Football · Colombia Primera A · 23/09, 01:00
Prediction: Independiente Medellin vs Jaguares de Cordoba
Team pages: Independiente Medellin · Jaguares de Cordoba
Prediction summary
Expected goals
3.06Total
Independiente Medellin2.28
Jaguares de Cordoba0.78
1X2
Independiente Medellin
Draw
Jaguares de Cordoba
Markets
Under 3.5 goals 63%
Both teams to score 52%
Most likely score
2-0 12%
Recent form · 10 last
Independiente Medellin
6-1-3 (W-D-L)
Jaguares de Cordoba
2-5-3 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Independiente Medellin
3–3–0
Jaguares de Cordoba
(6 last)
- Jaguares de Cordoba1-2Independiente Medellin
- Jaguares de Cordoba0-1Independiente Medellin
- Independiente Medellin1-1Jaguares de Cordoba
- Independiente Medellin4-1Jaguares de Cordoba
- Jaguares de Cordoba2-2Independiente Medellin
- Jaguares de Cordoba1-1Independiente Medellin
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Independiente Medellin 1544 · Jaguares de Cordoba 1473
| Independiente Medellin | Draw | Jaguares de Cordoba | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 71% | 19% | 10% |
| Market | 71% | 19% | 10% |
Estimated total (ours)
3.06 goals · Bet365 line 2.75 · +0.3
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 62%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Independiente Medellin (rating 1544 vs 1473).
- H2H favours Independiente Medellin: 3-3-0.
- Cards-heavy: 10.6 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Independiente Medellin | Jaguares de Cordoba | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1.7 / 1.2 | 1.3 / 1.6 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.8 / 0.8 | 0.5 / 0.7 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 20/50/30% | 20/60/20% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 1.9 / 4.6 | 2.1 / 3.7 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 5 / 0.4 | 5.6 / 0.1 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Independiente Medellin 3–3–0 Jaguares de Cordoba
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 16/03/26 Colombia Primera A | Jaguares de Cordoba | 1-2 HT 1-0 | Independiente Medellin |
| 08/08/25 Colombia Cup | Jaguares de Cordoba | 0-1 HT 0-1 | Independiente Medellin |
| 01/08/25 Colombia Cup | Independiente Medellin | 1-1 HT 0-0 | Jaguares de Cordoba |
| 29/10/24 Colombia Primera A | Independiente Medellin | 4-1 HT 2-0 | Jaguares de Cordoba |
| 08/04/24 Colombia Primera A | Jaguares de Cordoba | 2-2 HT 1-0 | Independiente Medellin |
| 02/09/23 Colombia Primera A | Jaguares de Cordoba | 1-1 HT 1-0 | Independiente Medellin |
Standings · Colombia Primera A · Finalizacion
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | America de Cali | 9 | 6 | 2 | 1 | 20 | 5 | 20 |
| 2 | Millonarios | 11 | 5 | 4 | 2 | 15 | 8 | 19 |
| 3 | Atletico Nacional Medellin | 7 | 6 | 0 | 1 | 17 | 6 | 18 |
| 4 | Independiente Santa Fe | 9 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 16 | 10 | 16 |
| 5 | Independiente Medellin | 8 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 15 | 10 | 16 |
| 6 | Deportes Tolima | 9 | 5 | 1 | 3 | 12 | 10 | 16 |
| 7 | Deportivo Cali | 9 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 14 | 8 | 15 |
| 8 | Atletico Bucaramanga | 8 | 3 | 5 | 0 | 12 | 8 | 14 |
