Football · Japan Women Empowerment League · 28/10, 11:00
Prediction: AC Nagano Parceiro (W) vs Omiya Ardija (W)
Team pages: AC Nagano Parceiro (W) · Omiya Ardija (W)
Prediction summary
Expected goals
2.27Total
AC Nagano Parceiro (W)0.86
Omiya Ardija (W)1.42
1X2
AC Nagano Parceiro (W)
Draw
Omiya Ardija (W)
Markets
Under 2.5 goals 56%
Both teams to score 50%
Most likely score
1-1 14%
Recent form · 10 last
AC Nagano Parceiro (W)
0-4-6 (W-D-L)
Omiya Ardija (W)
2-2-6 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
AC Nagano Parceiro (W)
2–2–2
Omiya Ardija (W)
(6 last)
- Omiya Ardija (W)2-0AC Nagano Parceiro (W)
- AC Nagano Parceiro (W)1-2Omiya Ardija (W)
- Omiya Ardija (W)2-3AC Nagano Parceiro (W)
- AC Nagano Parceiro (W)1-1Omiya Ardija (W)
- AC Nagano Parceiro (W)2-0Omiya Ardija (W)
- Omiya Ardija (W)0-0AC Nagano Parceiro (W)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · AC Nagano Parceiro (W) 1375 · Omiya Ardija (W) 1474
| AC Nagano Parceiro (W) | Draw | Omiya Ardija (W) | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 21% | 30% | 49% |
| Market | 23% | 26% | 51% |
Estimated total (ours)
2.27 goals · Bet365 line 2.5 · -0.2
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 62%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Omiya Ardija (W) (rating 1375 vs 1474).
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| AC Nagano Parceiro (W) | Omiya Ardija (W) | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 0.7 / 2.1 | 0.7 / 1.5 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.6 / 0.7 | 0.1 / 0.6 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 20/60/20% | 10/40/50% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 2.2 / 4.6 | 2 / 3.9 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 1.2 / 0 | 0.7 / 0 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · AC Nagano Parceiro (W) 2–2–2 Omiya Ardija (W)
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 13/09/26 Japan League Cup Women | Omiya Ardija (W) | 2-0 HT 0-0 | AC Nagano Parceiro (W) |
| 09/11/25 Japan Women Empowerment League | AC Nagano Parceiro (W) | 1-2 HT 0-2 | Omiya Ardija (W) |
| 24/08/25 Japan Women Empowerment League | Omiya Ardija (W) | 2-3 HT 1-3 | AC Nagano Parceiro (W) |
| 09/03/25 Japan Women Empowerment League | AC Nagano Parceiro (W) | 1-1 HT 0-1 | Omiya Ardija (W) |
| 06/11/24 Japan League Cup Women | AC Nagano Parceiro (W) | 2-0 HT 1-0 | Omiya Ardija (W) |
| 14/10/24 Japan Women Empowerment League | Omiya Ardija (W) | 0-0 HT 0-0 | AC Nagano Parceiro (W) |
Standings · Japan Women Empowerment League
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Urawa Red Diamonds (W) | 5 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 12 | 4 | 12 |
| 2 | Nippon TV Tokyo Verdy Beleza (W) | 5 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 14 | 8 | 12 |
| 3 | JEF Utd Chiba (W) | 6 | 4 | 0 | 2 | 9 | 7 | 12 |
| 4 | INAC Leonessa (W) | 7 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 14 | 13 | 10 |
| 5 | Sanfrecce Hiroshima (W) | 5 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 7 | 5 | 9 |
| 6 | Cerezo Osaka (W) | 5 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 8 | 6 | 8 |
| 7 | Nojima (W) | 6 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 6 | 11 | 8 |
| 8 | Mynavi Sendai (W) | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 9 | 11 | 7 |
