Football · Japan Women Empowerment League · 28/10, 10:00
Prediction: Nippon TV Tokyo Verdy Beleza (W) vs Cerezo Osaka (W)
Team pages: Nippon TV Tokyo Verdy Beleza (W) · Cerezo Osaka (W)
Prediction summary
Expected goals
3.29Total
Nippon TV Tokyo Verdy Beleza (W)2.13
Cerezo Osaka (W)1.16
1X2
Nippon TV Tokyo Verdy Beleza (W)
Draw
Cerezo Osaka (W)
Markets
Under 3.5 goals 58%
Both teams to score 56%
Most likely score
1-1 10%
Recent form · 10 last
Nippon TV Tokyo Verdy Beleza (W)
6-0-4 (W-D-L)
Cerezo Osaka (W)
3-4-3 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Nippon TV Tokyo Verdy Beleza (W)
5–1–0
Cerezo Osaka (W)
(6 last)
- Cerezo Osaka (W)1-4Nippon TV Tokyo Verdy Beleza (W)
- Nippon TV Tokyo Verdy Beleza (W)2-1Cerezo Osaka (W)
- Cerezo Osaka (W)2-3Nippon TV Tokyo Verdy Beleza (W)
- Nippon TV Tokyo Verdy Beleza (W)2-1Cerezo Osaka (W)
- Cerezo Osaka (W)1-4Nippon TV Tokyo Verdy Beleza (W)
- Cerezo Osaka (W)1-1Nippon TV Tokyo Verdy Beleza (W)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Nippon TV Tokyo Verdy Beleza (W) 1565 · Cerezo Osaka (W) 1494
| Nippon TV Tokyo Verdy Beleza (W) | Draw | Cerezo Osaka (W) | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 59% | 22% | 19% |
| Market | 59% | 22% | 19% |
Estimated total (ours)
3.29 goals · Bet365 line 2.75 · +0.5
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 64%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Nippon TV Tokyo Verdy Beleza (W) (rating 1565 vs 1494).
- H2H favours Nippon TV Tokyo Verdy Beleza (W): 5-1-0.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Nippon TV Tokyo Verdy Beleza (W) | Cerezo Osaka (W) | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1.7 / 1.3 | 1.2 / 1.3 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.7 / 0.9 | 0.6 / 0.4 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 10/60/30% | 33/33/33% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 2.7 / 5.9 | 1.9 / 4.3 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 0.6 / 0 | 1.2 / 0 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Nippon TV Tokyo Verdy Beleza (W) 5–1–0 Cerezo Osaka (W)
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 27/09/26 Japan League Cup Women | Cerezo Osaka (W) | 1-4 HT 0-2 | Nippon TV Tokyo Verdy Beleza (W) |
| 02/11/25 Japan Women Empowerment League | Nippon TV Tokyo Verdy Beleza (W) | 2-1 HT 0-0 | Cerezo Osaka (W) |
| 15/09/25 Japan Women Empowerment League | Cerezo Osaka (W) | 2-3 HT 1-1 | Nippon TV Tokyo Verdy Beleza (W) |
| 29/03/25 Japan Women Empowerment League | Nippon TV Tokyo Verdy Beleza (W) | 2-1 HT 1-0 | Cerezo Osaka (W) |
| 05/10/24 Japan Women Empowerment League | Cerezo Osaka (W) | 1-4 HT 1-1 | Nippon TV Tokyo Verdy Beleza (W) |
| 21/04/24 Japan Women Empowerment League | Cerezo Osaka (W) | 1-1 HT 0-0 | Nippon TV Tokyo Verdy Beleza (W) |
Standings · Japan Women Empowerment League
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Urawa Red Diamonds (W) | 5 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 12 | 4 | 12 |
| 2 | Nippon TV Tokyo Verdy Beleza (W) | 5 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 14 | 8 | 12 |
| 3 | JEF Utd Chiba (W) | 6 | 4 | 0 | 2 | 9 | 7 | 12 |
| 4 | INAC Leonessa (W) | 7 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 14 | 13 | 10 |
| 5 | Sanfrecce Hiroshima (W) | 5 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 7 | 5 | 9 |
| 6 | Cerezo Osaka (W) | 5 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 8 | 6 | 8 |
| 7 | Nojima (W) | 6 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 6 | 11 | 8 |