| 9 | Once Caldas | 10 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 13 | 12 | 12 |
| 10 | Aguilas Doradas | 8 | 2 | 5 | 1 | 12 | 12 | 11 |
| 11 | Llaneros | 9 | 3 | 2 | 4 | 11 | 12 | 11 |
| 12 | Internacional de Bogota | 10 | 2 | 5 | 3 | 13 | 15 | 11 |
| 13 | Cucuta Deportivo | 10 | 2 | 3 | 5 | 9 | 18 | 9 |
| 14 | Fortaleza CEIF | 9 | 1 | 5 | 3 | 10 | 12 | 8 |
| 15 | Deportivo Pasto | 10 | 2 | 2 | 6 | 9 | 15 | 8 |
| 16 | Alianza | 10 | 2 | 2 | 6 | 9 | 20 | 8 |
| 17 | Boyaca Chico | 9 | 2 | 2 | 5 | 7 | 18 | 8 |
| 18 | Jaguares de Cordoba | 8 | 1 | 4 | 3 | 9 | 14 | 7 |
| 19 | Deportivo Pereira | 8 | 1 | 4 | 3 | 6 | 11 | 7 |
| 20 | Junior | 7 | 0 | 3 | 4 | 8 | 13 | 3 |
Common opponents 5 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Independiente Medellin | Jaguares de Cordoba |
|---|---|---|
| Atletico Bucaramanga | 2-2 D | 2-2 D |
| Boyaca Chico | 1-2 L | 1-0 W |
| Cucuta Deportivo | 0-1 L | 2-0 W |
| Deportivo Cali | 1-0 W | 0-2 L |
| Fortaleza CEIF | 1-0 W | 2-2 D |
| Record vs common | 2 W 1 D 2 L | 2 W 2 D 1 L |
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Independiente Medellin
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18/09 | Atletico Bucaramanga Colombia Primera A |
1-2 | 2-2 | 8 | 6 | D |
| 13/09 | Boyaca Chico Colombia Primera A |
1-1 | 1-2 | 1 | 5 | L |
| 04/09 | Deportivo Pereira Colombia Primera A |
0-0 | 3-0 | 4 | 6 | W |
| 30/08 | Llaneros Colombia Primera A |
2-1 | 2-1 | 2 | 8 | W |
| 23/08 | Cucuta Deportivo Colombia Primera A |
0-1 | 0-1 | 6 | 2 | L |
| 05/08 | Deportes Tolima Colombia Primera A |
2-0 | 3-2 | 2 | 5 | W |
| 02/08 | Deportivo Cali Colombia Primera A |
0-0 | 1-0 | 3 | 4 | W |
| 25/07 | Deportivo Pasto Colombia Primera A |
2-2 | 3-2 | 4 | 7 | W |
| 03/05 | Aguilas Doradas Colombia Primera A |
0-1 | 1-2 | 10 | 8 | L |
| 26/04 | Fortaleza CEIF Colombia Primera A |
0-0 | 1-0 | 6 | 3 | W |
Jaguares de Cordoba
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12/09 | Fortaleza CEIF Colombia Primera A |
0-1 | 2-2 | 5 | 4 | D |
| 06/09 | Junior Colombia Primera A |
1-1 | 3-3 | 5 | 6 | D |
| 29/08 | America de Cali Colombia Primera A |
2-1 | 2-2 | 3 | 7 | D |
| 21/08 | Boyaca Chico Colombia Primera A |
1-0 | 1-0 | 4 | 10 | W |
| 10/08 | Once Caldas Colombia Primera A |
0-0 | 1-1 | 2 | 8 | D |
| 06/08 | Internacional de Bogota Colombia Primera A |
0-0 | 0-1 | 1 | 2 | L |
| 02/08 | Atletico Nacional Medellin Colombia Primera A |
0-3 | 0-3 | 8 | 3 | L |
| 25/07 | Deportivo Cali Colombia Primera A |
0-0 | 0-2 | 3 | 7 | L |
| 02/05 | Cucuta Deportivo Colombia Primera A |
0-0 | 2-0 | 6 | 6 | W |
| 25/04 | Atletico Bucaramanga Colombia Primera A |
1-1 | 2-2 | 0 | 4 | D |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Independiente Medellin vs Jaguares de Cordoba?
According to our model, the most likely result is a Independiente Medellin win (71%). Probabilities: Independiente Medellin 71%, draw 19%, Jaguares de Cordoba 10%.
How many goals are expected in Independiente Medellin vs Jaguares de Cordoba?
The model expects 3.06 goals (Independiente Medellin 2.28 · Jaguares de Cordoba 0.78), with a 53% chance of over 2.75 goals.
Will both teams score in Independiente Medellin vs Jaguares de Cordoba?
The model gives a 52% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 2-0.