| 9 | Chifure AS Elfen Saitama (W) | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 6 | 8 | 7 |
| 10 | Albirex Niigata (W) | 6 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 5 | 7 | 5 |
| 11 | AC Nagano Parceiro (W) | 6 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 9 | 3 |
| 12 | Omiya Ardija (W) | 5 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 3 | 8 | 3 |
Common opponents 5 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | AC Nagano Parceiro (W) | Omiya Ardija (W) |
|---|---|---|
| Sanfrecce Hiroshima (W) | 0-1 L | 0-2 L |
| Albirex Niigata (W) | 0-0 D | 2-1 W |
| Chifure AS Elfen Saitama (W) | 0-0 D | 0-2 L |
| INAC Leonessa (W) | 2-2 D | 1-2 L |
| Cerezo Osaka (W) | 1-1 D | 1-2 L |
| Record vs common | 0 W 4 D 1 L | 1 W 0 D 4 L |
Better against common opponents: AC Nagano Parceiro (W) (4 of 5 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
AC Nagano Parceiro (W)
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 25/10 | Sanfrecce Hiroshima (W) Japan Women Empowerment League |
0-0 | 0-1 | 6 | 1 | L |
| 17/10 | Albirex Niigata (W) Japan Women Empowerment League |
0-0 | 0-0 | 4 | 2 | D |
| 05/09 | Chifure AS Elfen Saitama (W) Japan Women Empowerment League |
0-0 | 0-0 | 7 | 1 | D |
| 02/09 | INAC Leonessa (W) Japan Women Empowerment League |
2-1 | 2-2 | 3 | 1 | D |
| 29/08 | Nippon TV Tokyo Verdy Beleza (W) Japan Women Empowerment League |
1-1 | 1-4 | 1 | 0 | L |
| 23/08 | Mynavi Sendai (W) Japan Women Empowerment League |
1-1 | 1-2 | 10 | 1 | L |
| 16/05 | Cerezo Osaka (W) Japan Women Empowerment League |
1-0 | 1-1 | 4 | 3 | D |
| 10/05 | Mynavi Sendai (W) Japan Women Empowerment League |
0-1 | 0-1 | 6 | 1 | L |
| 03/05 | INAC Leonessa (W) Japan Women Empowerment League |
0-2 | 1-5 | 3 | 1 | L |
| 25/04 | Sanfrecce Hiroshima (W) Japan Women Empowerment League |
1-1 | 1-5 | 2 | 1 | L |
Omiya Ardija (W)
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 25/10 | Cerezo Osaka (W) Japan Women Empowerment League |
0-0 | 1-2 | 3 | 0 | L |
| 18/10 | Chifure AS Elfen Saitama (W) Japan Women Empowerment League |
0-0 | 0-2 | 5 | 1 | L |
| 05/09 | Albirex Niigata (W) Japan Women Empowerment League |
0-1 | 2-1 | 7 | 0 | W |
| 29/08 | Sanfrecce Hiroshima (W) Japan Women Empowerment League |
0-1 | 0-2 | 2 | 0 | L |
| 22/08 | Urawa Red Diamonds (W) Japan Women Empowerment League |
0-1 | 0-1 | 1 | 1 | L |
| 16/05 | Nojima (W) Japan Women Empowerment League |
0-2 | 0-4 | 3 | 1 | L |
| 10/05 | JEF Utd Chiba (W) Japan Women Empowerment League |
0-0 | 1-1 | 3 | 2 | D |
| 02/05 | Albirex Niigata (W) Japan Women Empowerment League |
0-0 | 0-0 | 6 | 1 | D |
| 26/04 | Urawa Red Diamonds (W) Japan Women Empowerment League |
1-0 | 2-0 | 5 | 0 | W |
| 05/04 | INAC Leonessa (W) Japan Women Empowerment League |
0-1 | 1-2 | 4 | 1 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in AC Nagano Parceiro (W) vs Omiya Ardija (W)?
According to our model, the most likely result is an Omiya Ardija (W) win (50%). Probabilities: AC Nagano Parceiro (W) 23%, draw 27%, Omiya Ardija (W) 50%.
How many goals are expected in AC Nagano Parceiro (W) vs Omiya Ardija (W)?
The model expects 2.27 goals (AC Nagano Parceiro (W) 0.86 · Omiya Ardija (W) 1.42), with a 56% chance of under 2.5 goals.
Will both teams score in AC Nagano Parceiro (W) vs Omiya Ardija (W)?
The model gives a 50% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.