Football · Colombia Primera A · 13/09, 23:05
Prediction: Atletico Nacional Medellin vs Aguilas Doradas
Team pages: Atletico Nacional Medellin · Aguilas Doradas
Prediction summary
Expected goals
3.15Total
Atletico Nacional Medellin2.28
Aguilas Doradas0.88
1X2
Atletico Nacional Medellin
Draw
Aguilas Doradas
Markets
Under 3.5 goals 61%
Both teams to score 53%
Most likely score
2-0 11%
Recent form · 10 last
Atletico Nacional Medellin
8-0-2 (W-D-L)
Aguilas Doradas
3-5-2 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Atletico Nacional Medellin
4–1–1
Aguilas Doradas
(6 last)
- Aguilas Doradas1-2Atletico Nacional Medellin
- Atletico Nacional Medellin2-1Aguilas Doradas
- Aguilas Doradas2-1Atletico Nacional Medellin
- Atletico Nacional Medellin1-1Aguilas Doradas
- Aguilas Doradas0-3Atletico Nacional Medellin
- Atletico Nacional Medellin2-1Aguilas Doradas
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Atletico Nacional Medellin 1612 · Aguilas Doradas 1511
| Atletico Nacional Medellin | Draw | Aguilas Doradas | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 68% | 20% | 12% |
| Market | 68% | 21% | 12% |
Estimated total (ours)
3.15 goals · Bet365 line 2.75 · +0.4
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 62%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Atletico Nacional Medellin (rating 1612 vs 1511).
- H2H favours Atletico Nacional Medellin: 4-1-1.
- High corners: 12.9 combined avg.
- Cards-heavy: 10.2 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Atletico Nacional Medellin | Aguilas Doradas | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 2.4 / 0.9 | 1.4 / 1.6 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.9 / 0.5 | 0.3 / 0.9 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 40/40/20% | 10/40/50% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 3.5 / 6.7 | 3.1 / 6.2 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 4.6 / 0.6 | 5.6 / 0.5 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Atletico Nacional Medellin 4–1–1 Aguilas Doradas
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 07/03/26 Colombia Primera A | Aguilas Doradas | 1-2 HT 1-0 | Atletico Nacional Medellin |
| 09/11/25 Colombia Primera A | Atletico Nacional Medellin | 2-1 HT 1-1 | Aguilas Doradas |
| 18/05/25 Colombia Primera A | Aguilas Doradas | 2-1 HT 1-1 | Atletico Nacional Medellin |
| 06/08/24 Colombia Primera A | Atletico Nacional Medellin | 1-1 HT 0-1 | Aguilas Doradas |
| 05/02/24 Colombia Primera A | Aguilas Doradas | 0-3 HT 0-2 | Atletico Nacional Medellin |
| 05/10/23 Colombia Cup | Atletico Nacional Medellin | 2-1 HT 1-1 | Aguilas Doradas |
Standings · Colombia Primera A · Finalizacion
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | America de Cali | 8 | 6 | 2 | 0 | 20 | 4 | 20 |
| 2 | Deportes Tolima | 8 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 12 | 9 | 16 |
| 3 | Independiente Medellin | 7 | 5 | 0 | 2 | 13 | 8 | 15 |
| 4 | Independiente Santa Fe | 8 | 3 | 4 | 1 | 12 | 9 | 13 |
| 5 | Millonarios | 9 | 3 | 4 | 2 | 10 | 7 | 13 |
| 6 | Atletico Nacional Medellin | 5 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 12 | 4 | 12 |
| 7 | Llaneros | 9 | 3 | 2 | 4 | 11 | 12 | 11 |
| 8 | Internacional de Bogota | 9 | 2 | 5 | 2 | 11 | 12 | 11 |
| 9 | Aguilas Doradas | 6 | 2 | 4 | 0 | 10 | 8 | 10 |
