/50/30% | 30/50/20% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 1.7 / 3 | 3 / 6.2 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 4.5 / 0.4 | 6.4 / 0.2 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Deportivo Pereira 1–3–2 Millonarios
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 27/02/26 Colombia Primera A | Millonarios | 5-1 HT 4-0 | Deportivo Pereira |
| 16/10/25 Colombia Primera A | Deportivo Pereira | 3-2 HT 2-1 | Millonarios |
| 09/05/25 Colombia Primera A | Millonarios | 0-0 HT 0-0 | Deportivo Pereira |
| 11/11/24 Colombia Primera A | Millonarios | 0-0 HT 0-0 | Deportivo Pereira |
| 26/05/24 Colombia Primera A | Deportivo Pereira | 2-2 HT 0-1 | Millonarios |
| 12/05/24 Colombia Primera A | Millonarios | 1-0 HT 1-0 | Deportivo Pereira |
Standings · Colombia Primera A · Finalizacion
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | America de Cali | 8 | 6 | 2 | 0 | 20 | 4 | 20 |
| 2 | Independiente Medellin | 6 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 12 | 6 | 15 |
| 3 | Deportes Tolima | 6 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 10 | 7 | 13 |
| 4 | Atletico Nacional Medellin | 5 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 12 | 4 | 12 |
| 5 | Millonarios | 7 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 8 | 5 | 11 |
| 6 | Llaneros | 7 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 8 | 7 | 11 |
| 7 | Atletico Bucaramanga | 6 | 2 | 4 | 0 | 7 | 5 | 10 |
| 8 | Once Caldas | 6 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 11 | 7 | 9 |
| 9 | Independiente Santa Fe | 6 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 9 | 7 | 9 |
| 10 | Aguilas Doradas | 5 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 8 | 6 | 9 |
| 11 | Deportivo Cali | 6 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 8 | 6 | 8 |
| 12 | Cucuta Deportivo | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 6 | 11 | 8 |
| 13 | Internacional de Bogota | 7 | 1 | 4 | 2 | 6 | 8 | 7 |
| 14 | Fortaleza CEIF | 7 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 6 | 8 | 6 |
| 15 | Deportivo Pereira | 5 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 5 | 5 |
| 16 | Jaguares de Cordoba | 6 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 9 | 5 |
| 17 | Junior | 5 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 5 | 9 | 2 |
| 18 | Alianza | 7 | 0 | 2 | 5 | 5 | 15 | 2 |
| 19 | Boyaca Chico | 5 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 12 | 2 |
| 20 | Deportivo Pasto | 7 | 0 | 1 | 6 | 5 | 13 | 1 |
Common opponents 5 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Deportivo Pereira | Millonarios |
|---|---|---|
| Deportivo Pasto | 2-1 W | 2-0 W |
| Alianza | 0-0 D | 2-2 D |
| Llaneros | 0-1 L | 2-0 W |
| America de Cali | 0-1 L | 1-3 L |
| Deportes Tolima | 0-2 L | 2-0 W |
| Record vs common | 1 W 1 D 3 L | 3 W 1 D 1 L |
Better against common opponents: Millonarios (3 of 5 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Deportivo Pereira
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 04/09 | Independiente Medellin Colombia Primera A |
0-0 | 0-3 | 2 | 6 | L |
| 01/09 | Deportivo Pasto Colombia Primera A |
2-1 | 2-1 | 3 | 6 | W |
| 22/08 | Alianza Colombia Primera A |
0-0 | 0-0 | 3 | 5 | D |
| 01/08 | Fortaleza CEIF Colombia Primera A |
0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 4 | D |
| 25/07 | Llaneros Colombia Primera A |
0-0 | 0-1 | 3 | 7 | L |
| 04/05 | America de Cali Colombia Primera A |
0-1 | 0-1 | 1 | 3 | L |
| 25/04 | Atletico Nacional Medellin Colombia Primera A |
1-0 | 1-0 | 5 | 7 | W |
| 19/04 | Deportes Tolima Colombia Primera A |
0-1 | 0-2 | 3 | 0 | L |
| 10/04 | Once Caldas Colombia Primera A |
0-0 | 0-0 | 5 | 6 | D |
| 06/04 | Alianza Colombia Primera A |
0-2 | 2-3 | 5 | 5 | L |
Millonarios
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 03/09 | Independiente Santa Fe Colombia Primera A |
1-1 | 2-3 | 8 | 8 | L |
| 31/08 | Internacional de Bogota Colombia Primera A |
0-0 | 0-0 | 7 | 5 | D |
| 28/08 | Llaneros Colombia Primera A |
1-0 | 2-0 | 5 | 7 | W |
| 22/08 | Aguilas Doradas Colombia Primera A |
0-0 | 1-1 | 3 | 10 | D |
| 05/08 | Deportivo Pasto Colombia Primera A |
1-0 | 2-0 | 8 | 7 | W |
| 02/08 | Junior Colombia Primera A |
0-0 | 1-0 | 7 | 6 | W |
| 26/07 | Atletico Bucaramanga Colombia Primera A |
0-0 | 0-1 | 8 | 3 | L |
| 03/05 | Alianza Colombia Primera A |
0-1 | 2-2 | 8 | 8 | D |
| 24/04 | Deportes Tolima Colombia Primera A |
1-0 | 2-0 | 6 | 7 | W |
| 20/04 | America de Cali Colombia Primera A |
0-2 | 1-3 | 2 | 5 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Deportivo Pereira vs Millonarios?
According to our model, the most likely result is an Millonarios win (60%). Probabilities: Deportivo Pereira 14%, draw 26%, Millonarios 60%.
How many goals are expected in Deportivo Pereira vs Millonarios?
The model expects 2.4 goals (Deportivo Pereira 0.71 · Millonarios 1.69), with a 52% chance of over 2.25 goals.
Will both teams score in Deportivo Pereira vs Millonarios?
The model gives a 51% chance that not both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 0-1.