| 8 | Mynavi Sendai (W) | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 9 | 11 | 7 |
| 9 | Chifure AS Elfen Saitama (W) | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 6 | 8 | 7 |
| 10 | Albirex Niigata (W) | 6 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 5 | 7 | 5 |
| 11 | AC Nagano Parceiro (W) | 6 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 9 | 3 |
| 12 | Omiya Ardija (W) | 5 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 3 | 8 | 3 |
Common opponents 5 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Nippon TV Tokyo Verdy Beleza (W) | Cerezo Osaka (W) |
|---|---|---|
| Sanfrecce Hiroshima (W) | 3-2 W | 0-1 L |
| Urawa Red Diamonds (W) | 1-3 L | 2-3 L |
| AC Nagano Parceiro (W) | 4-1 W | 1-1 D |
| JEF Utd Chiba (W) | 2-1 W | 3-1 W |
| Albirex Niigata (W) | 2-1 W | 1-1 D |
| Record vs common | 4 W 0 D 1 L | 1 W 2 D 2 L |
Better against common opponents: Nippon TV Tokyo Verdy Beleza (W) (3 of 5 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Nippon TV Tokyo Verdy Beleza (W)
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 24/10 | Chifure AS Elfen Saitama (W) Japan Women Empowerment League |
3-0 | 4-1 | 5 | 1 | W |
| 18/10 | Sanfrecce Hiroshima (W) Japan Women Empowerment League |
1-1 | 3-2 | 5 | 0 | W |
| 05/09 | Urawa Red Diamonds (W) Japan Women Empowerment League |
1-3 | 1-3 | 6 | 1 | L |
| 29/08 | AC Nagano Parceiro (W) Japan Women Empowerment League |
1-1 | 4-1 | 5 | 0 | W |
| 23/08 | JEF Utd Chiba (W) Japan Women Empowerment League |
1-1 | 2-1 | 4 | 1 | W |
| 16/05 | Albirex Niigata (W) Japan Women Empowerment League |
0-0 | 2-1 | 7 | 1 | W |
| 10/05 | Urawa Red Diamonds (W) Japan Women Empowerment League |
0-1 | 0-1 | 5 | 0 | L |
| 03/05 | Sanfrecce Hiroshima (W) Japan Women Empowerment League |
0-2 | 0-2 | 3 | 1 | L |
| 25/04 | JEF Utd Chiba (W) Japan Women Empowerment League |
0-0 | 1-0 | 10 | 0 | W |
| 05/04 | Chifure AS Elfen Saitama (W) Japan Women Empowerment League |
0-0 | 0-1 | 9 | 1 | L |
Cerezo Osaka (W)
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 25/10 | Omiya Ardija (W) Japan Women Empowerment League |
0-0 | 2-1 | 7 | 0 | W |
| 18/10 | Nojima (W) Japan Women Empowerment League |
2-1 | 2-2 | 6 | 1 | D |
| 05/09 | Sanfrecce Hiroshima (W) Japan Women Empowerment League |
0-0 | 0-1 | 4 | 0 | L |
| 30/08 | JEF Utd Chiba (W) Japan Women Empowerment League |
2-0 | 3-1 | 3 | 2 | W |
| 23/08 | Albirex Niigata (W) Japan Women Empowerment League |
0-1 | 1-1 | 10 | 2 | D |
| 16/05 | AC Nagano Parceiro (W) Japan Women Empowerment League |
0-1 | 1-1 | 0 | 3 | D |
| 10/05 | Sanfrecce Hiroshima (W) Japan Women Empowerment League |
0-0 | 0-0 | 3 | 0 | D |
| 03/05 | JEF Utd Chiba (W) Japan Women Empowerment League |
1-0 | 1-0 | 2 | 3 | W |
| 26/04 | Nojima (W) Japan Women Empowerment League |
0-1 | 0-3 | 4 | 0 | L |
| 04/04 | Urawa Red Diamonds (W) Japan Women Empowerment League |
– | 2-3 | – | – | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Nippon TV Tokyo Verdy Beleza (W) vs Cerezo Osaka (W)?
According to our model, the most likely result is a Nippon TV Tokyo Verdy Beleza (W) win (59%). Probabilities: Nippon TV Tokyo Verdy Beleza (W) 59%, draw 22%, Cerezo Osaka (W) 19%.
How many goals are expected in Nippon TV Tokyo Verdy Beleza (W) vs Cerezo Osaka (W)?
The model expects 3.29 goals (Nippon TV Tokyo Verdy Beleza (W) 2.13 · Cerezo Osaka (W) 1.16), with a 55% chance of over 2.75 goals.
Will both teams score in Nippon TV Tokyo Verdy Beleza (W) vs Cerezo Osaka (W)?
The model gives a 56% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.