| 10 | Atletico Bucaramanga | 6 | 2 | 4 | 0 | 7 | 5 | 10 |
| 11 | Once Caldas | 7 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 11 | 9 | 9 |
| 12 | Deportivo Cali | 7 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 9 | 7 | 9 |
| 13 | Cucuta Deportivo | 8 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 8 | 13 | 9 |
| 14 | Fortaleza CEIF | 9 | 1 | 5 | 3 | 10 | 12 | 8 |
| 15 | Boyaca Chico | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 6 | 13 | 8 |
| 16 | Jaguares de Cordoba | 8 | 1 | 4 | 3 | 9 | 14 | 7 |
| 17 | Deportivo Pereira | 6 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 6 | 6 |
| 18 | Alianza | 8 | 1 | 2 | 5 | 6 | 15 | 5 |
| 19 | Junior | 7 | 0 | 3 | 4 | 8 | 13 | 3 |
| 20 | Deportivo Pasto | 8 | 0 | 2 | 6 | 7 | 15 | 2 |
Common opponents 3 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Atletico Nacional Medellin | Aguilas Doradas |
|---|---|---|
| Fortaleza CEIF | 2-1 W | 0-2 L |
| Junior | 1-0 W | 0-3 L |
| Internacional de Bogota | 7-1 W | 2-2 D |
| Record vs common | 3 W 0 D 0 L | 0 W 1 D 2 L |
Better against common opponents: Atletico Nacional Medellin (3 of 3 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Atletico Nacional Medellin
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30/08 | Alianza Colombia Primera A |
3-1 | 5-1 | 6 | 5 | W |
| 27/08 | Deportivo Cali Colombia Primera A |
1-0 | 2-1 | 3 | 8 | W |
| 23/08 | Fortaleza CEIF Colombia Primera A |
0-1 | 2-1 | 7 | 5 | W |
| 10/08 | America de Cali Colombia Primera A |
0-0 | 0-1 | 13 | 7 | L |
| 02/08 | Jaguares de Cordoba Colombia Primera A |
3-0 | 3-0 | 4 | 3 | W |
| 09/06 | Junior Colombia Primera A |
0-0 | 1-0 | 13 | 6 | W |
| 03/06 | Junior Colombia Primera A |
0-2 | 0-3 | 3 | 8 | L |
| 24/05 | Deportes Tolima Colombia Primera A |
0-0 | 3-1 | 7 | 3 | W |
| 17/05 | Deportes Tolima Colombia Primera A |
0-0 | 1-0 | 2 | 6 | W |
| 13/05 | Internacional de Bogota Colombia Primera A |
2-1 | 7-1 | 9 | 1 | W |
Aguilas Doradas
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 06/09 | Internacional de Bogota Colombia Primera A |
1-1 | 2-2 | 12 | 9 | D |
| 30/08 | Boyaca Chico Colombia Primera A |
0-2 | 2-2 | 15 | 1 | D |
| 22/08 | Millonarios Colombia Primera A |
0-0 | 1-1 | 6 | 10 | D |
| 19/08 | Llaneros Colombia Primera A |
0-1 | 1-1 | 5 | 3 | D |
| 01/08 | Deportivo Pasto Colombia Primera A |
1-1 | 2-1 | 6 | 6 | W |
| 26/07 | Independiente Santa Fe Colombia Primera A |
0-0 | 2-1 | 2 | 5 | W |
| 03/05 | Independiente Medellin Colombia Primera A |
1-0 | 2-1 | 2 | 8 | W |
| 26/04 | Once Caldas Colombia Primera A |
0-1 | 2-2 | 4 | 9 | D |
| 19/04 | Fortaleza CEIF Colombia Primera A |
0-1 | 0-2 | 2 | 5 | L |
| 11/04 | Junior Colombia Primera A |
0-2 | 0-3 | 8 | 5 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Atletico Nacional Medellin vs Aguilas Doradas?
According to our model, the most likely result is a Atletico Nacional Medellin win (68%). Probabilities: Atletico Nacional Medellin 68%, draw 20%, Aguilas Doradas 12%.
How many goals are expected in Atletico Nacional Medellin vs Aguilas Doradas?
The model expects 3.15 goals (Atletico Nacional Medellin 2.28 · Aguilas Doradas 0.88), with a 52% chance of over 2.75 goals.
Will both teams score in Atletico Nacional Medellin vs Aguilas Doradas?
The model gives a 53% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 2-0.