Football · Japan Women Empowerment League · 25/10, 06:00

Prediction: Sanfrecce Hiroshima (W) vs AC Nagano Parceiro (W)

Team pages: Sanfrecce Hiroshima (W) · AC Nagano Parceiro (W)

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.63Total

Sanfrecce Hiroshima (W)1.89

AC Nagano Parceiro (W)0.74

1X2

65% 21% 14%

Sanfrecce Hiroshima (W) Draw AC Nagano Parceiro (W)

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 51% Both teams to score 50%

Most likely score

2-0 13%

Recent form · 10 last

Sanfrecce Hiroshima (W) 6-2-2 (W-D-L)

WDWWDWLWWL

AC Nagano Parceiro (W) 0-4-6 (W-D-L)

LLLLDLLDDD

Head-to-head

Sanfrecce Hiroshima (W) 5–1 AC Nagano Parceiro (W) (6 last)

Sanfrecce Hiroshima (W)3-0AC Nagano Parceiro (W)
AC Nagano Parceiro (W)1-5Sanfrecce Hiroshima (W)
Sanfrecce Hiroshima (W)1-0AC Nagano Parceiro (W)
Sanfrecce Hiroshima (W)1-0AC Nagano Parceiro (W)
AC Nagano Parceiro (W)1-0Sanfrecce Hiroshima (W)
Sanfrecce Hiroshima (W)2-1AC Nagano Parceiro (W)

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Sanfrecce Hiroshima (W) 1540 · AC Nagano Parceiro (W) 1380

	Sanfrecce Hiroshima (W)	Draw	AC Nagano Parceiro (W)
Our model	64%	23%	13%
Market	66%	19%	15%

Estimated total (ours) 2.63 goals · Bet365 line 3 · -0.4

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 51%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Sanfrecce Hiroshima (W) (rating 1540 vs 1380).
H2H favours Sanfrecce Hiroshima (W): 5-0-1.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Sanfrecce Hiroshima (W)	AC Nagano Parceiro (W)
Goals for / against (FT)	1.6 / 0.7	0.7 / 2.2
Goals for / against (HT)	0.7 / 0.3	0.6 / 0.8
Half-time result (W/D/L)	33/56/11%	20/50/30%
Corners (HT / FT)	3 / 5.7	2.2 / 4.5
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	0.6 / 0	1.1 / 0

Odds Bet365

11.36

X4.75

26.00

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-1.25)1.80

2 (+1.25)2.00

Line ⓘ

Over 31.95

Under 31.85

Diff.: 0.4 · xG: 2.6

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 13:40

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.36 → 1.36	Bet365 1.36
X	4.75 → 4.75	Bet365 4.75
2	6.00 → 6.00	Bet365 6.00

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.1%

Time*	1	X	2
13:24 +16’	1.36	4.75	6.00

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · Sanfrecce Hiroshima (W) 5–0–1 AC Nagano Parceiro (W)

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Home	Score	Away
03/10/26 Japan League Cup Women	Sanfrecce Hiroshima (W)	3-0 HT 0-0	AC Nagano Parceiro (W)
25/04/26 Japan Women Empowerment League	AC Nagano Parceiro (W)	1-5 HT 1-1	Sanfrecce Hiroshima (W)
13/10/25 Japan Women Empowerment League	Sanfrecce Hiroshima (W)	1-0 HT 1-0	AC Nagano Parceiro (W)
29/03/25 Japan Women Empowerment League	Sanfrecce Hiroshima (W)	1-0	AC Nagano Parceiro (W)
23/11/24 Japan Women Empowerment League	AC Nagano Parceiro (W)	1-0 HT 1-0	Sanfrecce Hiroshima (W)
26/10/24 Japan League Cup Women	Sanfrecce Hiroshima (W)	2-1 HT 2-1	AC Nagano Parceiro (W)

