Football · Colombia Primera A · 25/09, 02:30

Prediction: Atletico Nacional Medellin vs Millonarios

Team pages: Atletico Nacional Medellin · Millonarios

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.56Total

Atletico Nacional Medellin1.63

Millonarios0.93

1X2

53% 27% 20%

Atletico Nacional Medellin Draw Millonarios

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 51% Both teams to score 52%

Most likely score

1-1 13%

Recent form · 10 last

Atletico Nacional Medellin 8-0-2 (W-D-L)

WLWWLWWWWW

Millonarios 5-4-1 (W-D-L)

WWDWDLDDWW

Head-to-head

Atletico Nacional Medellin 1–2–3 Millonarios (6 last)

Millonarios3-0Atletico Nacional Medellin
Atletico Nacional Medellin1-3Millonarios
Atletico Nacional Medellin2-0Millonarios
Atletico Nacional Medellin0-1Millonarios
Millonarios0-0Atletico Nacional Medellin
Millonarios0-0Atletico Nacional Medellin

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 57%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Atletico Nacional Medellin (rating 1606 vs 1555).
H2H favours Millonarios: 3-2-1.
High corners: 13.2 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 10.7 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Atletico Nacional Medellin	Millonarios
Goals for / against (FT)	2.1 / 1	1.5 / 0.7
Goals for / against (HT)	0.8 / 0.5	0.4 / 0.2
Half-time result (W/D/L)	30/50/20%	30/60/10%
Corners (HT / FT)	3.7 / 7.3	2.5 / 5.9
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.7 / 0.4	6 / 0.2

Odds Bet365

Line ⓘ

Over 2.51.89

Under 2.51.89

Diff.: 0.15 · xG: 2.65

Market movement

Match winner · 2 moves · last 05:05

	Pinnacle	Best now
1	1.83 → 1.86▲	Pinn 1.86
X	3.43 → 3.48▲	Pinn 3.48
2	4.12 → 4.19▲	Pinn 4.19

See the full journey (2)

Pinnacle margin 6.3%

Time*	1	X	2
03:28 +34’	1.83	3.43	4.12
04:31 +33’	1.86▲	3.48▲	4.19▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Atletico Nacional Medellin 1–2–3 Millonarios

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Date	Home	Score	Away
18/03/26 Colombia Primera A	Millonarios	3-0 HT 1-0	Atletico Nacional Medellin
05/03/26 Copa Sudamericana	Atletico Nacional Medellin	1-3 HT 1-2	Millonarios
28/09/25 Colombia Primera A	Atletico Nacional Medellin	2-0 HT 0-0	Millonarios
17/06/25 Colombia Primera A	Atletico Nacional Medellin	0-1 HT 0-1	Millonarios
06/06/25 Colombia Primera A	Millonarios	0-0 HT 0-0	Atletico Nacional Medellin
14/04/25 Colombia Primera A	Millonarios	0-0 HT 0-0	Atletico Nacional Medellin

Standings · Colombia Primera A · Finalizacion

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	America de Cali	9	6	2	1	20	5	20
2	Millonarios	11	5	4	2	15	8	19
3	Atletico Nacional Medellin	7	6	0	1	17	6	18
4	Atletico Bucaramanga	9	4	5	0	14	8	17
5	Independiente Santa Fe	9	4	4	1	16	10	16
6	Independiente Medellin	8	5	1	2	15	10	16
7	Deportes Tolima	9	5	1	3	12	10	16
8	Deportivo Cali	9	4	3	2	14	8	15
9	Once Caldas	10	3	3	4	13	12	12
10	Aguilas Doradas	8	2	5	1	12	12	11
11	Llaneros	9	3	2	4	11	12	11
12	Internacional de Bogota	11	2	5	4	13	17	11
13	Cucuta Deportivo	10	2	3	5	9	18	9
14	Fortaleza CEIF	10	1	5	4	11	16	8
15	Deportivo Pasto	10	2	2	6	9	15	8
16	Alianza	10	2	2	6	9	20	8
17	Boyaca Chico	9	2	2	5	7	18	8
18	Jaguares de Cordoba	8	1	4	3	9	14	7
19	Deportivo Pereira	8	1	4	3	6	11	7
20	Junior	8	1	3	4	12	14	6

Common opponents 4 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Atletico Nacional Medellin	Millonarios
Internacional de Bogota	3-2 W	0-0 D
Aguilas Doradas	2-0 W	1-1 D
Deportivo Cali	2-1 W	1-1 D
Junior	1-0 W	1-0 W
Record vs common	4 W 0 D 0 L	1 W 3 D 0 L

Better against common opponents: Atletico Nacional Medellin (3 of 4 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Atletico Nacional Medellin

WLWWLWWWWW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
17/09	Internacional de Bogota Colombia Primera A	1-1	3-2	9	3	W
13/09	Aguilas Doradas Colombia Primera A	0-0	2-0	8	3	W
30/08	Alianza Colombia Primera A	3-1	5-1	6	5	W
27/08	Deportivo Cali Colombia Primera A	1-0	2-1	3	8	W
23/08	Fortaleza CEIF Colombia Primera A	0-1	2-1	7	5	W
10/08	America de Cali Colombia Primera A	0-0	0-1	13	7	L
02/08	Jaguares de Cordoba Colombia Primera A	3-0	3-0	4	3	W
09/06	Junior Colombia Primera A	0-0	1-0	13	6	W
03/06	Junior Colombia Primera A	0-2	0-3	3	8	L
24/05	Deportes Tolima Colombia Primera A	0-0	3-1	7	3	W

Millonarios

WWDWDLDDWW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
19/09	Boyaca Chico Colombia Primera A	1-0	3-0	6	4	W
14/09	Cucuta Deportivo Colombia Primera A	0-0	2-1	5	2	W
11/09	Deportivo Cali Colombia Primera A	0-1	1-1	7	10	D
07/09	Deportivo Pereira Colombia Primera A	0-0	1-1	3	3	D
03/09	Independiente Santa Fe Colombia Primera A	1-1	2-3	8	8	L
31/08	Internacional de Bogota Colombia Primera A	0-0	0-0	7	5	D
28/08	Llaneros Colombia Primera A	1-0	2-0	5	7	W
22/08	Aguilas Doradas Colombia Primera A	0-0	1-1	3	10	D
05/08	Deportivo Pasto Colombia Primera A	1-0	2-0	8	7	W
02/08	Junior Colombia Primera A	0-0	1-0	7	6	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Atletico Nacional Medellin vs Millonarios?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Atletico Nacional Medellin win (53%). Probabilities: Atletico Nacional Medellin 53%, draw 27%, Millonarios 20%.

How many goals are expected in Atletico Nacional Medellin vs Millonarios?

The model expects 2.56 goals (Atletico Nacional Medellin 1.63 · Millonarios 0.93), with a 51% chance of under 2.5 goals.

Will both teams score in Atletico Nacional Medellin vs Millonarios?

The model gives a 52% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.