Football · Colombia Primera A · 13/09, 03:20
Prediction: Alianza vs Junior
Prediction summary
Expected goals
2.34Total
Alianza1.17
Junior1.17
1X2
Alianza
Draw
Junior
Markets
Under 2.5 goals 59%
Both teams to score 51%
Most likely score
1-1 15%
Recent form · 10 last
Alianza
0-4-6 (W-D-L)
Junior
1-5-4 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Alianza
0–2–3
Junior
(5 last)
- Junior1-1Alianza
- Alianza0-1Junior
- Junior2-0Alianza
- Junior2-2Alianza
- Alianza0-1Junior
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Alianza 1427 · Junior 1507
| Alianza | Draw | Junior | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 35% | 31% | 35% |
| Market | 34% | 31% | 34% |
Estimated total (ours)
2.34 goals · Bet365 line 2 · +0.3
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 55%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Junior (rating 1427 vs 1507).
- H2H favours Junior: 3-2-0.
- Cards-heavy: 11.5 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Alianza | Junior | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 0.7 / 1.8 | 1.2 / 1.4 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.4 / 1 | 0.5 / 0.4 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 10/40/50% | 20/70/10% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 1.5 / 3.6 | 2.7 / 4.9 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 5.8 / 0.1 | 5.7 / 0.4 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Alianza 0–2–3 Junior
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 06/03/26 Colombia Primera A | Junior | 1-1 HT 1-0 | Alianza |
| 12/10/25 Colombia Primera A | Alianza | 0-1 HT 0-0 | Junior |
| 20/04/25 Colombia Primera A | Junior | 2-0 HT 1-0 | Alianza |
| 05/08/24 Colombia Primera A | Junior | 2-2 HT 1-1 | Alianza |
| 05/02/24 Colombia Primera A | Alianza | 0-1 HT 0-0 | Junior |
Standings · Colombia Primera A · Finalizacion
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | America de Cali | 8 | 6 | 2 | 0 | 20 | 4 | 20 |
| 2 | Independiente Medellin | 6 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 12 | 6 | 15 |
| 3 | Deportes Tolima | 6 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 10 | 7 | 13 |
| 4 | Atletico Nacional Medellin | 5 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 12 | 4 | 12 |
| 5 | Millonarios | 8 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 9 | 6 | 12 |
| 6 | Llaneros | 7 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 8 | 7 | 11 |
| 7 | Independiente Santa Fe | 7 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 11 | 9 | 10 |
| 8 | Aguilas Doradas | 6 | 2 | 4 | 0 | 10 | 8 | 10 |
| 9 | Atletico Bucaramanga | 6 | 2 | 4 | 0 | 7 | 5 | 10 |
| 10 | Once Caldas | 7 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 11 | 9 | 9 |
| 11 | Cucuta Deportivo | 8 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 8 | 13 | 9 |
| 12 | Deportivo Cali | 6 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 8 | 6 | 8 |
| 13 | Internacional de Bogota | 8 | 1 | 5 | 2 | 8 | 10 | 8 |
| 14 | Fortaleza CEIF | 8 | 1 | 4 | 3 | 8 | 10 | 7 |
| 15 | Deportivo Pereira | 6 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 6 | 6 |
| 16 | Jaguares de Cordoba | 7 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 7 | 12 | 6 |
| 17 | Boyaca Chico | 6 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 12 | 5 |
| 18 | Junior | 6 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 8 | 12 | 3 |
| 19 | Deportivo Pasto | 8 | 0 | 2 | 6 | 7 | 15 | 2 |
| 20 | Alianza | 7 | 0 | 2 | 5 | 5 | 15 | 2 |
Common opponents 4 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Alianza | Junior |
|---|---|---|
| America de Cali | 0-3 L | 2-4 L |
| Atletico Nacional Medellin | 1-5 L | 0-1 L |
| Deportes Tolima | 1-2 L | 1-2 L |
| Millonarios | 2-2 D | 0-1 L |
| Record vs common | 0 W 1 D 3 L | 0 W 0 D 4 L |
Better against common opponents: Junior (2 of 4 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Alianza
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 03/09 | America de Cali Colombia Primera A |
0-2 | 0-3 | 4 | 2 | L |
| 30/08 | Atletico Nacional Medellin Colombia Primera A |
1-3 | 1-5 | 2 | 5 | L |
| 26/08 | Cucuta Deportivo Colombia Primera A |
0-0 | 0-1 | 5 | 11 | L |
| 22/08 | Deportivo Pereira Colombia Primera A |
0-0 | 0-0 | 4 | 5 | D |
| 09/08 | Atletico Bucaramanga Colombia Primera A |
1-2 | 2-3 | 3 | 6 | L |
| 01/08 | Deportes Tolima Colombia Primera A |
1-1 | 1-2 | 2 | 5 | L |
| 27/07 | Fortaleza CEIF Colombia Primera A |
0-1 | 1-1 | 5 | 4 | D |
| 03/05 | Millonarios Colombia Primera A |
1-0 | 2-2 | 3 | 8 | D |
| 27/04 | Llaneros Colombia Primera A |
0-0 | 0-0 | 2 | 5 | D |
| 19/04 | Independiente Medellin Colombia Primera A |
0-1 | 0-1 | 6 | 8 | L |
Junior
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 06/09 | Jaguares de Cordoba Colombia Primera A |
1-1 | 3-3 | 7 | 6 | D |
| 30/08 | Independiente Santa Fe Colombia Primera A |
0-0 | 1-1 | 6 | 4 | D |
| 27/08 | America de Cali Colombia Primera A |
1-1 | 2-4 | 2 | 8 | L |
| 24/08 | Once Caldas Colombia Primera A |
0-0 | 1-1 | 4 | 11 | D |
| 02/08 | Millonarios Colombia Primera A |
0-0 | 0-1 | 2 | 6 | L |
| 26/07 | Deportes Tolima Colombia Primera A |
0-2 | 1-2 | 7 | 3 | L |
| 09/06 | Atletico Nacional Medellin Colombia Primera A |
0-0 | 0-1 | 5 | 6 | L |
| 03/06 | Atletico Nacional Medellin Colombia Primera A |
2-0 | 3-0 | 6 | 8 | W |
| 24/05 | Independiente Santa Fe Colombia Primera A |
0-0 | 0-0 | 7 | 5 | D |
| 17/05 | Independiente Santa Fe Colombia Primera A |
1-0 | 1-1 | 3 | 4 | D |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Alianza vs Junior?
According to our model, the most likely result is a Alianza win (35%). Probabilities: Alianza 35%, draw 31%, Junior 35%.
How many goals are expected in Alianza vs Junior?
The model expects 2.34 goals (Alianza 1.17 · Junior 1.17), with a 55% chance of over 2 goals.
Will both teams score in Alianza vs Junior?
The model gives a 51% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.