Football · Japan Women Empowerment League · 21/10, 11:30

Prediction: Nojima (W) vs Albirex Niigata (W)

Team pages: Nojima (W) · Albirex Niigata (W)

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.53Total

Nojima (W)1.2

Albirex Niigata (W)1.32

1X2

33% 28% 39%

Nojima (W) Draw Albirex Niigata (W)

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 53% Both teams to score 53%

Most likely score

1-1 14%

Recent form · 10 last

Nojima (W) 5-1-4 (W-D-L)

LWWLWWWLLD

Albirex Niigata (W) 2-5-3 (W-D-L)

DDWDLLDWLD

Head-to-head

Nojima (W) 3–3 Albirex Niigata (W) (6 last)

Albirex Niigata (W)0-2Nojima (W)
Nojima (W)1-0Albirex Niigata (W)
Albirex Niigata (W)1-0Nojima (W)
Nojima (W)1-0Albirex Niigata (W)
Albirex Niigata (W)1-0Nojima (W)
Nojima (W)0-2Albirex Niigata (W)

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Nojima (W) 1532 · Albirex Niigata (W) 1452

	Nojima (W)	Draw	Albirex Niigata (W)
Our model	32%	29%	38%
Market	33%	28%	39%

Estimated total (ours) 2.53 goals · Bet365 line 2.5

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 51%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Nojima (W) (rating 1532 vs 1452).

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Nojima (W)	Albirex Niigata (W)
Goals for / against (FT)	1.7 / 1.5	1.1 / 1.3
Goals for / against (HT)	1 / 0.6	0.5 / 0.5
Half-time result (W/D/L)	60/10/30%	30/50/20%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.1 / 3.6	1.9 / 5.1
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	0.5 / 0	1.3 / 0

Odds Bet365

12.70

X3.25

22.30

Handicap ⓘ

1 (0)2.02

2 (0)1.77

Line ⓘ

Over 2.52.02

Under 2.51.77

Diff.: 0.3 · xG: 2.8

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 09:02

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.70 → 2.70	Bet365 2.70
X	3.25 → 3.25	Bet365 3.25
2	2.30 → 2.30	Bet365 2.30

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.3%

Time*	1	X	2
09:00 +2’	2.70	3.25	2.30

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Nojima (W) 3–0–3 Albirex Niigata (W)

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Date	Home	Score	Away
09/05/26 Japan Women Empowerment League	Albirex Niigata (W)	0-2 HT 0-2	Nojima (W)
22/03/26 Japan League Cup Women	Nojima (W)	1-0 HT 1-0	Albirex Niigata (W)
14/03/26 Japan League Cup Women	Albirex Niigata (W)	1-0 HT 1-0	Nojima (W)
05/10/25 Japan Women Empowerment League	Nojima (W)	1-0 HT 0-0	Albirex Niigata (W)
30/03/25 Japan Women Empowerment League	Albirex Niigata (W)	1-0 HT 1-0	Nojima (W)
30/11/24 Japan Women Empowerment League	Nojima (W)	0-2 HT 0-0	Albirex Niigata (W)

Standings · Japan Women Empowerment League

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	INAC Leonessa (W)	5	3	1	1	13	9	10
2	Urawa Red Diamonds (W)	4	3	0	1	10	4	9
3	Nippon TV Tokyo Verdy Beleza (W)	4	3	0	1	10	7	9
4	Chifure AS Elfen Saitama (W)	4	2	1	1	4	2	7
5	Sanfrecce Hiroshima (W)	4	2	0	2	6	5	6
6	JEF Utd Chiba (W)	4	2	0	2	6	6	6
7	Cerezo Osaka (W)	4	1	2	1	6	5	5
8	Albirex Niigata (W)	4	1	2	1	5	5	5
9	Nojima (W)	4	1	1	2	5	11	4
10	Mynavi Sendai (W)	4	1	0	3	7	10	3
11	AC Nagano Parceiro (W)	5	0	3	2	4	8	3
12	Omiya Ardija (W)	4	1	0	3	2	6	3

Common opponents 4 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Nojima (W)	Albirex Niigata (W)
Cerezo Osaka (W)	2-2 D	1-1 D
Chifure AS Elfen Saitama (W)	1-0 W	2-1 W
Omiya Ardija (W)	4-0 W	1-2 L
AC Nagano Parceiro (W)	2-0 W	0-0 D
Record vs common	3 W 1 D 0 L	1 W 2 D 1 L

Better against common opponents: Nojima (W) (2 of 4 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Nojima (W)

LWWLWWWLLD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
18/10	Cerezo Osaka (W) Japan Women Empowerment League	1-2	2-2	3	1	D
06/09	INAC Leonessa (W) Japan Women Empowerment League	1-0	1-4	3	0	L
30/08	Urawa Red Diamonds (W) Japan Women Empowerment League	1-1	1-5	1	0	L
22/08	Chifure AS Elfen Saitama (W) Japan Women Empowerment League	1-0	1-0	8	0	W
16/05	Omiya Ardija (W) Japan Women Empowerment League	2-0	4-0	3	1	W
09/05	Albirex Niigata (W) Japan Women Empowerment League	2-0	2-0	6	1	W
02/05	Chifure AS Elfen Saitama (W) Japan Women Empowerment League	0-1	1-2	4	1	L
26/04	Cerezo Osaka (W) Japan Women Empowerment League	1-0	3-0	3	0	W
04/04	AC Nagano Parceiro (W) Japan Women Empowerment League	1-0	2-0	1	0	W
29/03	Urawa Red Diamonds (W) Japan Women Empowerment League	0-2	0-2	4	1	L

Albirex Niigata (W)

DDWDLLDWLD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
17/10	AC Nagano Parceiro (W) Japan Women Empowerment League	0-0	0-0	5	2	D
05/09	Omiya Ardija (W) Japan Women Empowerment League	1-0	1-2	7	0	L
30/08	Mynavi Sendai (W) Japan Women Empowerment League	1-1	3-2	3	1	W
23/08	Cerezo Osaka (W) Japan Women Empowerment League	1-0	1-1	6	2	D
16/05	Nippon TV Tokyo Verdy Beleza (W) Japan Women Empowerment League	0-0	1-2	3	1	L
09/05	Nojima (W) Japan Women Empowerment League	0-2	0-2	1	1	L
02/05	Omiya Ardija (W) Japan Women Empowerment League	0-0	0-0	8	1	D
26/04	Chifure AS Elfen Saitama (W) Japan Women Empowerment League	1-1	2-1	9	1	W
05/04	Sanfrecce Hiroshima (W) Japan Women Empowerment League	1-0	1-1	2	1	D
28/03	AC Nagano Parceiro (W) Japan Women Empowerment League	0-1	2-2	7	3	D

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Nojima (W) vs Albirex Niigata (W)?

According to our model, the most likely result is an Albirex Niigata (W) win (39%). Probabilities: Nojima (W) 33%, draw 28%, Albirex Niigata (W) 39%.

How many goals are expected in Nojima (W) vs Albirex Niigata (W)?

The model expects 2.53 goals (Nojima (W) 1.2 · Albirex Niigata (W) 1.32), with a 53% chance of under 2.5 goals.

Will both teams score in Nojima (W) vs Albirex Niigata (W)?

The model gives a 53% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.