Football · Colombia Primera A · 23/09, 03:00

Prediction: Independiente Santa Fe vs Deportivo Cali

Team pages: Independiente Santa Fe · Deportivo Cali

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.17Total

Independiente Santa Fe1.27

Deportivo Cali0.9

1X2

44% 30% 26%

Independiente Santa Fe Draw Deportivo Cali

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 63% Not both to score 51%

Most likely score

1-1 14%

Recent form · 10 last

Independiente Santa Fe 4-5-1 (W-D-L)

DLDWDDWDWW

Deportivo Cali 4-4-2 (W-D-L)

DWLWDLDDWW

Head-to-head

Independiente Santa Fe 4–2–0 Deportivo Cali (6 last)

Deportivo Cali1-1Independiente Santa Fe
Independiente Santa Fe1-0Deportivo Cali
Deportivo Cali0-2Independiente Santa Fe
Deportivo Cali1-3Independiente Santa Fe
Independiente Santa Fe1-0Deportivo Cali
Deportivo Cali2-2Independiente Santa Fe

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Independiente Santa Fe 1542 · Deportivo Cali 1519

	Independiente Santa Fe	Draw	Deportivo Cali
Our model	44%	31%	25%
Market	45%	29%	26%

Estimated total (ours) 2.17 goals · Bet365 line 2 · +0.2

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 67%model estimate

Match keys

H2H favours Independiente Santa Fe: 4-2-0.
Cards-heavy: 10.3 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Independiente Santa Fe	Deportivo Cali
Goals for / against (FT)	1.6 / 1	1.5 / 0.9
Goals for / against (HT)	0.6 / 0.1	0.6 / 0.3
Half-time result (W/D/L)	30/70/0%	50/30/20%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.1 / 4.5	1.7 / 2.9
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.4 / 0.1	5.9 / 0.4

Odds Bet365

12.10

X3.20

23.60

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.25)1.82

2 (+0.25)1.98

Line ⓘ

Over 21.80

Under 22.00

Diff.: 0.5 · xG: 2.5

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 06:25

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.10 → 2.10	Pinn 2.17 ★
X	3.20 → 3.20	Bet365 3.20
2	3.60 → 3.60	Pinn 3.65

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 6.6% Pinnacle margin 6.3%

Time*	1	X	2
06:18 +7’	2.10	3.20	3.60

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
01:13 +40’	2.14	3.02	3.61
02:16 +69’	2.17▲	3.05▲	3.65▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Independiente Santa Fe 4–2–0 Deportivo Cali

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Date	Home	Score	Away
19/03/26 Colombia Primera A	Deportivo Cali	1-1 HT 0-1	Independiente Santa Fe
10/11/25 Colombia Primera A	Independiente Santa Fe	1-0 HT 0-0	Deportivo Cali
18/05/25 Colombia Primera A	Deportivo Cali	0-2 HT 0-1	Independiente Santa Fe
21/08/24 Colombia Primera A	Deportivo Cali	1-3 HT 1-2	Independiente Santa Fe
14/02/24 Colombia Primera A	Independiente Santa Fe	1-0 HT 0-0	Deportivo Cali
07/09/23 Colombia Primera A	Deportivo Cali	2-2 HT 1-1	Independiente Santa Fe

Standings · Colombia Primera A · Finalizacion

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	America de Cali	9	6	2	1	20	5	20
2	Millonarios	11	5	4	2	15	8	19
3	Atletico Nacional Medellin	7	6	0	1	17	6	18
4	Independiente Santa Fe	9	4	4	1	16	10	16
5	Independiente Medellin	8	5	1	2	15	10	16
6	Deportes Tolima	9	5	1	3	12	10	16
7	Deportivo Cali	9	4	3	2	14	8	15
8	Atletico Bucaramanga	8	3	5	0	12	8	14
9	Once Caldas	10	3	3	4	13	12	12
10	Aguilas Doradas	8	2	5	1	12	12	11
11	Llaneros	9	3	2	4	11	12	11
12	Internacional de Bogota	10	2	5	3	13	15	11
13	Cucuta Deportivo	10	2	3	5	9	18	9
14	Fortaleza CEIF	9	1	5	3	10	12	8
15	Deportivo Pasto	10	2	2	6	9	15	8
16	Alianza	10	2	2	6	9	20	8
17	Boyaca Chico	9	2	2	5	7	18	8
18	Jaguares de Cordoba	8	1	4	3	9	14	7
19	Deportivo Pereira	8	1	4	3	6	11	7
20	Junior	7	0	3	4	8	13	3

Common opponents 3 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Independiente Santa Fe	Deportivo Cali
Deportes Tolima	1-0 W	1-1 D
Millonarios	3-2 W	1-1 D
Once Caldas	2-2 D	2-1 W
Record vs common	2 W 1 D 0 L	1 W 2 D 0 L

Better against common opponents: Independiente Santa Fe (2 of 3 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Independiente Santa Fe

DLDWDDWDWW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
19/09	Alianza Colombia Primera A	2-0	4-1	6	5	W
12/09	Deportes Tolima Colombia Primera A	0-0	1-0	5	5	W
06/09	Fortaleza CEIF Colombia Primera A	2-0	2-2	4	4	D
03/09	Millonarios Colombia Primera A	1-1	3-2	7	8	W
30/08	Junior Colombia Primera A	0-0	1-1	5	4	D
23/08	America de Cali Colombia Primera A	0-0	0-0	9	4	D
08/08	Boyaca Chico Colombia Primera A	0-0	2-0	2	2	W
03/08	Once Caldas Colombia Primera A	1-0	2-2	3	3	D
26/07	Aguilas Doradas Colombia Primera A	0-0	1-2	1	5	L
24/05	Junior Colombia Primera A	0-0	0-0	3	5	D

Deportivo Cali

DWLWDLDDWW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
20/09	Cucuta Deportivo Colombia Primera A	1-0	3-0	5	5	W
14/09	Once Caldas Colombia Primera A	1-0	2-1	0	4	W
11/09	Millonarios Colombia Primera A	1-0	1-1	3	10	D
31/08	Atletico Bucaramanga Colombia Primera A	0-0	1-1	1	8	D
27/08	Atletico Nacional Medellin Colombia Primera A	0-1	1-2	2	8	L
24/08	Internacional de Bogota Colombia Primera A	2-1	2-2	4	1	D
09/08	Deportivo Pasto Colombia Primera A	1-0	2-0	3	8	W
02/08	Independiente Medellin Colombia Primera A	0-0	0-1	2	4	L
25/07	Jaguares de Cordoba Colombia Primera A	0-0	2-0	6	7	W
03/05	Deportes Tolima Colombia Primera A	0-1	1-1	3	8	D

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Independiente Santa Fe vs Deportivo Cali?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Independiente Santa Fe win (44%). Probabilities: Independiente Santa Fe 44%, draw 30%, Deportivo Cali 26%.

How many goals are expected in Independiente Santa Fe vs Deportivo Cali?

The model expects 2.17 goals (Independiente Santa Fe 1.27 · Deportivo Cali 0.9), with a 52% chance of over 2 goals.

Will both teams score in Independiente Santa Fe vs Deportivo Cali?

The model gives a 51% chance that not both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.