Standings · Japan Women Empowerment League

Swipe the table sideways →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	INAC Leonessa (W)	6	3	1	2	14	11	10
2	Urawa Red Diamonds (W)	4	3	0	1	10	4	9
3	Nippon TV Tokyo Verdy Beleza (W)	4	3	0	1	10	7	9
4	JEF Utd Chiba (W)	5	3	0	2	8	7	9
5	Chifure AS Elfen Saitama (W)	5	2	1	2	5	4	7
6	Nojima (W)	5	2	1	2	6	11	7
7	Sanfrecce Hiroshima (W)	4	2	0	2	6	5	6
8	Mynavi Sendai (W)	5	2	0	3	9	11	6
9	Cerezo Osaka (W)	4	1	2	1	6	5	5
10	Albirex Niigata (W)	5	1	2	2	5	6	5
11	AC Nagano Parceiro (W)	5	0	3	2	4	8	3
12	Omiya Ardija (W)	4	1	0	3	2	6	3

Common opponents 5 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Sanfrecce Hiroshima (W)	AC Nagano Parceiro (W)
Nippon TV Tokyo Verdy Beleza (W)	2-3 L	1-4 L
Cerezo Osaka (W)	1-0 W	1-1 D
INAC Leonessa (W)	1-2 L	2-2 D
Albirex Niigata (W)	1-1 D	0-0 D
Chifure AS Elfen Saitama (W)	1-0 W	0-0 D
Record vs common	2 W 1 D 2 L	0 W 4 D 1 L

Better against common opponents: Sanfrecce Hiroshima (W) (3 of 5 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Sanfrecce Hiroshima (W)

WDWWDWLWWL

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
18/10	Nippon TV Tokyo Verdy Beleza (W) Japan Women Empowerment League	1-1	2-3	5	0	L
05/09	Cerezo Osaka (W) Japan Women Empowerment League	0-0	1-0	6	0	W
29/08	Omiya Ardija (W) Japan Women Empowerment League	1-0	2-0	10	0	W
22/08	INAC Leonessa (W) Japan Women Empowerment League	1-0	1-2	4	1	L
16/05	INAC Leonessa (W) Japan Women Empowerment League	–	1-0	–	–	W
10/05	Cerezo Osaka (W) Japan Women Empowerment League	0-0	0-0	7	0	D
03/05	Nippon TV Tokyo Verdy Beleza (W) Japan Women Empowerment League	2-0	2-0	2	1	W
25/04	AC Nagano Parceiro (W) Japan Women Empowerment League	1-1	5-1	4	1	W
05/04	Albirex Niigata (W) Japan Women Empowerment League	0-1	1-1	7	1	D
28/03	Chifure AS Elfen Saitama (W) Japan Women Empowerment League	0-0	1-0	6	1	W

AC Nagano Parceiro (W)

LLLLDLLDDD

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
17/10	Albirex Niigata (W) Japan Women Empowerment League	0-0	0-0	4	2	D
05/09	Chifure AS Elfen Saitama (W) Japan Women Empowerment League	0-0	0-0	7	1	D
02/09	INAC Leonessa (W) Japan Women Empowerment League	2-1	2-2	3	1	D
29/08	Nippon TV Tokyo Verdy Beleza (W) Japan Women Empowerment League	1-1	1-4	1	0	L
23/08	Mynavi Sendai (W) Japan Women Empowerment League	1-1	1-2	10	1	L
16/05	Cerezo Osaka (W) Japan Women Empowerment League	1-0	1-1	4	3	D
10/05	Mynavi Sendai (W) Japan Women Empowerment League	0-1	0-1	6	1	L
03/05	INAC Leonessa (W) Japan Women Empowerment League	0-2	1-5	3	1	L
25/04	Sanfrecce Hiroshima (W) Japan Women Empowerment League	1-1	1-5	2	1	L
04/04	Nojima (W) Japan Women Empowerment League	0-1	0-2	5	0	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Sanfrecce Hiroshima (W) vs AC Nagano Parceiro (W)?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Sanfrecce Hiroshima (W) win (65%). Probabilities: Sanfrecce Hiroshima (W) 65%, draw 21%, AC Nagano Parceiro (W) 14%.

How many goals are expected in Sanfrecce Hiroshima (W) vs AC Nagano Parceiro (W)?

The model expects 2.63 goals (Sanfrecce Hiroshima (W) 1.89 · AC Nagano Parceiro (W) 0.74), with a 58% chance of under 3 goals.

Will both teams score in Sanfrecce Hiroshima (W) vs AC Nagano Parceiro (W)?

The model gives a 50% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 2-0.