Football · Colombia Primera A · 15/09, 03:00
Prediction: America de Cali vs Deportivo Pasto
Team pages: America de Cali · Deportivo Pasto
Prediction summary
Expected goals
2.94Total
America de Cali2.21
Deportivo Pasto0.73
1X2
America de Cali
Draw
Deportivo Pasto
Markets
Over 2.5 goals 56%
Both teams to score 51%
Most likely score
2-0 13%
Recent form · 10 last
America de Cali
6-3-1 (W-D-L)
Deportivo Pasto
0-2-8 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
America de Cali
1–3–2
Deportivo Pasto
(6 last)
- Deportivo Pasto2-0America de Cali
- Deportivo Pasto0-2America de Cali
- America de Cali1-1Deportivo Pasto
- Deportivo Pasto3-1America de Cali
- America de Cali0-0Deportivo Pasto
- America de Cali1-1Deportivo Pasto
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · America de Cali 1591 · Deportivo Pasto 1420
| America de Cali | Draw | Deportivo Pasto | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 70% | 20% | 10% |
| Market | 69% | 21% | 9% |
Estimated total (ours)
2.94 goals · Bet365 line 2.25 · +0.7
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 63%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours America de Cali (rating 1591 vs 1420).
- H2H favours Deportivo Pasto: 2-3-1.
- Cards-heavy: 10.5 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| America de Cali | Deportivo Pasto | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 2.1 / 0.9 | 0.7 / 1.8 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.7 / 0.6 | 0.6 / 1.2 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 20/50/30% | 0/40/60% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 2 / 4.5 | 1.7 / 5.1 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 4.7 / 0.3 | 5.8 / 0.9 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · America de Cali 1–3–2 Deportivo Pasto
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 10/03/26 Colombia Primera A | Deportivo Pasto | 2-0 HT 2-0 | America de Cali |
| 25/09/25 Colombia Primera A | Deportivo Pasto | 0-2 HT 0-1 | America de Cali |
| 08/02/25 Colombia Primera A | America de Cali | 1-1 HT 1-1 | Deportivo Pasto |
| 08/11/24 Colombia Primera A | Deportivo Pasto | 3-1 HT 1-1 | America de Cali |
| 19/04/24 Colombia Primera A | America de Cali | 0-0 HT 0-0 | Deportivo Pasto |
| 31/07/23 Colombia Primera A | America de Cali | 1-1 HT 0-0 | Deportivo Pasto |
Standings · Colombia Primera A · Finalizacion
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | America de Cali | 8 | 6 | 2 | 0 | 20 | 4 | 20 |
| 2 | Deportes Tolima | 8 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 12 | 9 | 16 |
| 3 | Independiente Medellin | 7 | 5 | 0 | 2 | 13 | 8 | 15 |
| 4 | Independiente Santa Fe | 8 | 3 | 4 | 1 | 12 | 9 | 13 |
| 5 | Millonarios | 9 | 3 | 4 | 2 | 10 | 7 | 13 |
| 6 | Atletico Nacional Medellin | 5 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 12 | 4 | 12 |
| 7 | Llaneros | 9 | 3 | 2 | 4 | 11 | 12 | 11 |
| 8 | Internacional de Bogota | 9 | 2 | 5 | 2 | 11 | 12 | 11 |
| 9 | Aguilas Doradas | 6 | 2 | 4 | 0 | 10 | 8 | 10 |
| 10 | Atletico Bucaramanga | 6 | 2 | 4 | 0 | 7 | 5 | 10 |
| 11 | Once Caldas | 7 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 11 | 9 | 9 |
| 12 | Deportivo Cali | 7 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 9 | 7 | 9 |
| 13 | Cucuta Deportivo | 8 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 8 | 13 | 9 |
| 14 | Fortaleza CEIF | 9 | 1 | 5 | 3 | 10 | 12 | 8 |
| 15 | Boyaca Chico | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 6 | 13 | 8 |
| 16 | Jaguares de Cordoba | 8 | 1 | 4 | 3 | 9 | 14 | 7 |
| 17 | Deportivo Pereira | 6 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 6 | 6 |
| 18 | Alianza | 8 | 1 | 2 | 5 | 6 | 15 | 5 |
| 19 | Junior | 7 | 0 | 3 | 4 | 8 | 13 | 3 |
| 20 | Deportivo Pasto | 8 | 0 | 2 | 6 | 7 | 15 | 2 |
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
America de Cali
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 03/09 | Alianza Colombia Primera A |
2-0 | 3-0 | 3 | 2 | W |
| 29/08 | Jaguares de Cordoba Colombia Primera A |
1-2 | 2-2 | 13 | 7 | D |
| 27/08 | Junior Colombia Primera A |
1-1 | 4-2 | 4 | 8 | W |
| 23/08 | Independiente Santa Fe Colombia Primera A |
0-0 | 0-0 | 3 | 4 | D |
| 10/08 | Atletico Nacional Medellin Colombia Primera A |
0-0 | 1-0 | 2 | 7 | W |
| 06/08 | Once Caldas Colombia Primera A |
0-0 | 1-0 | 5 | 7 | W |
| 03/08 | Boyaca Chico Colombia Primera A |
3-0 | 7-0 | 9 | 3 | W |
| 26/07 | Internacional de Bogota Colombia Primera A |
0-0 | 2-0 | 1 | 5 | W |
| 13/05 | Independiente Santa Fe Colombia Primera A |
0-2 | 0-4 | 2 | 5 | L |
| 10/05 | Independiente Santa Fe Colombia Primera A |
0-1 | 1-1 | 3 | 2 | D |
Deportivo Pasto
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 06/09 | Cucuta Deportivo Colombia Primera A |
1-2 | 2-2 | 5 | 13 | D |
| 01/09 | Deportivo Pereira Colombia Primera A |
1-2 | 1-2 | 8 | 6 | L |
| 28/08 | Internacional de Bogota Colombia Primera A |
1-1 | 1-1 | 2 | 3 | D |
| 23/08 | Llaneros Colombia Primera A |
0-0 | 0-1 | 5 | 11 | L |
| 09/08 | Deportivo Cali Colombia Primera A |
0-1 | 0-2 | 6 | 8 | L |
| 05/08 | Millonarios Colombia Primera A |
0-1 | 0-2 | 3 | 7 | L |
| 01/08 | Aguilas Doradas Colombia Primera A |
1-1 | 1-2 | 3 | 6 | L |
| 25/07 | Independiente Medellin Colombia Primera A |
2-2 | 2-3 | 4 | 7 | L |
| 14/05 | Deportes Tolima Colombia Primera A |
0-1 | 0-2 | 9 | 3 | L |
| 10/05 | Deportes Tolima Colombia Primera A |
0-1 | 0-1 | 6 | 3 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in America de Cali vs Deportivo Pasto?
According to our model, the most likely result is a America de Cali win (70%). Probabilities: America de Cali 70%, draw 21%, Deportivo Pasto 10%.
How many goals are expected in America de Cali vs Deportivo Pasto?
The model expects 2.94 goals (America de Cali 2.21 · Deportivo Pasto 0.73), with a 57% chance of over 2.25 goals.
Will both teams score in America de Cali vs Deportivo Pasto?
The model gives a 51% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 2-0.